So now let’s review a week 13, a week 13 in the league where they play…

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FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 19-14)

1) CINCINNATI -13 over Detroit

The regular reader(s) of these picks know that we here at the B Flow are Bengals supporters.  He/She/They also know that we almost always pick the Bengals game last in an attempt to walk through the other games first to get all of the ridiculousness out of our system.  Not this week.  It’s not so much that we’ve been sold on the “Striped Ones” – as per Peter King’s weekly set of bogus selections – recent performances as we are completely sold on the Lions’ recent performances…being terrible.  The team is currently ranked dead last in FO team efficiency rankings, pulling in at 30th on offense and 32nd on D.  They’ve got a head coach who appears to fawn over Kid Rock, and an injured quarterback and star wideout.  The Ocho has been begging for a few more balls, and I think he gets them this week.  “Striped Ones,” big, though if they do not come through count on an enraged dissertation of the idiocy of one Bob “OK, let’s hit ‘em with another run up the middle” Bratkowski’s playcalling…

2) New England -4.5 over MIAMI

Around this time you may be wondering: this gentleman just picked the Cincinnati Bengals as his number 1 lock of the week coming off of a moral defeat at home to Cleveland and a real one on the road in Oakland.  You think perhaps you might be better off going with Ray Romano’s selections, which NFL.com has graciously posted over on their website.  Everybody does love New England here, though, so feel safe for now.  Enraged/Embarrassed Belichick/Brady + Injured Dolphins QB/RB/DT/OL + the Bills (!!!) providing a blueprint for marine beatdowns = Patriots Day all over again.  I don’t even think we needed to make a lock on this one, the door is just welded shut.

3) San Diego -13.5 over CLEVELAND

We have been accused before of being a little to heavy on the favorites, but this was simply an opportunity we could not pass up.  The only possible reason the Chargers were not given a full two touchdowns over Cleveland is this man (note he is even losing to the Chiefs in this picture):

Still, as Mike Tanier amusingly points out in his excellent weekly picks rundown, the Bolts have scored 106 points over the past 3 weeks whereas the Brownies have scored only 102 over the last 10.  Mangenius can concoct schemes to keep him in games against the Bobby Bratkowski’s of the world, but the Norvenator excels at steamrolling inferior opponents where game management doesn’t come into play.  And now the obligatory MANGENIUS images!!!!  We’ll put it up to a vote, do we go with a new one??

Striking similarity to the man, isnt it?  Or do we stick with the original, the fan favorite, the one, the only: MANGINEON!

Browns fans everywhere, in the words of the immortal Joe Benigno, say it with me, “aww da pain.”

Regular Picks (Season Record: 68-55-1)

1) Minnesota -3 over ARIZONA

We’ve just realized several things.  First, we haven’t given you enough of Tiger’s cuckquean, so here you are and here you are:

Secondly, we’ve got to get a move on with these picks!!  This one is pretty simple as no Kurt Warner equals no win for the Redbirds as the QBWSNBN’s march to redemption continues. WHOAWHOAWHOA, late addition.  Did you know ANOTHER Viking was just pulled over for going over 100MPH on a highway?  What in the hell is going on over there?  Are they racing to be the first to get down to Orlando to “comfort” dear Elin post golf-club wielding assault?  I’m putting sources on this and will have some fun updates in this weeks Musings.

2) CAROLINA -5 over Tampa Bay

FINALLY.  FINALLY.  Finally we no longer have to witness Jake Delhomme’s miserable mug every Sunday, as it appears Matty Moore will get the start in Carolina this week.  John Fox may finally realize that if he simply runs the ball 3 out of every 4 plays he will be the head coach of a winning football team.  I understand DeAngelo Williams may not play, but as long as Jonathan Stewart does it won’t matter.  I understand Chad Millman has told us that the “sharps” are all over Cleveland and Tampa these days, and the Bucs may kill me yet with a late cover, but I actually think the Delhomme for Moore swap has the Panthers as an underbought value this week.  As a final piece of evidence, this was one of only two games this week where each of the Inside the NFL guys didn’t take the same team to win the game.  The first?  Phil “My Blonde Hair Bleach Prevents My Brain From Getting Oxygen” Simms took the Bills while Collinsworth and Sapp (I know, I know) took New York.  Minus-1 for Phil.  The second?  Phil’s going Gasparilla!!!  You know where we’re going.

3) Denver -5 over KANSAS CITY

I don’t like the Tribal Leaders, I don’t like coaches who spend excessive time in 8by8 offices with Charlie Weis (see Mike Tanier link earlier), and although I don’t love Josh McD, I will always take this, ridiculous as it is, over this, steer clear of that man…

4) PITTSBURGH -14.5 over Oakland

Apparently Mike Tomlin has had quite enough of the Steelers’ recent 3-game losing streak, as he has announced his team will be “unleashing hell” here in December.  I’m not sure what that means exactly, but the last time I heard anyone utter the phrase “unleash hell” something like this went down.  I believe Stewie Griffin may also have “unleashed hell” once on a playground against rival baby Bertram.  Here is Lamar Woodley’s take wherein we learn, sadly, there will be no flaming arrows, only blitzing linebackers.  To be fair, it’s awfully hard to envision Omar Epps,

reprising Russell Crowe’s Maximus now, isn’t it?  No matter, easy wins over Oakland come with make-it-at-home (in Pittsburgh) instructions – the team has won 10 road games in the last 10 years – so no flaming arrows required.

5) Houston PK over JACKSONVILLE

We’ve beaten the whole Jaguars non-home field home field theme to death around here, so let’s take a peek at this from the Texans perspective.  4 weeks ago they were 5-3, coming off 3 straight wins including one over red-hot Cincinnati on the road, and the talk of the pregame shows.  Now they are mired in a 3 game losing streak plus an apparently unhelpful bye, under .500, and staring at swirling rumors regarding the continued livelihood of their head coach.  What, really, has changed in those 4 weeks?  The Texans lost two games to the 11-0 Colts by a combined 11 points, and lost a prime time thriller at home to smoking Tennessee.  While it is true a real title contender probably would have won at least one or two of those games, I’m not sure how many other fringe wild card contenders were going to do a whole lot better.  With Jacksonville here, then Seattle, St. Louis and Miami it is entirely conceivable that 4 weeks forward from now we will once again be back where we were 4 weeks ago, with the Texans in the thick of the wild card race and the talk of the town.  It will take a win over New England – hopefully for them a resting New England – in the final week to get in, but we do believe that march back towards relevance begins  here with a comfortable win over the paper Jaguars.

6) Tennessee +6 over INDIANAPOLIS

It has become a bit of a chic pick to take the Colts to fall here, ending their run at 16-0.  That said, when have the Colts really ever been interested in 16-0?  The Colts are doing what the Colts do, finding themselves just one win away from an NFL-record 7th consecutive season with 12 or more wins.  They already hold the record with their current 6-year streak.  This year, however, they’ve done it not so much by being dominating, but by being good enough and quite lucky on more than one occasion.  We at the Flow respect Peyton Manning, but do not like him, never have from his days at Tennessee.  As the Sports Guy pointed out in his latest Power Poll, the Colts seem to be getting all of the breaks these days and it is infuriating.  I’m not sure if Vince Young’s re-found magic will pull out a win here or if Peyton will get a few more calls combined with his own astounding excellence and find a way to get to 12-0, but I do like the idea of it being close.  Another chance for the Flow’s “Colts Don’t Blow Out Intra-Division Opponents As Often” postulate to be proven correct.

7) Philadelphia -5 over ATLANTA

The Falcons without Matt Ryan or Michael Turner are not interesting, and despite the Eagles’ wariness, it’s hard to even see this game being particularly competitive.  Of more interest to me and possibly you is that the B Flow once mistakenly woke up one Mrs. McNabb at about 4am at the Borgata in Atlantic City when we mistook her room number for ours.  Here’s what we were up against:

Yikes!  Needless to say security and alcohol were NOT involved.

WASHINGTON +9.5 over New Orleans

I will not…yes I will, this is the proverbial letdown game, blah blah blah.  Of perhaps greater importance is the fact that somehow, some way, despite Chris Cooley himself being baffled as to how plays are called over there in the Potomac Drainage Basin, the Indigenous Peoples have become a Vegas darling, using their strong defense and game draining confusion on offense to cover spreads around the country.  You see?  The Shermanator lives!!!

9) CHICAGO -9.5 over St. Louis

Obligatory Jay Cutler huge stat game to make everyone think he’s good again.  Now, we were about to link to a standard Jay Cutler the brat picture, like this:

but we’ve just discovered that Jay shares his moniker with a bodybuilder, the one, the only JAY CUTLER!  While a Google search for “Jay Cutler” brings up way more info on the Broncos signal caller, if you pop on over to Google Image you will see that the weightlifter dominates the scene.  Maybe now I am starting to understand some of the emotional problems Jay is going through.  I would hate to Google Image myself only to see some dude up there all oiled up and jacked.  Gross.  Jay Cutler, you sir, are gross.  Both of you.

