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	<title>The B Flow &#187; NFL Lessons</title>
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		<title>NFL Musings &#8211; Week 9</title>
		<link>http://thebflow.com/nfl-musings-week-9-176/</link>
		<comments>http://thebflow.com/nfl-musings-week-9-176/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:02:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tide182</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Musings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFL Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebflow.com/?p=176</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[And what a week it was in the NFL this past week; a week where we saw the ghosts of creamsicles past shock the Packers, the Broncos and Steelers be who the Flow thought they were, the Tribal Leaders launch one of the most excruciatingly irrelevant covers in recent memory, the Bears petition for Tennessee&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And what a week it was in the NFL this past week; a week where we saw the <a title="creamsicles past" href="http://farm1.static.flickr.com/142/329076390_fc5d28daa2_o.jpg" target="_blank">ghosts of creamsicles past </a>shock the Packers, the Broncos and Steelers be who the Flow thought they were, the Tribal Leaders launch one of the most excruciatingly irrelevant covers in recent memory, the Bears petition for Tennessee&#8217;s spot in the WTE division, and the Bengals&#8230;well the Bengals were just great.  While this week&#8217;s picks weren&#8217;t dominant record wise, the comments behind the picks certainly bode well for a second half kick for the Flow as really only the 4th quarter massacre in the Bay of Pigs Bowl and Dallas&#8217; continued resurgence truly surprised us.  With that in mind, let&#8217;s take a walk through some weekly musings on the games that were:</p>
<p><span id="more-176"></span><strong>To Consider:<br />
</strong></p>
<p>1) Enough with the pregame circle jerks starring Ray &#8220;When does this start getting embarrassing for me after we give up 400 yards of offense weekly&#8221; Lewis and Brian &#8220;I&#8217;ve been on this team for half a season and I&#8217;m already yelling about protecting this house&#8221; Dawkins.  I mean, seriously, have you seen these yahoos?  <a title="here's" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTghpkNQEM0" target="_blank">Here&#8217;s</a> Ray Lewis doing one from some recent game vs. the Giants, and here&#8217;s Dawkins doing <a title="his version" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzxYEAeuRO8" target="_blank">his version</a> plus a cheesy postgame speech.  Of course, you don&#8217;t need to see those videos because you were probably watching either CBS&#8217; or ESPN&#8217;s NFL coverage at some point this weekend, and there is nothing those two networks love more than to show a bunch of players hopping up and down in a circle 30 minutes before kickoff around some maniac yelling about disrespect (a maniac who is disrespected to the tune of being paid millions of dollars to play football, btw), protecting &#8220;his house,&#8221; declaring &#8211; completely contradictory to the fact that the other gentlemen are, in fact, in uniform ready to play &#8211; that the other team &#8220;doesn&#8217;t want to play us,&#8221; or some sort of &#8220;bring the pain&#8221; mantra.  I saw two such displays this weekend: first, Ray Lewis right before his defense got rolled right over in the first half by a far more <a title="out of nowhere" href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/cover-3/2009/cover-3-out-nowhere" target="_blank">physical Bengals offense</a>, and secondly Dawkins about 30 minutes and one half before the more physical Steelers completely wore down the Broncos undersized defense.  Moral of the story: these little plays are ridiculous publicity stunts that may even deteriorate athletic performance through over-exertion and dehydration more than they actually perform any type of &#8220;pumping up.&#8221;  Perhaps the Ravens should be less concerned about being pumped up, and more concerned with overrunning their gaps and playing disciplined defense so that <a title="this" href="http://www.nfl.com/videos/cincinnati-bengals/09000d5d8140797b/WK-9-Cedric-Benson-highlights" target="_blank">this</a> doesn&#8217;t happen anymore.  I mean, really, a) these things happen 30 minutes before the game kicks off, so any potential adrenaline created has more than dissipated over that time, b) the other teams could care less what sort of dances you&#8217;re doing, especially when they aren&#8217;t even on the field and have already beaten you once this season, and finally c) ever heard of <a title="murtaugh" href="http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0002926/" target="_blank">Murtaugh</a>?  You guys are <a title="too old" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc43BBdxoCA" target="_blank">too old</a> for this sh*t.</p>
<p>2) Getting back to football for a second, we&#8217;ve also confirmed once and for all the blueprint to beat the Broncos.  We linked to Pete Prisco&#8217;s take on this after the Baltimore game last week, and we also mentioned our suspicion that the Broncos were especially vulnerable to big, physical football teams at the point of attack.  While the Broncos showed pretty well in the first half Monday night, they borderline collapsed in the second as Rashard Mendenhall gashed them for over 150 yards on the ground and Kyle Orton self-destructed on the other side of the ball.  As we&#8217;ve mentioned all along, Denver must be perfect to win against good, physical teams and they were not on Monday.  The problem, of course, is that to wear Denver down you&#8217;ve got to be in the lead early &#8211; no easy feat considering the Broncos outstanding first half defense &#8211; and be able to prevent the Broncos from leading their trademarked 9 play 51 yard drives for punts to win field position that also milk like 6 minutes off the clock.  What the Steelers and Ravens are both excellent at, and what other teams will try to do, is to mix up a lot of blitzes with fire zones behind them to clog passing lanes on the short hot routes.  Orton has struggled to read these zones, and the Denver O-Line is on the smaller side, making it vulnerable to big, bull rushing linebackers and strong nosetackle play.  The result has not been pretty, as it does seem as if defenses are figuring out the fact that Orton cannot throw accurately beyond 15 yards at this point, so the ball is in Josh McDaniels&#8217; court as far as adjusting back to the league&#8217;s initial adjustments to him.  Denver&#8217;s remaining schedule &#8211; like many of the AFC contenders &#8211; contains 4 very winnable games (@WAS, @KC, OAK, KC) and 4 tougher games (SD, NYG, @IND, @PHI).  I&#8217;m not convinced this Denver team is collapsing like last year&#8217;s, but I feel pretty good about the Broncos only going 1-3 in those toughies, leaving them potentially 11-5 if they sweep the easy ones.  In this year&#8217;s AFC they will need to do that, but given that two of their tough ones would be out of conference losses, their playoff chances are still pretty good.</p>
<p>3) Peter King would like to announce that &#8220;<a title="arizona" href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/11/08/mmqb/4.html" target="_blank">Arizona&#8217;s dangerous</a>.&#8221;  Mmk, check, glad to hear Peter hasn&#8217;t written off the division leading, NFC defending champions.</p>
<p>4) Peter King would also like to announce Michael Oher &#8211; yes, that Michael Oher &#8211; as his <a title="wow" href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/11/10/all-pro.team/index.html?eref=sihp" target="_blank">ALL PRO RIGHT TACKLE</a> for midseason.  Before I get on a rant here, and believe me one is coming, let me first say I think Michael Oher is probably a really nice kid, certainly a promising prospect, and I wish him nothing but the best for him going forward.  Now, here&#8217;s the only other person who probably voted for Oher as a midseason All-Pro:</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="Midseason All-Pro?!" src="http://www2.pictures.gi.zimbio.com/2009+NFL+Scouting+Combine+Day+3+X45MzbNB3tCl.jpg" alt="" width="396" height="594" /></p>
<p>Here&#8217;s what TMQ had to say about Oher in his <a title="weekly article" href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/091110&amp;sportCat=nfl" target="_blank">weekly article</a>:</p>
<p><em>The Nevermores&#8217; offensive line is a mess &#8212; it allowed four sacks against Cincinnati, while clearing few rushing lanes &#8212; and the offensive line is always the best window into a team&#8217;s psychology. Right now, rookie left tackle Michael Oher looks terrible. Oher has, at a tender age, already had a lifetime of complex emotional experiences, plus been the subject of a book that&#8217;s been made into a big-studio movie that opens next week. When Oher was drafted, <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/090428&amp;sportCat=nfl" target="new">TMQ noted</a>, &#8220;The true story of an impoverished African-American boy adopted by an affluent white family has obvious Hollywood appeal, but can any 22-year-old handle such media pressure?&#8221; Maybe Baltimore needs to take him out of the lineup for a while.</em></p>
<p>So one guy wants him to be benched, and the other calls him All-Pro?  Of course I am more inclined to side with Easterbrook here, but let&#8217;s be fair and go to the stats.  <a title="fo" href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com" target="_blank">Football Outsiders</a> uses something called Adjusted Line Yards to evaluate rushing success &#8211; and let&#8217;s start with rushing since run blocking is Oher&#8217;s strength &#8211; and we generally feel this is the best approximation of lineman success outside of detailed tape review.  I know Peter King has not done the latter, so let&#8217;s start with the stats.  On runs off right tackle, Oher&#8217;s position, the Ravens are averaging 4 ALY per carry, a respectable 16th in the league.  Oher has also played some left tackle, so let&#8217;s use those as well, and we see a slightly worse 3.66 ALY figure, good for 19th best.  These numbers aren&#8217;t too shabby, except when we look at the fact that overall Baltimore ranks 3rd in the league at ALY and they excel specifically at runs between the guards and all the way around right end.  Now, maybe Oher is awesome at sealing the corner, but the fact that the Ravens aren&#8217;t so great when running right behind him suggests to me that he isnt quite &#8220;uber dominant&#8221; yet as a run blocker, especially considering how inferior they have been behind him as compared to everywhere else.  Also, according to at least <a title="one count" href="http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2009/10/22/between-the-lines-which-tackles-are-starring-and-which-ones-are/" target="_blank">one count</a>, Oher had given up 2.5 sacks as of October 22, and while sacks are often as much a result of the QB as the O-Line (paging Rodgers, Aaron) the fact of the matter is Flacco has been going down.  To put that in perspective elite RT&#8217;s have been known to go SEASONS without giving up a single sack.  I have also personally watched, and read others who have watched Oher get beat up the field by speed rushers and then abused by double moves.  Look, I don&#8217;t know if Michael Oher is going to be great or not.  I&#8217;m pretty sure he could be, and I&#8217;m pretty sure he&#8217;s doing fine for a rookie.  That said, the idea, even the idea of having the idea, that he is remotely close to being the very best right tackle in the National Football League is somewhere between asinine and embarrassing.  Either Peter King opted to have a little fun with his RT pick on his midseason All-Pro team, or&#8230;  well you get the idea.</p>
<p>5) Moving on from Peter King, let&#8217;s leave you with some quick hits Peter King style just so he isn&#8217;t too angry at me (obvious sarcasm since he has more people following him for his &#8220;coffeenerdness,&#8221; ugh I can&#8217;t even say it without cringing, than I will ever have in my entire lifetime):</p>
<p>a) Houston is a good football team.  They also have 4-5 easily winnable games left and just went toe to toe with the    Colts.  This team is  a legitimate playoff contender.  Note: It&#8217;s almost strange how just about every relevant team left in the AFC has 4 easy games and 4 tough games left as opposed to anyone being especially skewed.</p>
<p>b) The whole Qwest Field advantage thing for the Seahawks is dead to me.  The Seahawks are dead to me.  That was the softest cover ever at home against the Lions and it took 5 Matt Stafford INT&#8217;s including a pick 6 with 22 ticks remaining to do it.  That pick 6, however, is why we gamble &#8211; what a worthless game, meaningless pick, even more meaningless return, but because the moron decides to take it to the house someone wins and someone loses.  Awesome.</p>
<p>c) The 49ers justified our concern with that putrid home performance, though to be fair Tennessee is looking quite a bit feistier lately thanks largely to the fact that excellent rushing qb&#8217;s like Vince Young almost always result in an uptick in performance from the team&#8217;s RB&#8217;s thanks to the added delay and attention opposing LB&#8217;s give the QB scramble option.  I&#8217;m tired and it&#8217;s late so I don&#8217;t have a link for that but remind me and I will, I promise it&#8217;s a real thing &#8211; FO writes about it all the time and I believe ESPN even had a piece on it this week.  Back to the 9ers, though, the fact of the matter is they don&#8217;t have an NFL QB, and when Alex Smith/Shaun Hill/Hannah Montana is behind center creating 4 turnovers a game, you put yourself in a tough spot.</p>
<p>d) An ESPN.com poll of about 32,000 people today displayed the fact that 53% of &#8220;SportsNation&#8221; considers the Bengals-Steelers showdown this week to be a bigger game than Pats-Colts.  As someone who has <a title="begun to tire" href="http://thebflow.com/could-it-be-181/" target="_blank">begun to tire</a> of the whole Manning-Brady &#8220;rivalry,&#8221; this struck me as progress.  In honor of that, we leave this week&#8217;s musings with a nice shot of one of the lovely Ben-Gals.  Enjoy.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="Go Bengals" src="http://www.faniq.com/images/blog/Bengals%281%29.jpg" alt="" width="320" height="476" /></p>
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		<title>NFL What We&#8217;ve Learned Week 3</title>
		<link>http://thebflow.com/nfl-what-weve-learned-week-3-60/</link>
		<comments>http://thebflow.com/nfl-what-weve-learned-week-3-60/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2009 01:07:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tide182</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL Lessons]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebflow.com/?p=60</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m baaacccckk!  I&#8217;m sure you all missed me, but after a self-imposed 4-day hiatus from life, I have returned to my post as your number 3243546 source for NFL fun!  I will spare you details, but suffice to say that Goldschlager and Jagermeister &#8211; combined in one &#8211; were involved.  Anyway, week 3 was a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m baaacccckk!  I&#8217;m sure you all missed me, but after a self-imposed 4-day hiatus from life, I have returned to my post as your number 3243546 source for NFL fun!  I will spare you details, but suffice to say that Goldschlager and Jagermeister &#8211; combined in one &#8211; were involved.  Anyway, week 3 was a good week for us stat-guys, the use of comparative box scores made for better predictions, and there was much learned!  So let&#8217;s get to it:</p>