10) San Francisco -1 over SEATTLE

The Seahawks were pronounced dead to me a long time ago this season.  I will note again how much we Bengals fans are LOVING how miserable TJ Houshmandouche is over on the left coast.

That’s right, Teej, if you squint hard enough you can see the AFC North standings…  Get a haircut.

11) NY GIANTS +2.5 over Dallas

It’s General Coughlin’s last stand as the 6-5 G-Men look to salvage their playoff lives vs. the suddenly hot despite losing a hot girl as their spokeswoman Cowboys.  I’m not sure why I like the Giants here other than that they are a live, home dog, and they are desperate.  Desperate teams generally play well if they have any quality (see Baltimore last week), and I think the Giants still have some fight left despite the Antonio Pierce absence and Eli injury.  Do not bet this game with us, only against us.  MANNING FACE!

12) Baltimore +3 over GREEN BAY

THERE ARE SO MANY GAMES IN THESE NON BYE WEEKS!  My fingers hurt, and due to a new NFL rule I will no longer be able to play this week or next.  Fortunately, I’ve lied to my editors (there aren’t any so it’s easy), and will push through and continue next week.  As for this week, well, this is actually a really good football game between two really good football teams.  Football.  And you know how we deal with those, limited comments as you’ve probably read all about it yourselves in the standard previews.  Fun factoid for you though, before we go, did you know that for all of the fanfare we’re sure to get during Ray Lewis’ intro etc., it is actually the Packers defense that ranks number 1 in the NFL per the Football Outsiders statistics.  That combined with no Terrell Suggs, home field, and a new found running game behind Ryan Grant lead me to take…the Ravens.  Because I can.  And because they’re desperate.  And most importantly, because of reverse jinx factors…  ENJOY THE GAMES!

Thanks, girls.  And now to a week 10 in the league where they play…

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FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 17-10)

1) New England +3 over INDIANAPOLIS

Why not just go ahead and start with the sexiest game of the week, the seemingly annual – or even semi-annual – showdown between two of the league’s most recognizable faces (Tom Brady and Peyton Manning) and successful franchises.  In general, we spend less time previewing the very best games, as we assume you’ve probably read a preview or two in your internet travels this week.  Suffice to say, there has been adequate media coverage already.  Just so you don’t think I’m throwing darts completely at random, however, I will quickly highlight the reasons everyone else has already stated for the Pats cover.  A) The Colts injuries in the secondary are going to be a major problem against a rapidly returning to form Brady/Moss/Welker/et. al. Pats offense, B) The Colts have hardly looked like world beaters on offense in squeaking by the Texans and 49ers in the last two weeks, and other than putting up 31 on a shell-shocked Arizona team on Sunday Night a few weeks ago have generally not looked exceptional on offense all season, and C) I firmly believe that, despite the return of Donald Brown this week, the Colts lack the third playmaker on offense necessary to keep up with a Pats team that is going to score.  Pats win here outright, though I’m sure Peyton will do something incredible to make it exciting until the end.

2) New Orleans -13.5 over ST. LOUIS

If you are a conspiracy theorist, feel free not to come along for the ride with me on this game.  I honestly have no idea how the Saints are less than two touchdown favorites in a dome – any dome – against a team that has been outscored on AVERAGE this season 27.6 to 9.6.  That’s right, the Rammies average line this season would be plus-18, that’s why I feel comfortable taking one of the best teams in football at the relative bargain of 13.5.  I understand Steven Jackson may have a nice day, and I understand that the Saints have looked vulnerable versus power running attacks in the last two weeks, but the Rams simply aren’t the power running attack that Miami or Carolina is, and more importantly, they lack any other redeeming quality to keep them even remotely close should, say, New Orleans load 9 in the box.

3) MIAMI -10 over Tampa Bay

I thought about a few options here as you will soon see below, but in the end I had to take the desperate  home team against a rookie quarterback.  I understand somehow Josh Freeman and co. came back to beat Green Bay last week – I will never understand that game, ever – but I’m just not buying.  Tampa being 30th in the NFL in Rushing YPG Allowed, and an amazing dead last in FO’s rankings, does not portend well for the marine smugglers.  No creamsicles this week seals the deal, Miami in a painful rout.

Regular Games (Season Record: 54-46-1)

1) Baltimore -11 over CLEVELAND

We really don’t even need to talk about this game (desperate good team with mediocre record vs. lame duck divisional opponent in prime time), and I’m running a little late for an obligation as well, so let’s just leave you with a fun image on this one:

2) MINNESOTA -16.5 over Detroit

Normally this would be the time for us to post the Flow’s WTE divisional standings, but frankly we’re so upset with the success of the WTED teams against the spread recently that we are boycotting the posting of standings until things return to normal, hopefully after this week.  In other news, though it won’t be an issue here, do recall our warning our a few weeks ago regarding the potential frailty of this Viking team.  If they could just push the pause button right now and play the playoffs and Super Bowl as currently made up, I’d take them for a true SB favorite.  In the real world, however, there are 8 games of regular season to go before they get to that point and the injuries are already starting to mount up…

3) NY JETS -7 over Jacksonville

I will never forgive the Jacksonville Jaguars for giving up 15 points in the last 2:32 to the Kansas City freaking Chiefs to ruin their covering of the 6.5 spread and as a result 3 of my various parlays last weekend.  They even gave up a 54-yard bomb to Chris F’ing Chambers up 18 with 2:32 to go!!!!  To be clear, this is not a buy on the Revolting Blob and the Jets, this is a hard sell on the Pussycats.

4) Denver -3.5 at WASHINGTON

I understand that the Indigenous People’s defense is excellent and that they are at home, what I don’t understand is all of the hullabaloo about them being underrated.  Look, people, this team has 2 wins and they are over St. Louis and Tampa Bay.  They’ve already lost to Detroit and Kansas City – at home! – this season, and while Captain Neckbeard and Co. are certainly no world beaters – you know our views on the subject – the Broncos defense is pretty good, and Brandon Marshall and the rest of the offense are plenty good enough to win this game 17-10.  Let’s get a gratuitous shot of Sherman in here for old times sake and just in case some of you were still thinking of going Skins:

Oh, and here he is coaching from our nation’s capital:

Whoa!  Is that a human?

5) TENNESSEE -7 over Buffalo

Another simple one as we fly through here: Chris Johnson + Vince Young + Bills Rush “D” = Uh-Oh, Buffalo.  If you want more to think about on this game try this very thought-provoking comparison:

6) Atlanta -1.5 over CAROLINA

Atlanta’s head coach gets in fights to protect  his team.  That’s all I have on that, I’m not really sure if I support that or not.  As far as the rest of the game, I do like what Carolina is starting to do in terms of getting their running game going.  Sadly, as long as Forrest Delhomme is still their starting quarterback neither I nor Steve “No Longer the Real Steve Smith” Smith can pick the Panthers to win a game, and 1.5 isn’t exactly enough to “take the points” here.

7) OAKLAND -2 over Kansas City

The return of Fatso! It has been so lonely over here in the B Flow offices without him involved, and frankly we’re so ecstatic to see him back we’ve gone ahead and taken the Raiders here in the worst game of 2009.  Right now, Fatso has a QB rating lower than his completion percentage, which may not be particularly noteworthy except for the fact that his completion percentage checks in at a cool 48.4%.  With a current rating of 48.3, it will certainly be interesting to follow this numbers competition throughout the rest of the season.  Other fun games to play are Sacks+Interceptions vs. Completions, Sacks+Interceptions Season vs. QB Rating Season, Incompletions Single Game vs. Yards Passing, and finally, YPA Passing vs. YPC Rushing, including sacks.

ARIZONA -8 over Seattle

If you read the Flow’s musings from earlier this week and also linked earlier in this article you know that the Blue/Neon Men Group is dead to us.  You would also know, from those musings, that Peter King thinks the Cardinals are “still dangerous.”

That’s right, NFL-mannn, THEY ARE DANGEROUS!  (BITE!)

9) SAN DIEGO -1 over Philadelphia

Moving right along now we find a pretty good one in the 4:15 time slot between the Bolts and Birds.  According to Football Outsiders statistics the Eagles are the 2nd most schizophrenic team in the league, being only slightly more predictable than the Tennessee Flaming Chris Johnsons.  I suppose that is what happens when you lose to Fatso but also beat other NFL teams.  I’m not particularly comfortable with this pick either way, but like last week, I trust the arm of Philip Rivers to come down the field late if necessary more than I do that of the “Spikemaster Flex,” Donovan McNabb.  Plus, we are one Chargers win away here from a) Peter King announcing the Chargers are dangerous, b) Chargers Super Bowl talk resurrecting followed by a missing persons notice being sent out for LaDanian Tomlinson so that CBS can fill quotas of sadfaced sideline shots of “injured” players, and c) the Michael Vick bandwagon potentially forming.  Mike Tanier also points out that this is the widely anticipated showdown between two of the game’s elite clock management gurus, Mr. Norv “Uhhh” Turner and the Honorable Andy “Walrus” Reid.  Bill Simmons goes so far as to suggest an amusing split screen for the two of them as the clock winds down in each half.  This should be fun.

10) GREEN BAY +3 over Dallas

OK, Packers, I’m giving you one more shot.  You’re at home.  You’re a live dog.  You’re facing a Cowboys team that I’m not convinced is actually as good as they seem to be, and probably are due for a loss somewhere along the line.  If you go back to that Mike Tanier link above you will note the Packers, despite having an excellent offense and defense, lead the league in sacks allowed and penalties, are terrible on all coverage units, and have been poor on 4th down.  In general, that’s not how you win football games, though if they can curtail those issues for just this week (and maybe longer!) they’re certainly good enough elsewhere to win here.  I’m not completely selling Green Bay Packers: playoff team yet.

11) Cincinnati +7 over PITTSBURGH

And we’ve come to this.  We were all set to preview this game for everyone, but then saw that it had already been played out on Madden over on ESPN and the Steelers won 34-24.  Of course, this was deeply saddening to the B Flow, but as we gave the box score a melancholy click something caught our eye: Jerome Simpson, 1 catch, 5 yards, 1 TD.  Jerome Simpson?  This Jerome Simpson?  This cannot be!  Because all Bengals fans know that that Jerome Simpson isn’t even dressing for this week’s game, rather he and his 2nd round draft status spot have been taken by a gentleman by the name of Maurice Purify of Practice Squad.  Further, Mr. Roethlisberger is stated to have 390 (!!) yards passing.  Really?  Look, in all seriousness, we understand the Bengals are a little banged up right now, but 7 points?  A full touchdown for a team that is 6-2 and has looked pretty damned good doing it the last two weeks?  And for all those people who are so concerned that Chris Henry’s injury is really going to hurt the Bengals offense, please do consider the fact that Henry had more than 2 catches or 36 yards receiving one time this season, and that was the same game, 3 for 92 vs. Baltimore the first time.  He had all of 2 touchdowns.  I recognize that he adds a deep threat to the Bengals offense, but I just don’t see it being that big of a deal.  Carson loves to throw to Chad deep, and even without Jerome – who’s literal only skill at this point is running straight down the field and making acrobatic deep catches – Purify, Caldwell, Coles, and Ocho are plenty of talent out wide.  As warned earlier in the week, the Bengals are a physical group on both sides of the ball and will not be intimidated by Pittsburgh’s own physicality.  The two teams rank 1 and 2 in the standard NFL rushing yards allowed per game statistic, and with the Steelers’ addition of Rashard Mendenhall also feature two of the better bruising backs in the league.  While we’re willing to perhaps concede that Ben Roethlisberger has a few more weapons to throw to, Cincinnati has the superior corners and will force “Ben” to win the game with Mike Wallace and Heath Miller rather than Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward behind a shaky O-Line.  He almost did it the first game, but fell short after dominating 3 quarters to a Carson-led Cardiac Cat special.  When we started looking at this game this week we felt the Steelers were the better team, and indeed perhaps the very best in the league.  There’s no doubt they have played well on this 5-game winning streak, but the most physical team they played on that streak – the only one comparable from a physicality only standpoint to the Bengals – was the Minnesota Vikings, and the Vikings probably should have won that game.  Carson Palmer will not gift games the way Brett Favre did that one, so I’m not convinced we’re looking at a runaway.  These teams know each other well, and despite being 12-2 against the rest of the division at home with Mike Tomlin at the helm, Pittsburgh is only 3-3 against Marvin Lewis in that building.  Hard to believe as it is, it was only 4 years ago when Cincinnati stormed into Pittsburgh and wrested the 2005 AFC North title from the Steelers.  Can they do it again?  Maybe, but we’re pretty sure whichever way it goes it will be by less than 7…

Excellent work girls.  And now let’s get to it for a week 9 in the NFL.  A week 9 in the league…  where they play…

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FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 15-9)

1) Green Bay -9.5 over TAMPA BAY

We’ll start this week out with a B Flow favorite, the Green Bay Packers, taking on the very worst of the Flow’s WTE Division.  To follow up on that point, the WTE division successfully put together its very first winning week of 2009, going 3-2 with 2 wins outright, although to be fair one of those came in St. Louis’ head-to-head showdown win over Detroit (more on this game later).  This week 3 teams return from byes (Washington, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay) and I fully expect normalcy to return…starting right here.  According to FO stats, the Pack are the 6th best team in football, and while I’m not quite ready to anoint them that status (a la FO rating the Eagles as the best team in the NFL throughout last season, further evidence that their system over-rewards good west-coast offenses with run-stopping defenses) I am certainly comfortable stating that they are better than their 4-3 record and, perhaps more importantly, that Tampa is the worst team in the NFL.  They’re starting a rookie at QB in Josh Freeman who posted a worse than 60% completion percentage and 44/34 TD/INT ratio at Kansas State for the past three years, not exactly inspiring confidence.  Further denting the Freeman wagon is the fact that he was behind Fatso’s cousin on the depth chart until this week.  Going against GB’s ball-hawking secondary will not go well.  Finally, while Tampa’s Merrey Krewe ranks a respectable 15th in passing YPG allowed by counting method, they come in as FO’s worst overall defense, 30th against the run and 31st against the pass.  Teams have been up by so many points so frequently, that they simply don’t have to pass in the second half, and when that happens the erstwhile juggernaut that was the Tampa Bay D is no longer capable of stopping people from running it down their throats either.  I’m thinking something like 30-13 here, minimum, with the Pack storming out to a 2-3 TD lead by halftime.

2) Pittsburgh -3 over DENVER

Another road dog, but this time a road dog traveling to a high altitude stadium to play a 6-1 football team that has already beaten Dallas and New England at home this season.  Speaking of the high altitude, bravo to the Steeler organization coming to its senses and not letting safety Ryan Clark play this game in Denver due to a genetic sickle cell trait that almost killed him the last time he played there.  I mean, seriously, that is scary stuff.  Back to the game for a second, Mike Tanier sagely points out that the apparent Ravens beatdown of the Broncos last weekend was not so bad as it may have seemed in the box score noting that this was still a close game well into the 4th quarter.  Indeed, standard B-Flow inspection shows that even the box score doesn’t suggest a Ravens blowout, as first downs were 17-16 Denver and neither team gained 300 total yards of offense.  Perhaps Mr. Tanier is really referring to the “line score,” which simply shows Baltimore 30, Denver 7, but either way, I think this is missing the point.  The point as I see it is that Denver has played 3 teams I would classify as very physical at the point of attack: the Patriots, the Bengals (yes, the Bengals – they’re 5th in rush YPG allowed and also boast the NFL’s 4th leading rusher), and the Ravens.  (Sorry Dallas and San Diego fans, it’s not that your teams are bad, it’s just they arent smashmouth good).  In those three games the Broncos won in OT, won on a fluky play and should have lost, and then lost badly on the scoreboard.  Moral of the story here is that unless Denver plays a perfect game on defense and special teams, they can’t do enough offensively to beat a very good, physical football team.  Pittsburgh is exactly that, and I think they will cause major problems for Denver.  Pete Prisco – shockingly with something relevant – points out the fact that Baltimore may have created a blueprint for success against Denver, and despite Peter King ridiculously only pointing out how good Denver’s defense was in a 30-7 defeat in his weekly picks, I believe that Roethlisberger should be good for 3-4 excruciating “wiggle-outs followed by back-breaking 25 yd passes” to Hines “I’m Officially the Dirtiest Player in the NFL as Voted by My Peers” Ward in this game.  That will be more than enough, I like the Steelers here – I like ‘em a lot.

3) ATLANTA -10 over Washington

Don’t need to say a whole lot here, I still believe the Falcons to be a darned good football team, having just lost 2 in a row for the first time under Head Coach Mike Smith.  The Redskins offense, led by whoever Dan Snyder’s favorite consultant of the week may be, is the perfect antidote to a long weekend with the Saints offense the week before.  Especially helpful to the Falcons is that their biggest defensive weakness, namely size in the secondary and ability to prevent big plays, cannot be exploited by Jason Campbell and the Indigenous Person’s dink-and-dunk attack and minuscule wideouts.  Further crimping the Potomac Drainage Basin’s cause in this game is the injury to Chris Cooley and the 23rd best FO-rated secondary in the NFL, a dangerous thing when going up against Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White.  Before moving on I do want to note that I am starting to get whiffs of overratedness coming from Matt “Matty Ice” Ryan, but will withhold judgment until at least after this week.  Still, I’m laying the 10 here with genuine concern that Washington will even get that many.