<p><span id="more-60"></span><strong>What We Learned</strong></p>
<p><strong>1) </strong>Good lordy, lordy are the Cleveland Browns bad.  Suffering scribe Joe Posnanski has gone so far as to openly question, and then confirm, <a title="whether Eric Mangini was" href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/09/29/mangini/index.html" target="_blank">whether Eric Mangini was</a> the worst head-coaching hire in NFL history.  It is quite possible.  So far this season, the Bengals ugly Ohio stepsister ranks 32nd (dead last for you loonies who don&#8217;t know how many teams are in the NFL) in total offense, and 30th in total defense &#8211; ahead of only such luminaries as the Bucs and Texans (more on them later).  They are coming off a nice 34-3 thrashing at the hands of the admittedly very good Baltimore Ravens, a game where they were outgained 479-186, and were a net MINUS 17 in first downs.  Ouch, babe.</p>
<p><strong>2)</strong> Ouch, babe part deux: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!!!!!  Seriously, try to name the head coach of the Bucs right now.  Try.  Don&#8217;t look it up.  Tobes and I viewed a few minutes of their game with the Blue Man Crew this past Sunday and literally stared at him for 10 seconds, baffled as to why this gentleman was on camera, before I asked &#8220;hey, is that the head coach?&#8221;  We didn&#8217;t know.  Had to look it up.  Yep, <a title="this guy" href="http://www.pewterreport.com/img/articleImages/2009_01_17_700_Morrisheadsetsmall.jpg" target="_blank">this guy</a> is an NFL head coach, and you are not.  Went ahead and pulled up our pal Raheem&#8217;s <a title="wikipedia page" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raheem_Morris" target="_self">wikipedia page</a> &#8211; as we did with Tommy &#8220;Tommy Boy rage-a-holic&#8221; Cable &#8211; to see just who this gentleman is, and let me tell you, it is LOADED with gems.  First, it lists Morris as &#8220;Position: Head Coach, College: Hofstra,&#8221; no mention of what team, league, or college he might be the head coach of.  Where, the BFlow wonders, is his 40-time?  Next, we see a sparkling resume consisting of the following, listed chronologically to present: DB coach at Cornell for 2 seasons, DB coach at Hofstra for one season, something called a &#8220;defensive quality control&#8221; with the Bucs, a promotion to unclassified &#8220;defensive assistant&#8221; with Tampa for two years, then the coveted title of &#8220;assistant DB coach&#8221; with the Buccaneers for a season before finally being Defensive Coordinator at Kansas State, where his squads ranked 9th (30.8 PPG) and then t-10th (35.8 PPG) in scoring defense, and 8th (400.6 YPG) and then LAST (479.1 YPG!!!! HOLY CRAP) overall.  Morris parlayed this excellence into a return to the NFL last season as Tampa&#8217;s DB Coach &#8211; the head DB coach this time &#8211; under Monte Kiffin.  Somehow, and as far as we know Al Davis does not also run the Bucs, that resume earned Raheem Morris a head coaching job in the NFL.  Shockingly, in a related story, the Bucs are 0-3, were outgained by the Giants last week by 397-86, had 1 first down despite giving up 21 entering the 4th quarter, and have a O-Rank (I just made this up now and will continue to use it, let&#8217;s call it total offense rank plus total defense rank, so the Browns, for example, would have a 62 &#8220;O-Rank&#8221;) of a putrid 56 (25 offense, 31 defense).  Oh, one other thing.  Despite two OK weeks from QB Pocket Amoeba to start the year (again, more on him later), Morris pulled BFlow&#8217;s favorite horrific pudgy pocketman after going 7-16 for 22 (!) yards and an INT through 3 quarters.  This is defensible.  Unfortunately, the Amoeba&#8217;s backup, erstwhile Marlins right-hander Josh Johnson, went 4-10 for 36 yards and a scramble for 15 yards against the Giants 8th string defense in the fourth quarter, leading Morris to inexplicably announce Johnson as the starter for next week.  I can&#8217;t even make that up.  A guy goes 4-10 for 36 yards against an 8th string defense in garbage time and this earns him a start.  Ohh da pain.</p>
<p><strong>3) </strong>Ouch, babe, part troix!!!  That&#8217;s right, a 3rd ouch, babe!!  This one goes to the Kansas City Chiefs, proud owners of the league&#8217;s 30th ranked offense (I guess Todd Haley&#8217;s system hasn&#8217;t &#8220;kicked in&#8221; yet&#8230;) and 21st ranked D.  Last week, the Tribal Leaders were put down 34-14 by Kevin Kolb and Mike Vick, outgained to the tune of 420-196.  They gave up 21 first downs to their 10, and threw in 10 penalties just for good measure.  In case you didn&#8217;t think this resume was worth an ouch, babe, they lost to Fatso and the marauding Raiders in a game where he was, wait for it, 7 for 24 passing!  Between these 3 teams we are really looking at a tough competition for worst NFL team in some time.  Ouch, babe.</p>
<p><strong>4) </strong>Leaving the dregs of the league is necessary at this point, but like a SCUBA diver rising from the depths, we don&#8217;t want to ascend too quickly, so let&#8217;s make a pit stop at the now impossibly overrated Titans.  That&#8217;s right, the overrated 0-3 Titans.  Take a quick perusal around the national media this week and there are stories abound about how Jeff Fisher is sending a memo to the league that &#8220;it&#8217;s not over yet&#8221; (from, you guessed it, the immortal Peter King), and that the Titans have  a real chance to be the first team since the 1998 Bills (there, Bills fans, I said something nice about you) to make the playoffs after starting 0-3.  OK, write this down.  The Titans are not making the playoffs.  They will be lucky to go 8-8 at this point.  This team is not winning against Indy (5 total losses), not winning at NWE (6), not beating SD (7), and I don&#8217;t even think they sweep the newly feisty NFC West (give &#8216;em 8 right there).  This is also assuming they don&#8217;t stub their toe once the rest of the season vs. the Houstons, Jacksonville&#8217;s, Miami&#8217;s, and Buffa-err, any of those teams of the world.  These teams they&#8217;ve lost to so far are now the 1-2 Steelers, the 1-2 Texans, and the 3-0 Jets who &#8211; while we have discussed are wonderful defensively &#8211; have been showing some flaws and are not a lock as an elite team just yet.  It&#8217;s not that the Titans are a bad team, it&#8217;s just I don&#8217;t think they&#8217;re some sleeping, 13-3 giant lurking under the cover of an 0-3 facade.  They are who their record says they are, a pretty good, mediocre team.  Pretty good, mediocre teams that start 0-3 in tough conferences like this season&#8217;s AFC don&#8217;t make the playoffs.  Period.</p>
<p><strong>5) </strong>New England is pretty good, but in a new way.  The Pats actually showed a semblance of balance this past week against a Falcons D that, while hardly elite, is no slouch either.  Also, take a look at that defense holding down the Falcons aerial and Turner attack!  I guess Belichick can, in fact, coach, and when Brady starts clicking again &#8211; and I do believe he will &#8211; look out, this team will be a force.  Very quietly they&#8217;ve assembled the number 5 offense and number 6 defense in the league to this point.  Shhh&#8230; (side note: at the end of this article I will give you the full ranking of teams using O-Rank, it&#8217;s pretty insightful)</p>
<p><strong>6) </strong>Baltimore is just freaking scary, OK, scary.  It&#8217;s the Baltimore D we all know and love now added to the NFL&#8217;s number 2 offense.  That&#8217;s right, the Baltimore Ravens offense &#8211; thank you, Cam Cameron &#8211; is currently the number 2 offense in the NFL.  Not saying they finish there, but just that they have that potential should be scary enough.  Amongst these guys, the Pats, the Giants, the Colts, and maybe the Saints, Steelers, and Chargers (Bengals, Jets, Packers, Vikings, Broncos, Cowboys, Bears, Falcons, 9ers prob don&#8217;t belong in that discussion yet) there are some serious, serious teams this season.</p>
<p><strong>7)</strong> Houston Texans = fantasy goldmine for both them and their opponents.  Sweeeet.</p>
<p><strong> <img src='http://thebflow.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> </strong>Some more quick hits here as we move along, but Peyton Manning is OK at QB I think.</p>
<p><strong>9)</strong> F Jake Delhomme for screwing my Lost-Key Locks this week.  I was smart enough not to take him in my picks league, but I felt OK about the selection all the way through the 3rd quarter Monday night.  He&#8217;s just freaking pathetic.  And where is the damned Panthers D?  And Steve Smith is a whiny prima donna.</p>
<p><strong>10) </strong>I know their defensive statistics were fueled this week from a pretty fluky 2-14 on 3rd downs by the Billsies, but at this point the Saints certainly look like a more complete team.  At the very least their defense isn&#8217;t getting shredded like a Steamboat halfpipe in January this season.  SNAP!  Ohh, man I went there &#8211; I apologize.  On the plus side, the 222 yards rushing to carry the offense whilst Brees was making a fuel stop in mortality this week was reassuring for Saints believers.</p>
<p><strong>What we Still Don&#8217;t Know:</strong></p>
<p><strong>1) </strong>How the hell did I win my fantasy league last season?  I mean, really?  Through 3 weeks these have been my fantasy &#8220;hunches:&#8221; Week 1 &#8211; Ted Ginn = 2 points and now getting hammered by local press, Week 2 &#8211; Mark Clayton = 2 points and now largely 5th option in high-flying (still weird to say) Ravens attack, and finally the big one, Week 3 &#8211; Pocket Amoeba, fantasy sleeper = -2, that&#8217;s right MINUS TWO, points AND being benched for a Marlins pitcher.  INCREDIBLE.  You couldn&#8217;t even make that stuff about the Amoeba up!  Can&#8217;t wait for the following two things this week: 1) to curse somebody on my opponent this week with a &#8220;hunch&#8221; plaudit, 2) to check out Josh Johnson (NFL version)&#8217;s wikipedia page.  Over/Under on it&#8217;s word count?  125?</p>
<p><strong>2) </strong>I know you&#8217;ve all be waiting on this.  &#8220;Where&#8217;s the BFlow&#8217;s big Bengals comment,&#8221; you&#8217;re wondering.  &#8220;Where is he announcing a welcoming of the Bengals to the NFL&#8217;s elite with that comeback victory over the Steelers and a team that is one miracle deflection away from being 3-0?&#8221;  I&#8217;m right here in the &#8220;we don&#8217;t know&#8221; section, OK, because we just don&#8217;t know how good the Bengals are yet.  Through 3 games they have the 24th ranked offense and 16th ranked defense, and have at times looked more miserable than ever albeit with moments of glory interspersed.  I don&#8217;t want to say that this team isn&#8217;t as good as I thought it was, especially this week, but I&#8217;m just not sure.  Then again, can&#8217;t say I thought they were THAT good.  Sadly, the team does have the look of a feisty .500 team, no more.  Anyone who saw them gain minus-10 first quarter yards against Pittsburgh and give up 373 yards of total offense knows that this team, at the very least, is not great YET.  On the positive side they did run the ball well against the Steelers, and after a debacle of a first half the run defense stiffened (giggity) in the second half.  Strange as this sounds, we will actually learn more this week as well as next.  Bengals are really good if: they give the Browns a smackdown, and then compete with the Ravens in Baltimore.  Bengals are not so good if: they beat the Browns close, and then get smackdowned by Baltimore.  Bengals are total fluke if: they choke against Cleveland.</p>
<p><strong>3) </strong>How good are San Francisco and Minnesota in relation to the rest of the league, not each other?  It&#8217;s clear that both of these teams are pretty good (that&#8217;s a good thing for 49ers fans, not particularly noteworthy for Vikings fans), but it is not clear how good they are.  Minnesota has beaten only San Francisco of note, and the 49ers have simply put themselves atop the early round robin of the NFL&#8217;s worst division.  We won&#8217;t learn anything about the 9ers this week vs. St. Louis other than if they are remotely competitive without Frank Gore, but we should learn something about Minnesota on Monday Night in the QB-who-shall-not-be-named bowl.  For what it&#8217;s worth I like the Packers a lot in that one at this point, read into that what you will re San Francisco.</p>
<p><strong>4) </strong>And what of the Eagles?  Proud owners of two romps, and regretful receiver of one of the same at the hands of New Orleans, how good, or not good, are the Eagles?  Sadly, we shan&#8217;t find out until week 8, as the upcoming Birds schedule consists of: Bye, a tour de Pirates (TB and OAK), and then @ Washington before they get stuck with a real show-me sequence of NYG, DAL, @SD and @CHI.  Just worry about getting McNabb and Westbrook back for week 8, Eagles fans.</p>
<p><strong>5) </strong>Touching on this MNF game again, I am really excited for it for many reasons, none of which have to do with what color number 4 is wearing.  I&#8217;m not sure yet how good the Packers are &#8211; they look really pretty in box scores, but I&#8217;m not convinced they&#8217;re a really good team yet.  Not convinced they aren&#8217;t either, but let&#8217;s start with the Vikings&#8230;</p>
<p><strong>6) </strong>Time to find out what Denver&#8217;s all about!  They were everyone&#8217;s favorite laughing stock all offseason, and now, understandably, everyone is a little cautious to jump on the wagon following a 3-0 start over two laughingstocks and one question mark thanks to a fluke play.  They host Dallas this week in a game to weed out one pretender, then host New England before traveling to San Diego.  I know you&#8217;ve already read this everywhere this week, so I apologize, and will offer my B-strodamus prediction of events: 1) Denver beats Dallas, entire sports world overreacts, calls Denver awesome at 4-0, Peter King moves Broncos to top of his &#8220;fine fifteen&#8221; and annoints Josh McDaniels next presidential candidate since he is spawn de Belichick, 2) New England beats Denver close, causing more and more Bronco hysteria, King &#8220;master still bests pupil&#8221; story re Belichick and McDaniels, Adam Schefter reports Brandon Marshall has been arrested for smoking marijuana, Mark Schlereth calls him selfish, Merril Hoge says it doesn&#8217;t matter &#8220;this team is good on tape,&#8221; Don Banks notes what a &#8220;great loss&#8221; this was, and Peter Prisco continues to defend his preseason Bengals playoff pick by noting how this Broncos legitimacy shows how good the Bengals are despite them getting smacked 31-0 at Baltimore earlier in the day, and finally 3) San Diego issues the Broncos a 49-3 defeat, the Broncos slide to 8-8, and all is right in the world.</p>