Regular Games (Season Record: 49-41-1)

1) JACKSONVILLE -6.5 over Kansas City

Terrible week for the regular games last week, as we went a dreadful 3-7.  As such, what better place to get back on a roll than a) the home of an NFL franchise that is being called out for being an unsustainable host city, and b) against the Tribal Leaders!  There really isn’t much that needs to be said about the actual football game here other than that it will certainly be miserable to watch, for one, and for two the previews this week will get to cover this hilarious bit of reining in by Jack Del Rio who essentially made it impossible for David Garrard to continue to audible from running plays to passing plays.  On the one hand considering their tailback (MJD) ran for freaking 177 yards on 8 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) carries in a losing effort last week it would probably be a good idea to get him more involved, but on the other hand if the other team now knows when it puts 9 in the box the QB can’t audible to a pass it might not be the best thing.  Fortunately for MJD owners and gamblers everywhere, this week’s opponent won’t be able to do anything about it anyway, so we can worry about this next week.

2) Arizona +3 over CHICAGO

As I’m sure you’ve read elsewhere this week this game is absolutely impossible to predict.  We literally have no idea which Cardinals team will show up (witness big win over NYG only to get romped by Carolina at home), nor do we know what type of quirky defensive/special teams TD’s the Bears will come up with at home.  Let’s just take the points here, get in a quick shot of some southern belles, and move on.  Actually, take a second to see what the Tide is up against this weekend…

3) SEATTLE -10 over Detroit

I actually went back and forth on this game because I thought Detroit was at least a high effort team and the Seahawks are just a bumbling mess of injuries, ineptitude and idiocy, but as it turns out the Lions are capable of losing to the Rams (the score of that game was actually 3-2 with under a minute to go in the first half.  3 to freaking 2.) and Superfreak is still banged up.  Let’s give the Seahawks one more chance to be relevant this year – side note, how terrible does TJ Housh look these days???  I TOLD YOU SO YOU F*CKERS – and update the WTE Division standings showcasing Oakland (!) starting to pull away:

1) Oakland (4-4)

2) St. Louis (3-5)

3) Cleveland (3-5)

4) Washington (2-5)

5) Tennessee (2-5)

6) Detroit (2-5)

7) Kansas City (2-5)

Tampa Bay (1-6)

Some points: Yes, that is Oakland sitting at .500 vs. the spread this season, and yes that is St. Louis, one week removed from a 19-game losing streak sitting pretty at number 2.  Have to love a division where those two thing are possible.

4) NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over Miami

This should actually be an outstanding football game, and I was very torn on which way to go here.  New England is a bit of an enigma to me, going 1-2 against the three toughest defenses they’ve played in the Jets, Broncos, and Ravens and not looking particularly threatening in any of those games.  That said, Miami is only tough on offense, not defense, where their secondary is a lowly 21st in the NFL and features the most torched corner in the NFL in Jason Allen.  Miami will try to pound the rock over and over in chilly New England, but I just don’t see them being able to stop the Patriots through the air, and sooner or later Chad Henne will make a mistake against an excellent Pats D.  Also, consider this tidbit on the Pats offense courtesy of FO through ESPN Insider: New England now has the top offense in the NFL according to our DVOA ratings; what’s remarkable about the Patriots’ offense this year is its ability to do everything well. The Pats rank second in passing and seventh in rushing. They rank sixth in game-to-game consistency. The Pats rank in the top ten for DVOA in all four quarters and on first, second and third down. When we split the field into 20-yard zones, the Pats are 11th in the red zone and top ten in the other four zones. They have the sixth-highest DVOA from shotgun and the third-highest DVOA with the quarterback under center. Yikes!

5) NEW ORLEANS -13 over Carolina

Similar to last week’s Falcons matchup, I fear for the Saints that the Panthers strengths suit too well the Saints’ weaknesses.  However, unlike last week, the Panthers are so hideously horrible throwing the football that they cannot ever fall behind in this game and catch back up.  They have to run run run and run some more to be successful.  Frankly, if I thought John Fox were ballsy enough to literally run DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart every single play this would be pretty interesting in terms of covering.  He isn’t, and as such we will see more three and outs, more turnovers, and a more comfortable Saints cover.

6) Tennessee +4 over SAN FRANCISCO

Brutal game to pick here, as I don’t really believe in San Francisco, but I know that Tennessee is terrible.  The problem, here, is that Tennessee’s true horror occurs in the secondary, not against the run, and while that could really open things up for Alex Smith and Vernon Davis…well, you heard what I just said.  To be fair I kind of like the 49ers in a 2-3 point game here, so I’ll take the 4, and try to get lucky.  Speaking of getting lucky, here are some phenomenal snappers of Tide supporters.  I especially approve of that old I heart Julio shirt that I had sent around last year.  I’m going to go ahead and purchase that right now, actually, in preparation for my future wife’s Saturday wardrobe.

7) San Diego +4.5 over NY GIANTS

The Giants are in a rut.  They look “confused” on defense and post-metatarsal injury Eli is looking a lot more like pre-Super Bowl Eli than Super Bowl and since Eli.  That’s not a good thing, especially considering that other than rookie Hakeem Nicks the Giants wideouts – stats be damned – are not particularly physically imposing from a size or speed standpoint.  An offense can’t run on TJ Houshmandzadeh’s lite like Steve “No Longer the Other Steve Smith” Smith if the quarterback isn’t being accurate with his passes and sharp on his reads.  Further, the formerly formidable Giants rushing attack is currently lodged at a pedestrian 14th in FO stats and are averaging fewer YPC than the St. Louis Rammies.  While the San Diego secondary is unlikely to cure Eli’s recent woes, a 29th ranked rushing defense appears exceptionally vulnerable to Big Blue’s big backfield combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw.  Why San Diego then?  Because unlike the Giants here, the Bolts can come from behind via the electric arm of Philip Rivers, currently sporting the league’s 4th best yards per attempt, and rocket-fueled receiving corps led by Vincent “Wow I Am Flat Nasty” Jackson who is currently 3rd in the NFL in receiving yardage and 4th in YPC at a remarkable 17.9.  The Giants secondary has been extremely vulnerable and the weather looks OK for Sunday – and to be honest the swirling winds would affect Manning more than Rivers anyway – so I’m looking for a late cover at the very least from the Chargers in this “Draft of 2003 Bowl” at the Meadowlands.  Would not be at all surprised to see the Chargers win outright, even traveling east.

PHILADELPHIA -3 over Dallas

First just let me say that I guess because I didn’t get to get in a full week of picks last week this week has been much easier to be somewhat serious with all the picks.  I don’t like this turn of events, as I miss adventures in Wikipedia learning things about our old pals Sherman Lewis and Josh “2nd on Wikipedia Rankings and the Bucs Depth Chart” Johnson.  Maybe it’s because the Raiders, Browns, Rams, AND Bills are on bye weeks.  We’ll save the humor for them, though just thinking of Wikipedia did make me want to run and learn a bit more about new fantasy superstar Miles Austin.  Miles, it turns out, is actually from my home state of New Jersey (!), though from a town called “Gillette” somewhere in north-central NJ which I have never heard of.  He apparently went to a high school called Garfield, and actually still holds the record for the second-longest javelin throw in Bergen County history at 214 ft 8 inches.  Note to self, if a nuclear bomb hits the United States and we must again revert to spearing wildlife for meat, call Miles Austin.  He’s also probably big enough and fast enough to run down a small buffalo by hand, so all in all a real bonus for any pre or post society survival.  Really there isn’t much more to know about Miles on his Wiki page, maybe some of his relatives should get on updating that since he is about to be ridiculously famous and all.  I’m also somewhat unclear on how a gentleman who is 6′3″, 214 pounds, runs like the wind, and has outstanding hands (and can HURL a javelin) ended up playing football at Monmouth College in NJ, but I guess that’s a story for another day.  If you’re still thinking about this actual football game, I’m not sure what to tell you as it could go either way, but I am pretty comfortable stating the “over” is the way to go.