<p><strong>7) </strong>I will not address the Bears potential legitimacy this week following my earlier rants on their illegitimacy.  Beating Seneca Wallace does not serve to provide meaningful data to further this discussion, especially when the game gave us such a magnificent Mora press conference.  Me addressing the Bears this week?  Not acceptable.  We&#8217;ll take a look at everything, but you&#8217;re writing an NFL column, you give me that game, and then ask me to talk about the Bears?  Not gonna happen.</p>
<p><strong> <img src='http://thebflow.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> </strong>Is Jacksonville really so bad?  Or are they just really good against teams they know in their division and hideous elsewhere?  Consider: now impressive close loss vs. Indy, 13-10, absolute embarrassment vs Arizona, followed by nice win over Houston 31-24 on the road.  They get Tennessee at home &#8211; probably a disadvantage at this point considering about 12 people showed up last game &#8211; this week so we may not find out whether its just a quirky divisional thing or what, but I have a sneaky suspicion this Jags team isn&#8217;t terrible.  I don&#8217;t mean 10-6 not terrible, I just mean not 4-12 not terrible.</p>
<p><strong>9) </strong>I am getting tired and bored so now seems like a good time to bring up the Lions.  Nice job on the win, Lions.  That&#8217;s it, now return to irrelevance and PLEASE stop showing up on my TV during Thanksgiving.  Thanks.</p>
<p><strong>10)</strong> So you&#8217;ve made it to the end again, bravo!  To continue a little tradition, here&#8217;s a quick <a title="prize (pnsfw)" href="http://www.hollywoodtuna.com/?p=10334" target="_blank">prize</a> for all of my most loyal reader(s).  <img src='http://thebflow.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>Sorry, late addition, the O-Rank rankings (ie combined offense and defense rank)</p>
<p>1) NY Giants (8 total)</p>
<p>2) Baltimore (9)</p>
<p>3) Denver (10)</p>
<p>4) (tie) New England (11)</p>
<p>4) (tie) New Orleans (11)</p>
<p>6) Philadelphia (12)</p>
<p>7) Indianapolis (16)</p>
<p> <img src='http://thebflow.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> Pittsburgh (20)</p>
<p>9) Seattle (21)</p>
<p>10) (tie) Minnesota (22)</p>
<p>10) (tie) San Diego (22)</p>
<p>12) NY Jets (24)</p>
<p>13) Washington (28)</p>
<p>14) (tie) Chicago (29)</p>
<p>14) (tie) Tennessee (29)</p>
<p>14) (tie) Dallas (29)</p>
<p>17) Arizona (34)</p>
<p>18) Miami (36)</p>
<p>19) Cincinnati (40)</p>
<p>20) (tie) Green Bay (41)</p>
<p>20) (tie) Jacksonville (41)</p>
<p>22) San Francisco (42)</p>
<p>23) Buffalo (45)</p>
<p>24) (tie) Atlanta (47)</p>
<p>24) (tie) Houston (47)</p>
<p>26) Carolina (48)</p>
<p>27) Kansas City (51)</p>
<p>28) (tie) Detroit (54)</p>
<p>28 (tie) Oakland (54)</p>
<p>30) Tampa Bay (56)</p>
<p>31) St. Louis (57)</p>
<p>32) Cleveland (62)</p>
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		<title>NFL What We&#8217;ve Learned Week 2!!!!</title>
		<link>http://thebflow.com/nfl-what-weve-learned-week-2-31/</link>
		<comments>http://thebflow.com/nfl-what-weve-learned-week-2-31/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2009 02:39:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tide182</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL Lessons]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebflow.com/?p=31</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s the first week of comparative box scores, yayy!!!!  Flukes can happen in one week, but if something happens twice in a row, well, it doesn&#8217;t necessarily mean it&#8217;s true &#8211; after all you could have played the Browns and Lions (hello Vikings) &#8211; but it certainly is enough now to help begin to form [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s the first week of comparative box scores, yayy!!!!  Flukes can happen in one week, but if something happens twice in a row, well, it doesn&#8217;t necessarily mean it&#8217;s true &#8211; after all you could have played the Browns and Lions (hello Vikings) &#8211; but it certainly is enough now to help begin to form some factually based adjustments to our preseason assumptions.  So a quick intro this week, and let&#8217;s take a look at what we&#8217;ve learned &#8211; and what we haven&#8217;t &#8211; through 2 weeks of NFL 2009:</p>
<p><span id="more-31"></span><strong>What We&#8217;ve Learned:</strong></p>
<p>1) Let&#8217;s start with what we can take away from the major showdown in San Diego between the Bolts and Ne&#8217;ermores.  The Chargers are still a good football team, for one.  For two, the Ravens are an awfully good football team.  Now I did get a chance to see this game on NFL Network Replay &#8211; and I will be sure to point out if I&#8217;m making a statement about teams I have not actually seen this season, and only read box scores and game summaries &#8211; and I think we can safely say the following: first, despite giving up 26 points, the Ravens D is really good.  However, they can be beaten deep &#8211; and consistently &#8211; but it takes a good QB who can spot the (frequent) single coverage as well as big, athletic receivers that can make the jump ball plays.  You are not going to simply drive the ball down the field on this defense, SD knew it, and knew they could match up well down the field.  Frankly, I could have seen them winning the game with a real running back (just a second on this one) and a healthy O-Line.  Second, Darren &#8220;wow that dude is small&#8221; Sproles, is simply not an NFL starting running back.  He is a magical return man.  He is also a magical guy on screens.  But if you&#8217;re gameplanning for this team with Sproles in the backfield, you KNOW you can stop him on the ground.  He&#8217;s not MJD or Slaton part trois, he does not have the leg strength to break tackles, he has to be in space and avoid them.  That&#8217;s fine, not saying he can&#8217;t be effective in spurts, but he can&#8217;t take a carry up the gut and get anything, he did not break a tackle all day once someone got his hands on him.  I&#8217;m not sure the Chargers &#8220;need&#8221; LaDanian Tomlinson, but they sure as heck &#8220;need&#8221; a running back, not a scat back.  Sproles will continue to be effective in fantasy purposes, but it&#8217;s going to be tough to win games against tough defenses with him starting at RB.  Fortunately for SD, as I alluded to, Baltimore&#8217;s big defensive weaknesses are screens and deep balls &#8211; hello Sproles and tall wideouts!  Third, and finally, Baltimore has a really good offense now.  Cam Cameron is a hell of an O-Coordinator, and while Flacco certainly still makes mistakes under pressure, you are going to have to deal with a hellacious three-headed monster at RB in Maryland&#8217;s metropolis.  Important note: specifically watched Michael Oher of Blindsided fame on about 20 plays.  He cannot pass block against a speed rusher around the edge.  He must get help there.  He&#8217;s not particularly deft at handling the inside spin there either.  I think that&#8217;s somewhere that Ravens opponents can really attack to get to Flacco going forward, despite Oher being a strong run blocker.</p>
<p>2) OK that was a really long (1), so I apologize, but that was a big-time game so I felt it was important to share some thoughts.  For (2), let&#8217;s just say that Tennessee&#8217;s pass defense is &#8230; well, it&#8217;s <a title="not good" href="http://www.nfl.com/videos/houston-texans/09000d5d812dc48e/NFL-Weekly-Countdown-6-Houston-We-Have-TDs" target="_blank">not good</a>.  Both Pittsburgh and Houston found MAJOR &#8220;Hole in Zone&#8221; coverages these first two weeks &#8211; maybe missing Jim Schwartz a bit there after all?  Before moving on, I also want to note here that we can be pretty sure Stevie Slaton is OK.  I know Gary Kubiak is throwing him under the bus &#8211; and he did fumble twice &#8211; but the guy has gone up against the newly awesome Jets D (more on this later) and a Tennessee D which may or may not be aware that the forward pass has, in fact, been legalized.  Houston gets JAX this week, and Slaton gets a &#8220;redemption&#8221; week.</p>
<p>3) Annnd here it is: the Jets D is awesome.  I know I might be overreacting since the Texans may not be so awesome and the Pats are clearly not 2007&#8217;s Pats right now, but come on.  The Jets lead the league in YPG allowed at a paltry 241, and also rank an impressive tied for 2nd in the underrated 1st downs allowed per game.  They&#8217;ve given up 16 points &#8211; total &#8211; and they aren&#8217;t doing it with lucky turnovers at opportune times or an unsustainable 3rd down stop percentage (hello Seattle).  I&#8217;m going to expand on this next week, but I believe there is a strong correlation between total yardage allowed and expected 3rd down percentage &#8211; this is a play off of the Football Outsiders proven assertion that 3rd down success does not carry over year-to-year relative to 1st and 2nd down performance.  Essentially, if you&#8217;re good, you&#8217;re good, and if you&#8217;re not, you&#8217;re not, no matter what down it is.  If you happen to be excessively better or worse than your standard production on 3rd down, well, it&#8217;s probably a fluke.  That said, in a short 16 game season, it is certainly well within the realm of statistical probability that a team performs abnormally on 3rd down for a season, but generally speaking this should not happen.  Basically, to get back to the point, the Jets D is not suffering from this or any other fluky problem, they&#8217;re really good, and really confusing.  Consider, Rex Ryan&#8217;s defenses last season were in the top 10 in percentage of the time they rushed 3, 5, and 7 gentlemen &#8211; the only such team in the NFL.  How&#8217;s a QB supposed to deal with pressure when he doesn&#8217;t know who, when, or from where it&#8217;s coming!?</p>
<p>4) Easy one here, Jamarcus &#8220;Fatso&#8221; Russell &#8211; and like the Pocket Amoeba (more on him later), Fatso will now simply be known as Fatso on this blog &#8211; cannot play QB in the NFL.  He simply cannot.  Can we get Merril Hoge on this?  Can we get a Mark Schlereth overreaction using the fact that he was a SUPER BOWL WINNING OFFENSIVE LINEMAN (!) as evidence that he is correct?  Jeez, when you actually need these guys flipping out on something where are they?</p>
<p>5) Drew Brees &gt; OK.  Do you think if life gave Drew Brees lemons he&#8217;d just say &#8220;F it, I&#8217;m making some sweet ass lemon sorbet&#8221; while the rest of us do-gooders are stuck with pigeon toes and a pitcher of sour lemonade?</p>
<p>6) Detroit really sucks.  I mean they&#8217;re terrible.  Minnesota essentially ran their C package out there last week, handing off to Adrian Peterson only 15 times in a game they led throughout the second half.  Favre was 23 for 27 and basically throwing 3 yard outs and 4 yard ins all game.  Literally, they toyed with this team.  Stafford was terrible, and clearly is not ready to be a starting quarterback, a fact that Coach Schwartz has apparently opted to ignore when stating &#8220;Matt Stafford is our starting quarterback.&#8221;  Detroit did everything they could to protect him, running time and again into the impenetrable wall that is the Vikings run D, but still Stafford sported only an 18-30, 152, 1 and 2 on the day.  That defense is OK, but the offense is just, ugh.  It&#8217;s become a trendy media pick to take Detroit to break their 19 &#8211; yes, 19, and somehow that is only 2nd in NFL history &#8211; game losing streak this week at home vs. the team that shall not be watched which resides in the nation&#8217;s capital.  I&#8217;m not going to say it&#8217;s impossible just because I can&#8217;t watch Washington either, but the Indiginous Persons with the Roland Garros Pigmentation do have a strong defense, and how is Detroit planning on scoring?  If I&#8217;m them, I literally deep bomb to MegaTron every single play and hope the TD&#8217;s outnumber the pick 6&#8217;s.  It&#8217;s an interesting spread right now at 6.5, since I have to believe this game will be decided by less than that, but at the same time I can&#8217;t see the Lions actually winning.  Blech.</p>
<p>7) Atlanta Falcons are a good football team.  I know this to be true.  It may seem premature after wins over Miami and Carolina, but take a look at that Carolina game again.  That was the good Carolina, not the Jake Delhomme meltdown Carolina.  Good win for them, nice bounce back for Ryan, if the Pats beat them this week that will be a real statement for them, not a bad job by ATL necessarily.</p>
<p> <img src='http://thebflow.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> Seattle stinks without Hasselbeck, but I still think they&#8217;re the best team in that crapfest of a division with him.  Consider, when he got hurt it was 13-3, but he had the Neon Green Eyed folk deep in enemy territory which quickly led to a TD without him, so really it was 13-10.  Frank Gore broke a couple of shocking runs, but you can&#8217;t tell me that the Seahawks weren&#8217;t winning that game in the 2nd half with Hasselbeck.  They were moving the football, and I think would have continued to do so with him.  Seneca Wallace may be a nice guy and a solid mix up option, but the idea of a small, scrambling QB being a west coast offense pocket passer just doesn&#8217;t work.  Seattle cannot contend without Hasselbeck.</p>
<p>9) Pittsburgh really can&#8217;t run the football.  The Bears &#8211; as I ranted on last week &#8211; are certainly not the Great Wall of China on the line of scrimmage, and although the Titans are stout, the Steelers couldn&#8217;t even get a small sniff against them.  I did see Rashard Mendenhall remind folks that he is still, in fact, in the NFL with a nice little 39-yard run, and perhaps this is the start of something for him and he can unseat Willie &#8220;Averages 1 YPC All Game and Then Possibly Breaks One&#8221; Parker as starting RB?  I can dream.</p>
<p>10) Obligatory Bengals observation, here fittingly following the Steelers note considering they square off in a huge early season divisional battle this week: that Bengals D, as promised here last week, is really good.  They aren&#8217;t forcing turnovers, but they essentially gave up 10 points last week to the prodigious Packers, including holding Greg Jennings to zero catches and a game-ending false start penalty.  Now, ESPN &#8211; other than AFC North Blogger James Walker, who actually watches AFC North games so knows what he is talking about &#8211; rewarded the Bengals big win with a jump from&#8230;26 to 24 in the power rankings!!!!  Really, ESPN, really?  You think this team would lose to a certain team from the Potomac River Drainage Basin?  Most fantasy sites will be writing ad infinitum this week about how &#8220;Willie Parker gets a breather this week with the Cincy defense,&#8221; etc., but um, sorry guys, there will be no Steeler running on this defense.  They will complete some passes, probably a few after Roethlissandwich infuriatingly holds the ball for 25 minutes and shakes off 5 300 pound gentlemen, but they will not run.  It&#8217;s going to be a good battle.</p>
<p><strong>What We Haven&#8217;t Learned:</strong></p>
<p>1) Is Carolina really bad?  I&#8217;m not sure yet.  Delhomme blew up vs. a good Eagles team, and then they played the Falcons very tough.  I don&#8217;t think they&#8217;re that terrible.  They may not be going 12-4 again &#8211; let&#8217;s be honest there&#8217;s no CHANCE they&#8217;re going 12-4 again &#8211; but I can certainly see this being an annoying 7-9 or 8-8 team that I wouldn&#8217;t want my contender playing down the stretch.  I really need to watch the Sunday night game to be sure, as I have yet to get a good look at this team.</p>