9) INDIANAPOLIS -8.5 over Houston

Went back and forth on this one as I do like this Texans team and they were getting a lot of points.  The line actually opened at 10.5 and likely because of gambling opinions similar to mine shot down to 8.5 rather quickly.  Peter King additionally points out in his picks (linked earlier) that Houston only lost by 4 and 6 points to the Colts last season, and I am seeing a recurring trend here that divisional teams – or really teams in general who get to play the Colts a lot, i.e. Patriots, Ravens, Steelers as well – seem to fare much better against Peyton and the Lucky Horseshoes than do the poor, unsuspecting foes from other conferences or divisions.  Still, I think the loss of Owen Daniels is crippling here to Houston.  As we all know, teams that play a cover-2 shell like the Colts are somewhat vulnerable to the combination fly route by the wide receiver and then the slot or TE post up the seam to pull a safety.  Without Daniels, or even their first backup receiving tight end, also apparently out with injury, the Texans are very thin as far as number 2/3 receiving options they can use to put pressure on those safeties.  With Stevie Slaton fumbling every time he touches the ball (literally true because he fumbles it the first time, and then Coach Kubiak has a seizure and benches him for the rest of the game) and Ryan Moats still only 5′8″, I’m not sure Houston’s offense is going to be clicking on all cylinders.  They need to get Slaton on the field not for his running, but for his routes out of the backfield to find alternative ways to take pressure off of the outside wideouts Andre “God” Johnson and Kevin “Cut by the Bengals” Walter.  Mario Williams was literally drafted to win these games, so we shall see if he can finally go out and do it.  I doubt it.

CINCINNATI +3 over Baltimore

And we’ve come to the Bengals.  Let’s get in the mood first with a quick shot of some Tide women wearin’ Crimson Tide linens:

Gotta love girls who wear heels to football games.  As far as this game, despite fears of a blackout in Cincinnati – come on, Bengals fans, really? – I think the Bengs are being sold short.  They match up exceptionally well with the Ravens in that they are stout against the run, they’ve already proven then can run against Baltimore’s D, and they have the ability to not only shut down Baltimore’s lone vertical threat in Derrick Mason (0 catches 3 weeks ago), but also exploit the Ravens’ vulnerabilities in their own secondary.  Carson has a winning record against the Ravens in his career, and as ESPN’s AFC North blogger James Walker notes, has often been at his best against Baltimore.  An interesting tidbit, the Ravens and Bengals are 1 and 2 in the NFL in takeaways since Marvin Lewis took over as head coach of the Bengals in 2003.  While the turnover battle was split in their first matchup, 2-2, what seems to be consistently overlooked is the fact that the Bengals had dominated the entire football game.  All people remember are the Cardiac Cats needing that last second drive to take the lead – and being aided by 2 Baltimore penalties along the way to ensure its success – but take a look at that box score.  I mean 22-12 first downs, 403-257 yards, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession advantage.  I know the Bengals have been poor off of byes in Marvin Lewis’ tenure – I believe the stat is 1-4-1 – but that’s also been because the teams have been poor in Marvin Lewis’ tenure.  They’ve also been immature and Adam Duerson-like – namely, not mentally tough.  This team is mentally tough, talented, and needed the week to get some guys healthy.  I think the Ravens are a good team and they are desperate, but this is a home dog, a live home dog, looking to make its mark on the division for the first time in years.  I can’t believe I’m saying this, it may come back to haunt me, but I believe in Carson.  I believe…in the Bengs.  Give me the points, but I don’t even need ‘em – Bengs outright, 24-20.

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FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 10-8)

1) Indianapolis -13.5 over ST. LOUIS

It was a pretty good week for the LKL’s last week, with only Joshua Cribbs’ ridiculousness standing between the Flow and a perfect 3-0 week.  Even with that ridiculousness the Steelers managed to win by 13 points, one under the spread, and outgained the Browns by a whopping 543-197 despite turning the ball over 4 times.  Sometimes, you just get unlucky.  Where I did not get unlucky, however, was in predicting these St. Louis Rammies to easily cover against the fraud that is the Jacksonville Jaguars.  I thought I smelled faint whiffs of life emerging from Missouri in their matchup with the suddenly super Vikings, but while they were able to successfully cover last week on the scoreboard, they reverted to their old miserable selves on the field, outgained 492-262 and losing the first down battle by an incredible 33-13.  3 Jaguar turnovers kept the Rams in the game late, but they won’t get those this week with a rested and undefeated Colts team coming to town.  Hell, the Colts don’t even have that far to travel, a mere 247 mile westward jaunt across I-70 will bring Peyton Manning and co. to the cozy confines of the Edward Jones Dome – or whatever they’re calling it these days – for the site of the 21st blowout by 21 or more points in the NFL this season.  No key necessary.

2) San Diego -4.5 at KANSAS CITY

I’m going back to the well here by betting, once again, against a team from the cesspool known as the “Worst Team Ever” division.  For the sake of reader sanity, I will outline the “Worst Team Ever” division standings here for you now.  It’s an 8-team division, even with the current Buffalo omission, and rankings are in against the spread record, tiebreaker real record, and if still tied, B-Flow sentiment:

The B-Flow Worst Team Ever Division Standings

1) Oakland (3-3)

2) Cleveland (3-3)

3) Washington (2-4)

4) Detroit (2-4)

5) Kansas City (2-4)

6) St. Louis (2-4)

7) Tennessee (1-5)

Tampa Bay (1-5)

That’s right.  If all you did was bet against these putrid squads you too would be 32-16 vs. Vegas.  To put that in perspective, if all you did was bet against these teams with the spread you would actually have a better record than ESPN “experts” Marcus Allen, Mike Golic and Seth Wickersham picking the games STRAIGHT UP.  Lest ye fellowes be getting overly carried away with the Chiefs’ first win last week, 14-6 over the “3rd-ranked” Native Americans, consider that this was a game whose scoring consisted of 6 field goals and a safety with 2 seconds left, and that there were a total of 23 first downs gained in the game.  SD is coming off a tough loss to a suddenly very much for real Denver team in a game where the teams battled as equals for much of the night, and really only Eddie Royal’s return heroics marked the difference in the two squads.  I know KC is a tough place to play, but 4.5 points is not nearly enough here considering the firepower on the Chargers offense and that the Chiefs, despite last week’s yuckfest, are still 29th in the league in defensive yards/game allowed.

3) New England -15.5 over TAMPA BAY

Let’s go ahead and make it a trifecta over WTE squads for the LKL’s this week.  I can keep this one simple after all of those acronyms: TB (Tom Brady) is TDG (too damned good) for the TB (Tampa Bay) “D” (defense), currently giving up 28 PPG (points per game) to TNNNEP (teams not named New England Patriots), to ETA (even think about) stopping.  Additionally, and in English now, if there’s one thing we learned from the Pats’ 59-0 romp over the not-so-Titanic-much-more-aptly-nicknamed-Flaming Thumbtacks last weekend it was this: “Randy Moss 9 yd pass from Tom Brady; 10:13; 4th quarter; 52-0 NWE.”  That’s right, up 45-0 with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter Bill Belichik was still having Tom Terrific toss balls to Randy Moss in the endzone in a snowstorm.  The Pats will not let up, and like a college team trying to inflate scoring a la Texas Tech, are quite comfortable trotting out 63-7 victors instead of an identically useful 31-7.  I wonder if Belichik knows there is no NFL BCS?  Try playing the drinking game outlined by Mike Tanier in his weekly picks column for this game – being played in London – if you get bored.

Regular Games (Season Record: 40-31)

1) Green Bay -9 over CLEVELAND

When it ain’t broke, don’t go tryin’ to fix it.  Dance with the girl that brung ya.  Let sleepin’ dogs lie.  However you want to say it, I am tapping this WTE division for all it’s worth this week!  Granted it’s somewhat disappointing that the Lions, the team racked up all of 149 total yards against this Green Bay D last week, aren’t playing, but we’ll go ahead and plan on a similar outcome here with the Derek Anderson led Brownies.  Last week we had set the over/under on D.A. completions at 7.5, and shockingly, despite only one offensive TD – though for CLE that was an upset in and of itself considering Joshua Cribbs is the only player on the entire roster with 2 TD’s – he was able to hit the over in a 9-24 performance for 122 yards, a TD and a pick.  I’m going to bump this week’s over/under on completions to 9.5, but also raise the INT O/U to 1.5.  Anyone wants to work that into a parlay bet with the Flow, just let us know.  We’re going for the completions under and INT over combo.

2) Buffalo +7 over CAROLINA

You know it’s been a little bit since we’ve stopped by our girl Stacy, so let’s go ahead and pick this meaningless game as a backdrop.  Hot Clicks often serves as inspiration for the B-Flow’s ‘ick choices, although we certainly would never run the same girl as HC on the same day, and we always do our own picture research.  .  Did that turn into a winky face?  Hope so.  Anyway, we’ve been asked a lot recently why we’ve been throwing the term “smokeshow” around left and right.  First of all, the Bro Bible – yea, guess there is one? – uses it all the time.  Secondly, when Jim Cramer screams out about 64-year old retiree women callers from Florida as being “smokeshows,” it is downright hilarious.  Lastly, it’s one of the truly rare terms used to describe a good-looking female that has 2-syllables.  The definition of “smokeshow” is basically this.  Nice work, Stacy.  You probably went ahead and clicked through that album on your own, but just in case, this one was, um, especially exceptional.  For the Bills and Panthers fans out there who are upset with my treatment of their game, well, first of all if they’re upset they’re surely female, and if they’re female they’re surely not reading this blog, but, here is a fun tidbit for you on why I’m going Bills: last week, in a WINNING effort vs. a lowly WTE outfit, Jake “Please Get Me Off of This Team Before Steve “Not the Real Steve Smith Anymore” Smith Kills Me While I’m Sleeping In The Pocket Again” Delhomme went a remarkable 9-17 for 65 (!) yards a TD and 2 picks.  Gross.

3) HOUSTON -3 over San Francisco

Nice little game here, but the intro is going to be short as we need to get this show on the road and I don’t have a lot of fun notes for this one.  If you have Insider FO puts together a nice package of tidbits over on ESPN on a weekly basis, so you could go check that out here if you are a tidbit kind of guy/girl.  Anyway, Frank Gore is supposed to be coming back this week for San Francisco, so that implies big things against a Texans run defense that has only slowed down The Passion (of the Ced) thusfar this season.  Still, and I can’t believe I am stealing this from Peter King but I am, did you know that Matty Schaub leads the NFL in TD passes right now?  It’s true!  He does!  Not in love with the 49er defense, and that beatdown they suffered just before the bye has me more than nervous about their potential for the 2nd half against teams outside the NFC Suck, er, West.  I like another big Schaub game here, nice receiving numbers for Johnson and Slaton again, and a bevy of “here come the Texans” articles come Monday after this 34-20 victory.

4) NY Jets -5.5 over OAKLAND

I will not jump on the Fatso wagon.  Will not do it.  Don’t care that his counterpark Mark “Uhoh, Suddenly Jets Fans Aren’t Sure About Me As the Franchise” Sanchez posted this gem last week against Buffalo: 10-29, 119 yds, 0 TD, 5 INT for a whopping rating of 8.3!!!  To put how epically bad that performance was in perspective, consider that it is about 2.5 times WORSE than even Fatso’s worst performance of this young season.  Look, Oakland will not move the ball again, and I can’t see the Jets winning by anything less than a TD.  Remember, FATSO.

5) New Orleans -6 over MIAMI

This one is a little trickier than perhaps it seems, because if there is one thing that Miami will do – especially at home – it is pound the rock incessantly using Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams out of the Wildcat.  I’m not convinced the Saints are stout enough up front to completely turn them aside in this game, and the result will be about 35-40 minutes of possession for Flipper’s boys.  Unfortunately for said Marine Mammals, the Saints are fully capable of putting up 31 points in about 15 minutes.  That annihilation of the Giants defense last week to the tune of 493 yards, 48 points and a 4th quarter procession was incredible to watch.  Until the Saints give me a reason to think they WON’T cover a 6 point spread, I’m not just hiding behind points with them.

6) Atlanta +4 over DALLAS

When I first opened up the spreads this week the Atlanta game jumped out as one I might want to lock.  As the readers of the Flow know, we are very high on this Falcons team and not particularly high on Dallas.  As we always do, however, the Flow went ahead and took a closer look this week and found that although the erstwhile Dirty Birds did indeed beat the Bears last week – and thank goodness for that – it wasn’t exactly pretty.  Consider, their starting quarterback ended the game with a 68.3 rating and their leading rusher had 30 yards on 12 carries.  It’s hard to win that way.  As an added issue, they’ve also just lost a key starting cornerback Brian Williams for the season which will make it especially difficult to keep up with rising Cowboys star Miles Austin, a preseason FO favorite.  At the very least, Austin, Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton represent three tall, strong, and fast gentlemen, which is three more than currently exist in the entire Atlanta secondary.  Why Atlanta, then?  Because I believe in Matt Ryan to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez vs. the Dallas secondary, and I believe in a return to battering ram status for Michael Turner against Wade Phillips’ stunt-happy schemes.  I’d look for a shootout here, and not surprisingly Vegas is already ahead of me on that one with the 47.5 O/U, and for the Falcons to at the very least keep it close throughout with a still banged up Marion Barber not quite ready to seal all deals just yet.  Give me the points and the better quarterback on a hunch.

7) Minnesota +5.5 over PITTSBURGH

Hated making this pick, hated it.  Do not ever like to pick against Pittsburgh at home in a big game, especially considering this year’s Steelers’ offensive strength plays right into the Vikings’ – relative, anyway – defensive weakness in the secondary.  Still, you cannot ignore this Vikings team anymore.  The QBWSNBN is looking like the QBWSNBN from the first half of last year, and All-Day AP is still running over, around, and through people despite picking up a couple knocks the past few weeks.  I want to put on the record that I am a little concerned about the longevity of greatness for this edition of the Purple People Eaters what with quite a few greybeards around at key positions and a running back who refuses to go out of bounds.  Still, Percy Harvin and the young receivers are thriving in an environment where an actual NFL quarterback is present – anyone still calling for Tarvaris Jackson?  Anyone? Is he even still on the roster?  Anyone surprised NOBODY even thought about making a move for him at the deadline?  I digress. – and the team is currently playing some of the best football in the league.  A nugget for thought as we move on: Minnesota had 12 possessions against a still tough Ravens defense, and got points on 7 of them.  I can still see the Steelers winning this game, but 5.5 points is simply way too many for a team playing at this level, I don’t care where it’s being played.  Absolutely a potential Super Bowl preview here.

NY GIANTS -7 over Arizona

Very tough game to call given how amazing Arizona looked last week, and just how schizophrenic the team has been on a week-to-week basis throughout the year.  Now, I know the Seahawks had 3rd and 4th stringers along the O-Line, but Matt Hasselbeck did actually play the whole game and the Blue/Neon Men Group are still a tough team in their building.  Arizona didn’t just beat them, either, they demolished them.  The Redbirds allowed only 128 total yards, 7 first downs (2 fewer than the Titans got in a 59-0 loss), and held the football for an unheard of 43 minutes!  Now the defending NFC Champs draw the team many thought deserved to be NFC Champs through most of last season, and it’s a bit of a show-me game here.  7 points is a lot, but I love the matchup of the Giants ferocious D-Line against Kurt Warner’s pocket presence/fumble-itis and the still very shaky Cardinal O-Line, and unlike Julius Jones and the Seahawks’ practice squad, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and the Giants big uglies are a group that will be committed to testing that number 1 ranked Arizona run defense.  The weather report for the Meadowlands on Sunday looks ominous, which, as the proud owner of the more physical club, must be music to Tom Coughlin’s ears.

9) Philadelphia -7 over WASHINGTON

I don’t know what is going on over there in Washington, but it sure isn’t pretty.  That link had nothing to do with the Washington football team if you couldn’t guess that already, so you might want to go back and click it.  Back to the nation’s capital, where apparently the Indigenous Persons have opted to cede playcalling control over to one “Sherman Lewis,” a man who has been on the payroll for about 5 weeks.  Interesting decision.  There’s Sherman!  Looks like he may have had a rough go of it in High School, so the B-Flow decided to head over to Wikipedia to see what kind of a go he’s had of it elsewhere.  Sherman’s page is immediately enlightening, as we quickly discover this is a man who has been out of the NFL since 2004.  Recall, he has been OUT OF THE LEAGUE for more years than weeks he has been with his current organization, and yet he has just been awarded playcalling duties.  Speaking of playcalling, Wikipedia tells us that Sherman’s last post was as the offensive coordinator of the memorable 2003/2004 Lions offense.  Considering the Lions had the NFL’s very worst offense that season, this is unfortunate for football fans in the greater Potomac drainage basin area.  In more positive news, it does turn out Sherman was an All-America running back at Michigan State, though sadly for reasons unnamed, he was not able to turn that collegiate success into an NFL career of any sort, flaming out after two years with the, I believe still functional, Toronto Argonauts of the CFL.  Really there’s not much else on his page, although this article alerts us to the fact that Lewis does bring “experience and championships” to the Washington organization.  Dan Snyder must have forgotten that Joe Gibbs also brought those qualities, however quickly learned that championships from 10-15 years ago perhaps do not directly result in new championships.  Of greater concern to Eagles fans will be the fact that they managed to lose to Fatso and the Raiders despite not turning the ball over once, and committing only 4 penalties.  In fact, Oakland and Philadelphia ran a nearly identical number of plays last Sunday (65 and 66, respectively) and the Raiders simply did more with those plays, outgaining the Birds 325-283.  While the B-Flow’s only time in Philly is spent at the beautiful Citizen’s Bank Park, and not listening to Philly talk radio, it’s hard to believe more Kevin Kolb whispers aren’t abound nationally after a performance like that.  Regardless, the Eagles now get to play a team which accumulated all of 7 first downs against the Kansas City Chiefs last week, and who’s primary playcaller – as we’ve just gone over – has been out of the NFL for 5 years.  I guess the only downside there would be it may be hard to find any HD tape on Sherman Lewis’ offensive schemes.  I’ll give the Eagles a pass on last week and see if they return to normalcy.