<p>2) Can New England pull it together?  Numerous publications are currently calling Tom Brady &#8220;jumpy&#8221; in the pocket, and I see it as well.  Similarly, the O-Line seems awfully overrated, and they still can&#8217;t/don&#8217;t run.  The defense is now also vulnerable.  Good test vs. ATL this week will go a long way toward answering this question.</p>
<p>3) What of Houston, Jacksonville, and Miami?  Many are eager to call the dogs on the Jaguars, but are they really done?  They square off vs. Houston, a team I feel may be getting an overrated &#8220;recovery&#8221; award for their win vs. the Titans.  I&#8217;ve never seen blown coverages like that from both sides so frequently, so I&#8217;m not sure how great an indicator that game really was.  And the Dolphins, two tough losses to Atlanta and Indy &#8211; are they still feisty?  And oh heyyyyy Ted Ginn!  Just a week late with that breakout there&#8230;</p>
<p>4) Denver is about to go 3-0 (here come the Fatsos), will they be the worst 3-0 team in NFL history?  Are they actually OK?  I dare not say.</p>
<p>5) Chicago tried to make me believe they are good with a win over Pittsburgh after playing the Packers very tough despite Cutler being about as intelligent as a <a title="blond antelope" href="http://www.viddler.com/explore/loopytube/videos/451/" target="_blank">blond antelope</a>.  I&#8217;m not buying.  If Jeff Reed makes two very makeable field goals &#8211; or indeed makes one &#8211; Pittsburgh wins this game just as I thought they would: unnecessarily close.  Goddammit the Bears are who I thought they were!  Aren&#8217;t they?</p>
<p>6) Now this is serious: could the Pocket Amoeba actually be an outstanding fantasy sleeper quarterback?  Crappy team always throwing?  Check.  Random inclination to throw deep?  Check.  Me-First receiver wants TD&#8217;s? Double check!! (Winslow, Bryant when he comes back).  Strong arm?  Check.  Inability to read defenses, check down, or do anything else required to stay close early in the game?  Cheeeccccckkkk.  Jon Kitna deuce??</p>
<p>7) Cowboys D vs. Pocket Amoeba?  Zero sacks.  Cowboys D vs. Pocket Mini-Maestro Manning?  Zero sacks.  What in the name of bermuda grass is going on here?</p>
<p> <img src='http://thebflow.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> Is Buffalo good?  Are they bad?  Yo no se.</p>
<p>9) I&#8217;m getting tired.  I can&#8217;t believe I&#8217;m still writing.  I REALLY can&#8217;t believe you&#8217;re still reading!!  Hey, thanks!  I&#8217;ll give you a bonus &#8216;ick shot for that: <a title="hellloooooo!" href="http://cityrag.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/21/jessica_biel_2.jpg" target="_blank">helllooooo!</a></p>
<p>10) Just because we&#8217;re here doesn&#8217;t mean we have to say something about real football!  I mean, I&#8217;ll tell you what we have not learned.  We have not learned a damned thing about my fantasy team just because it&#8217;s 0-2, OK?  Look at <a title="this article" href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/fantasy/09/23/wednesday.clicks/index.html" target="_blank">this article</a>.  LOOK AT IT!  OK?  I&#8217;m not &#8220;sweating the 0-2 blues,&#8221; OK?  I&#8217;m the defending champion goddammit!  So what if Kyle Orton is my starting quarterback!  So what if I&#8217;m starting Julius Jones every week!  Matt Berry said they would be good!!!  (starting to shake)  Matt Berry said they would be good.  (starting to shake head and cry) Matt Berry said, matt ber, poop.</p>
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		<title>Picks sans &#8216;icks &#8211; Test Week Review!</title>
		<link>http://thebflow.com/picks-sans-icks-test-week-review-13/</link>
		<comments>http://thebflow.com/picks-sans-icks-test-week-review-13/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:08:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tide182</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tests]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thebflow.com/?p=13</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thank goodness it was just a test week!  If you had followed my throw away the key locks you might have come out OK, 2-1, but the rest of my selections this week were simply abysmal at 5-7.  The combined 7-8 record was worse than either of my two pick&#8217;em league pools, so I must [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank goodness it was just a test week!  If you had followed my throw away the key locks you might have come out OK, 2-1, but the rest of my selections this week were simply abysmal at 5-7.  The combined 7-8 record was worse than either of my two pick&#8217;em league pools, so I must have been saving the wrong picks just for you!  Anyway, let&#8217;s go through the games to see what we learned, and what we didn&#8217;t, in order to make some real $ here in week 2, the first official week of NFL gambling season&#8230;  Must disclose: normally I try to watch at least snippets of all of the games, to get a real sense of how teams are doing; this week, however, I opted to go all Bengals for the 1pm &#8211; and paid the price &#8211; so I did not see as much action as I would have liked.</p>
<p><strong>What we Learned Week 1:</strong></p>
<p>1) Do not underestimate the abilities of the Bills and the Bengals to be&#8230;the <a title="Bills" href="http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d812a279a/NFL-GameDay-Bills-vs-Patriots-highlights">Bills</a> and the <a title="Bengals" href="http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81292440/WK-1-Can-t-Miss-Stokley-s-game-winning-TD">Bengals</a>.</p>
<p>2) Adrian Peterson <a title="is ridiculous" href="http://www.nfl.com/videos/minnesota-vikings/09000d5d8129c75b/Adrian-Peterson-Highlight-WK-01-vs-Browns-2009" target="_blank">is ridiculous</a>.  So is <a title="Drew Brees" href="http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-orleans-saints/09000d5d8129c3e9/Drew-Brees-Highlight-WK-01-vs-Lions-2009" target="_blank">Drew Brees.</a> Brady Quinn and Jake Delhomme?  Not <a title="so" href="http://www.nfl.com/videos/minnesota-vikings/09000d5d8129c60f/Vikings-Defense-Highlight-WK-01-vs-Browns-2009" target="_blank">so</a> <a title="much" href="http://www.nfl.com/videos/philadelphia-eagles/09000d5d8129c295/Eagles-Defense-Highlight-WK-01-vs-Panthers-2009" target="_blank">much</a>.</p>
<p>3) It remains rude to the rest of the NFL that the NFC West is allowed to have an automatic playoff spot.  The Seahawks won despite 3 turnovers &#8211; and won 28-0.  The Rams were downright embarrassing.  The 49ers won with 203 total yards and 30 yards on 22 carries (!) from their starting running back, and somehow Timmy Hightower led all Arizona receivers with 12 catches for 121 yards while Fitz and Boldin combined for only 8 and 90.  The combined national rating for these games was 0.01 &#8211; approximately.  I think I would rather have watched a marathon of that Kardashian reality show than those two crapfests.  The good news?  We get ANOTHER NFC West showdown next week!!!!!!!!!! SEA at SF for divisional &#8220;supremacy.&#8221;  I just puked in my mouth.</p>