10) CINCINNATI -1 over Chicago

Finally we come to the Bengals, who were brought quite rudely back down to earth by the Houston Texans in the second half last week.  The offense continued its trend of disappearing for an entire half – unfortunately this time it was the latter of the two – only this time the defense got in on the act by not volunteering to show up at all, surrendering 472 yards of offense to Matt Schaub and co.  For the Bears, it was a game of what-ifs, as they actually played fairly well on the road in Atlanta, but more costly turnovers cost them a shot at 4-1, and now the Monsters of the Midway find themselves looking up some ways to the Vikings and tied with the rival Packers in the NFC North.  Both teams need this game, and both teams really are looking to show people who they really are this week.  Really there’s no logical reason to take the Bengals, they’re 10 yards better on offense but 45 yards worse on defense, and frankly have yet to play a game in which they looked remotely good from start to finish.  The Bears defense can still fly around the ball, and with the Bengals likely without two starting defensive linemen – Antwan Odom for the season and Domata Peko likely for just this week – Jay Cutler should have some time in the pocket to find the weak links of the Bengal secondary (aka anyone other than the starting two corners) and pick them apart.  Expect to see a lot of Leon Hall on Devin Hester and Jonathan Joseph on TE Greg Olsen, leaving safeties Roy Williams, Chris Crocker and Chinedum Ndukwe to cover the Johnny Knox’s and Earl Bennett’s of the world.  Frankly the Bears names don’t matter in that equation, as the only thing the Bengals safeties have covered this year is a lot of ground running after people towards their end zone.  To make matters worse, B-Flow sworn enemy Adam Duerson has picked the Bengals in his game of the week, a remarkable turnaround from the man who dubbed the squad mental Nancies just a few short weeks ago.  The Bengals remain mentally tough, but given injuries, inconsistencies with penalties on offense, along with inexplicable attachments to 3rd and 4th string tight ends and aversions to young, talented 3rd down backs, the vibe in Cincinnati is not positive right now.  Still, the B-Flow believes in Carson Palmer, and was encouraged by Chad Ochocinco’s slightly more involved role in the gameplan last week.  Look for another squeaker, and potentially more heroics by number 9 in Halloween colors.  That said, should the Bengals fail to step up to this test as they did last week – and that was following their best statistical game of the season – the Flow will not fall for their mirage again this season.  Put up or shut up time in the Jungle.

And with that, we bid adieu, but not without one last farewell from weekly ‘ick Stacy.  Enjoy the games!

where they play…

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FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 7-5)

1) Atlanta +2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO

So a few things happened last week in the LKL section that I should touch on before getting to this weeks picks.  First, I had my first losing week.  I apologize.  It shan’t happen again.  Second, I was victimized by the vengeance of the QBWSHNB, something I didn’t know possible, during the best performance I’ve seen the Norsemen put on in quite some time.  Finally, I bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to give points.  This will not happen again.  Sadly there were no lessons to review this week, hopefully you all did the assignments on your own and learned something from last Sunday’s experience, but believe me, this will be a good week for the BFlow.  Starting right here.  (Channeling inner-Mark Schlereth): The Atlanta Falcons are a better football team than the San Francisco 49ers.  They’ve got better football players, and a better football coach.  As long as this game is being played on a football field (check), this football game will be won by the better football team.  Falcons will win this outright.  Write that down.  Generic Coffee related joke.

2) Pittsburgh -10.5 over DETROIT

Look the Lions aren’t embarrassing.  I had another sentence planned here, but I just re-read that first one.  Doesn’t that just say it all?  When the best thing you can say about a team is that they are not embarrassing, well, they’ve got a long way to go before I take them to cover ANY spread against a hungry Steeler team not accustomed to looking up at TWO teams in their division.  Frankly, this line jumped out from the second I saw it late last Sunday (yes, I do check the lines before the calendar page even goes to Monday) and Stafford not being able combined with Kevin Smith’s lingering shoulder soreness only makes me feel more confident.  I’m not sure I even had to throw away the key on this one, never had it made in the first place.

3) New England -3 over DENVER

There were a bevy of options available this week, so I’m not sure how I ended up with three road teams, but there you have it.  Please refer back to my NFL Lessons from last week where I announced how Denver’s season would play out, this is the game where they lose close to the mighty Patriots eliciting further swooning from the fickle media elite.  After having viewed last week’s action, however, I am more convinced than ever that New England is about to explode and Denver is an OK team masquerading as a pretty good one.  I see the Pats winning pretty comfortably here.  Speaking of comfortable, these picks have been a little too comfortable – let’s spice it up a little here in the regular games!

Regular Games (Season Record: 26-23)

1) NY GIANTS -15 over Oakland

Anytime you’re looking for a little liveliness in an NFL column just go ahead and turn to Fatso.  Ahhh, Fatso.  You know things aren’t looking up in your NFL career if even the Wall Street Journal is noting that you may be…”flawed”…and that is the nicest thing people have said about you in weeks.  Let’s go on a mini-tangent here.  Really, WSJ, “flawed?”  We’re talking about a guy who is literally completing LESS THAN 40% OF HIS PASSES (!?!?!?!?!?! good god that is amazing, FO does a nice recap) and the word we come up with is…”flawed?”  Maybe you aren’t ready for this whole sports section thing just yet, Rupert; let the WSJ be the WSJ and let’s get on with it.  Actually, on second thought, I have a better picks record than all three of their “Picks Experts,” and yes, I know one of them is a coin, so maybe they should stick around to make me look better.  And I mean I totally have a better personality…  Oh yea, this game.  Ummm…  You know what would be fun?  What do you think the line would be if we KNEW Carr were going to start?  What?  That’s what Vegas thinks this line is?  It’s really going up to like minus 24 when Eli starts?  Sigh…  In happier news, it does look like “Fatso” monikers are catching on (scroll to OAK preview) for our beloved number 2 in black!  Augustus Gloop, you say?  Yes!

2) PHILADELPHIA -15.5 over Tampa Bay

CALLING AWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLLLLL CAPTAINS!!!!!!!!!!  What the hell just happened?  Anyway, doesn’t the Bucs whole pirate ship/pirate/skull thing just remind you of Captain Morgan’s rum?  It does for me, and I bet B Flow pal Raheem Morris (PLEASE peruse that wikipedia page again – it is beyond priceless) wishes he had that “40-shot bottle” every time he watches his offense trot onto the field.  Or, for that matter, his defense.  Tampa fans, as well, are probably being forced into slightly more libatious tailgates this season.  Your 2009 Tampa Bay Bucs, CALLING AAWWWWWWWWWWWLLLLL CAPTAINS!!!!!!

3) Minnesota -10 over ST. LOUIS

As we were trolling along the dregs of the league here the Flow bumped into the Rams, so we’ll do their game next.  Did you know that over the past 3 seasons the Rams have a worse record than the Lions?  Seriously, they do!  5-32 to 8-28.  (Can I now get an ESPN special about how great this sentence was “for the city of Detroit, with alll it’s going through with the economy?”  Thanks.  What?  No, no I don’t want the key to the city.  Detroit?  God, no.)  I don’t think I’ve been appreciating just how bad this Rams team has been this season, tied for 27th in offense, 22nd in defense, and lacking any sort of professional wide receiver, quarterback, or secondary player currently, they have a long way to go.  I understand this could be a bit of a letdown game for Minnesota, but the only way St. Louis can surprise teams is by unleashing Steven “I swear I’m still relevant in fantasy” Jackson on people, and, well, you can’t unleash RB’s on Minnesota.  Especially since the Williams gentlemen are apparently allowed to take steroids without suspension.

4) Cleveland +6 over BUFFALO

Peter King noted that this week’s 1pm slate of games may be the worst in NFL history outside of the Bengals-Ravens showdown.  I believe he is correct.  This is exhibit A.  I dare you to find a single non-Bills or Browns – scratch that – a single non-Bills fan in the United States who cares about the outcome of this game.  When Mohammed Massaquoi is the headline player, well, next.

5) Houston +5.5 over ARIZONA

Doesn’t this game smell of an overrated “oh, they’re coming off a bye” game?  With an extra sweetener of “oh, they’re the NFC Champs and they’ve been sluggish and they’re coming off of a bye at home raring to go?”  Admit it, that statement just fired you up to take the Cardinals.  It made total sense, didn’t it?  Well, I’m here to tell you that Arizona is 1-2, 0-2 at home, is giving up 360 yards/game, and is trying to decide between Tim Hightower and a guy named Beanie as their starting RB.  Kurt Warner looks old.  Real old, and Mario Williams is generally not the cure to bad tackle play.  I’m not sure Houston wins this game, but I like their chances to continue putting up points to make it close throughout.