<p>4) For all of the hype and love the NFC East gets from the media, whenever the Redskins are involved in a divisional matchup it inevitably becomes every neutral fan in an NFC East media market&#8217;s worst nightmare.  Along the lines of the dreaded Jets-Bills or Jets-Chiefs showdowns that have desecrated the NY market&#8217;s CBS screens in the 4pm prime window over the past few seasons, this past week&#8217;s Redskins-Giants affair was, as predicted before the week, an ugly, ugly, disgusting game.  4 turnovers, a favorite jumping out to an uninspiring 17-0 lead and then doing literally nothing the rest of the game, an underdog with such a complete lack of firepower that even at 3-0 after the first quarter you were just about 100% sure the game was out of their reach since the Giants defense always seemed more likely to score when the Redskins had the ball than the Redskins offense, Eli Manning &#8211; wizard of the escape the pass-rush and then find open receiver 5 yards down field (1 notable exception&#8230;), but sadly, also of the overthrow of wide open wide receiver when in the pocket &#8211; being Eli Manning, multiple Manning faces, I mean just yuck.  Please remove me from any Redskins watching activities for the rest of the season and I will let them go 8-8 in peace.  While we&#8217;re at it, I&#8217;m not sure I need any Giants games either.  At least Strahan is gone.  Oh wait, Fox put him on tv!!!</p>
<p>5) To reiterate: never, EVER, bet on Jake Delhomme vs. a mediocre or better defense.</p>
<p>6) Token Bengals comment: this Bengals defense is really good.  Just wait until after they play GB next week&#8230;  Carson Palmer is at a career crossroads.  Time to step up, sir, it&#8217;s been a long time since 2005 now.</p>
<p>7) I guess Rex Ryan can coach defense.  Either that or Eric Mangini is the best accumulator of defensive talent in the league, and just didn&#8217;t use it last year.  Actually&#8230;</p>
<p> <img src='http://thebflow.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> Brady Quinn is the Browns starting Quarterback!!!!! OMFG I don&#8217;t believe it!  Mangenius!</p>
<p>9) Green Bay is pretty good &#8211; they didn&#8217;t play that well and still won the game, and you can see how explosive they can be.  The new 3-4 looks good, too.  Cutler is overrated &#8211; at least for now.  I&#8217;m pretty confident that Mark Schlereth, Merril Hoge, and the rest of the ESPN studio clowns will be hammering this into our heads so much for the next week that come Sunday Cutler will be back to being underrated.  In fact, this may be an underrated time to call Cutler underrated, since the influence of ESPN may be overrated.  My head hurts.</p>
<p>10) Football is f&#8217;ing back, baby.</p>
<p><strong>Things we Still Don&#8217;t Know:</strong></p>
<p>1) It is unclear whether Jacksonville is actually pretty good or if Indianapolis is actually fairly mediocre.  Sadly, the Jags host Arizona and the Colts travel to Miami next week so we may not learn the answer to this conundrum next week either.</p>
<p>2) What the h is up with Dallas&#8217; defense?  Has Byron Leftwich ever quarterbacked a game in which he was not sacked at any level?  The Cowboys LED THE NFL with 59 sacks last season, that&#8217;s 8 more than the next best team, and they couldn&#8217;t get Leftwich once?  The guy has the mobility of an amoeba, and the release time roughly equivalent to a trip to the moon.  And he dropped back 41 times!  Where was Ware?  Or anybody?  Fortunately Leftwich fumbled once on his own without being sacked, so he is still somewhat human, but, seriously, how could they not sack him?  If they bring that sort of pass rush to the Wizard of Pocket Wiliness, the Master of Dumpoff to Avoid Disaster, well&#8230;that will result in a 23-17 defeat.</p>
<p>3) Is San Diego&#8217;s season in trouble?  I know, I know they won &#8211; but LDT &#8220;rolled an ankle,&#8221; quickly resuming his position as most tidily dressed and least apparently injured &#8220;injured&#8221; player on the sidelines, and did just about nothing before then.  The offensive line was under siege all game, and now lost 2 starters to potentially severe knee injuries.  Their receivers apparently cannot beat 1-on-1 coverage, much to the chagrin of Steve Young, who, much to the chagrin of last night&#8217;s viewers, reiterated this point to us ad infinitum from approximately the 4:00 minute mark of the first quarter.  Did you know the Raiders played a vanilla defensive scheme last night, one high safety?  Did you?  If you watched the game you sure did!  Thanks, Steve!  Now we&#8217;ll see you again next season for the crappier and non-East Coast reaching MNF double header game.  Also, Shawn Merriman was still limping around and the Chargers front seven did their very best to make Oakland&#8217;s O-Line look like the Cowboys&#8217; mid-90s group.  In fact, if Jamarcus Russell &#8211; I&#8217;m sorry I can&#8217;t even say the name without laughing &#8211; if Jamarcus &#8220;Fatso&#8221; Russell had the accuracy of even a starting grade school quarterback the Raiders would have won that game easily.</p>
<p>4) Which is true, the Jets D is now nasty, or the Texans offense has regressed to ineptitude?  Jets get NWE next week and Texans get TEN, so we should find out pretty quickly.</p>
<p>5) Is Urlacher as overrated as some of the &#8220;insider&#8221; analysts think he is?  We will find out as the Bears try to cope with his defeat, and Bears fans continue to try to cope with the fact that Lovie Smith looks like a skinnier Romeo Crennel out there.</p>
<p>6) The Baltimore D, is it cracking???  Alas, despite giving up 24 points to the Brodie Croyle led Native American Tribal Leaders, this was a game &#8220;that was not as close as how close it might have looked before the score made it not close again.&#8221;  If you are a rational being and have trouble following that statement here is the explanation: common wisdom says the game was actually really close because it was 24-24 with under 5 minutes to go, and if it weren&#8217;t for a late garbage TD by the Ravens they wouldn&#8217;t have covered and it would have been a 31-24 shootout!  Sadly, the NATL&#8217;s were outgained on the day by 501-188, ran slightly more than HALF the plays that Baltimore ran, held the ball for 1/3 of the game, scored on a blocked punt in the end zone, lost the 1st down battle 32-11, and generally had no business being in the game in the 4th quarter.  Now, does this mean that Baltimore can&#8217;t close?  Or does it mean KC was fluky and lucky and Baltimore looked really good?  The teams return to their respective weight classes next week when the Ravens visit San Diego and KC hosts Oakland, so we shall soon find out, but I&#8217;m betting the latter.</p>
<p>7) Is NWE&#8217;s offense really close, or just not the same?  They moved the ball, but they struggled to score.  They threw the ball, but struggled to run.  In the past, however, even when they struggled to put up big yardage totals on the ground they were effective when they did run the ball &#8211; as per Football Outsiders &#8211; and this week they were anything but that.  Brady is fine, Moss is fine, and Welker did what Welker does, so I think they will probably be fine, but they&#8217;re going to have to at least run a little more EFFICIENTLY if they&#8217;re going to be elite, because they have to keep that suspect defense off the field.  Good test for them next week with the Jets.</p>
<p> <img src='http://thebflow.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> Does Ron Pitts have to pay James Brown copyright infringement fees for acting the same, and generally doing the same things JB did before he existed every week at the same time that JB is doing them?  This type of thing concerns me.  Would Pitts have a job if JB weren&#8217;t so good?  Is he an actual clone with a different face glued on?  Also, which studio has the better pregame guffaw sessions?  Does Boomer Esiason really hate Marino and Sharpe?  Do they hate him?  Where does JB fall?  Does he miss Howie and Jimmy?  Does he even miss Terry when compared to Sharpe?</p>
<p>9) Gus Johnson still has it.</p>
<p>10) Which coach will be first to go?</p>
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