6) SEATTLE -1 over Jacksonville

I almost locked this one.  I know, you’re shocked, but bear with me.  I like the Green Men Group with Hasselbeck in charge, and he will be again in this one.  You’ll also recall my theory that Jacksonville plays especially well against teams in their division, but not so well outside the division.  Well, I’m testing that theory here as they travel all the way across the country to one of the loudest places in the league.  Further, these neon seabirds are quite feisty on their own turf, especially against east-coast foes – just ask the Jets last season!  Granted there don’t look to be any weather concerns on Sunday, but just color me a little skeptical on the whole Jaguars marching on the road for victories at this point.  Remember, after week 2 we were talking about Jacksonville being one of the worst teams in the league.  And really, now that Seattle has delineated what is and what is not acceptable in the kicking game, sky’s the limit!

7) Indianapolis -3.5 over TENNESSEE

Another one I almost locked.  Probably should have.  Let’s see if Jeff Fisher has any funny YouTube moments, shall we?  Eh, not much – this one is pretty amusing though.  To be serious, for a second, this Tennessee team is who I thought they were.  Perhaps not who Peter King thought they were, but who I thought they were.  Score one for the B-Flow!!!  Oh, wait, I was too scared to pick against them last week.    Interesting things are happening here, though, as we may see a team be generally known as the “best 0-3 team ever,” only to have me call them “most overrated 0-3 team ever,” only to now fall to 0-5, and officially EARN the title of best 0-5 team ever!  Now that is exciting!  There aren’t many candidates for “best 0-5 team ever,” probably because not many teams even go 0-5, but I’d go ahead and say these Titans are probably one of the better teams in that bunch.  Don’t think that was so much a backhanded complement as it was a turn-your-back, walk 10 paces a way, raise the back of your hand and scoff complement, but there it is.

CAROLINA -4 over Washington

Two repugnant groups, though few football teams are as universally reviled as this year’s Washington Native Americans.  Could there be a more brutal team to watch – ever?  It’s between them and those Rodney Hampton era Giants teams with the just good enough to be annoying defense, and the 2 yard run, 2 yard run, incomplete pass offense to rival even the very best play sequences from former “offensive wizard” Jim Zorn.  Check out that wink, though.  He’s still a wizard of winks.  Give the guy an extension!  What did I just say?  No, no, don’t, please don’t.  Damned winks.  All seductive and persuasive…

9) KANSAS CITY +7.5 over Dallas

I’m taking the home dog here, but I’m not sure why.  I looked at this game initially at 8.5 and was thinking Chiefs, but now at 7.5 I’m feeling pretty queasy about betting on a team with this guy as the head coach.  Lighten up, Todd!  You’re an NFL head coach!  You were the offensive coordinator on the NFC CHAMPION ARIZONA CARDINALS last season!  Rumors out of Buckley are suggesting that Tony Romo might be on the verge of losing his job, but considering I can’t name the Cowboys backup quarterback and that Jason Whitten makes all opponents of Romo within the organization disappear I’m not sure that’s going to happen.  According to KC Joyner Romo has the toughest group of pass defenses left in the NFL this season, so after this week he’s not going to have sparkling stats to fall back on, but something still tells me he’ll do enough to get Dallas to 8-8 or so.  Holy god I just looked it up, JON KITNA is the Cowboys backup quarterback.  Yes, yes, yes, let’s launch this right now I need more Jon Kitna – NFL quarterback (not on my team) please!

10) NY Jets -1.5 over MIAMI

I’m getting tired, so I’m not giving this game as much attention as I probably should. It will probably be a good game, probably low scoring, and almost certainly not entertaining until the last 10 minutes, assuming Miami can keep it close for that long.  Rex Ryan has a history of smushing the wildcat, and with Chad Henne “pasta” at “normal QB,” Tony “bespectacled Soprano” Sparano has little choice but to run wildcat early and often.  “al Dente,” as we will now call Mr. Henne, has pretty much only one standout tidbit on his wiki page, namely, that he was the first – and remains only – quarterback in the history of the University of Michigan to go 0-4 vs. Ohio State.  Bravo, al Dente, try not to get OVERCOOKED against the Jets Monday Night.  I wanted to type LOL there so badly.  I’ve got no gas in the tank.  Time to check out our ‘ick one more time, pump a Primetime song (I always prefer #8, though #1 is SUPREMELY underrated.  If someone can teach me how to link to my iTunes I would allow you all to listen to these songs yourself, because no man football fan is complete without the mp3’s of the old school ESPN NFL Primetime music.  Seriously.) and get ready for the game of the week!!!!!!!!  (Hint: A certain team from a certain midwestern city is involved.  No, not the Bears dammit.)

11) Cincinnati +8.5 over BALTIMORE

Ok, ladies, here we go.  It is, in the words of quite a few scribes – ha, totally fooled you with that random dude.  Seriously, though, PK, Donnie Banks, of course Pete “Go Bengals” Prisco, et al have all dubbed this a “showdown” – a good, old-fashioned SHOWDOWN this week in Baltimore for AFC North early-season supremacy.  Before we go all purple here, let’s remember a few things: 1) Carson Palmer is 6-3 vs. the Ravens in his career, 2) Ravens starting LT Jared Gaither is hurt and will likely not play, forcing rookie Michael Oher to man LT this week for Baltimore, and 3) Bengals DE Antwan Odom put on 30 lbs. of muscle in the offseason.  I swear, he did.  Now, the Bengals have the look of frauds.  They’re offense is a pitiful 21st in yards, and the defense is a – dare I say – overrated 17th!  (Baltimore, btw, is 3rd and 8th respectively)  It took them nearly 75 full minutes to dispatch the woeful Browns last week (and Rob Ryan still doesn’t think they did so), a team the Ravens dismissed on the same field these teams will see on Sunday by a score of 34-3.  And it wasn’t even that close.  The Ravens are angry.  They’re coming off a tough road loss to the Pats, a game they very realistically could have won had Mark Clayton simply held onto the ball on 4th down.  Ray Lewis is mad.  Everything is primed for a Ravens statement win at home.  But hold on a second.  Bengals fans are seeing things they’ve never seen before.  A late comeback win against Pittsburgh?  What?  A strong performance on the road after a demoralizing defeat?  Huh?  A defense that dug in during Overtime to hold on?  What is this?  Multiple 4th down conversions?  With apologies to some f’ing moron named Adam Duerson, this Bengals team is mentally tough.  When backed into a corner, something they always seem to do to themselves, this football team FIGHTS BACK.  So let’s take a look at it again, from the Bengals perspective.  They’ve got a shutdown corner in Leon Hall who can take out Derrick Mason, and they’ve got a young, athletic, hard-hitting LB crew that should be able to contain Todd Heap and underneath receivers better than in years past.  Their safeties, pathetic as they are, are built to win games against teams that try to hammer the Bengals on the ground, and the Ravens will indeed try to do that.  Carson has always played relatively well against Baltimore, and Chad is not intimidated by the Baltimore coverages.  There are weapons, and there is Ced.  Bernard Scott is getting more involved.  The O-Line is gelling even without this piece of garbage.  (Turn up the music).  Look, I KNOOWWW this team doesn’t have the numbers (god, I can’t believe I am saying this…).  I KNOOWWWW this team doesn’t have the deep passing game of 2005.  I KNOWWWW that the offensive line is a bunch of retreads, where someone named Evan Mathes and someone named Kyle Cook are starters.  I KNOOWWW  they’re still the Bengals (no, those aren’t the same play).  But this team has something.  It’s got moxie.  It’s got heart.  And most importantly, it’s got 8.5 points to work with.  Who dey?  The Ravens, but not by 9 points.

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FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 6-3)

1) Green Bay +3 over MINNESOTA

It was a big week last week for the B Flow’s picks, and it would have been a great week with a 3-0 LKL section if not for Jake Delhomme’s poopiness, but this week the games get tougher.  We’ll start here in the QB-who-shall-not-be-named-Bowl I, between two sexy contenders in the NFC: the Pack, and the Vikes.  Unfortunately, Warren Sapp took Green Bay, but fortunately I’ve got Phil Simms on the other side.  Seriously, hold on with this pick.  Just take the time to click that link.  Starting about the 4 minute mark those guys are just incoherent!!  A select gem: “Dallas’ offense…[indecipherable grunting and motioning]…they just…[more of the same]…a little…almost a turnover here…[John Madden-esque noises]…[BOOM tough actin' Tinactin]…they’re a little bit out there right now” -Warren Sapp (note, Dallas has the number 3 offense in the NFL).  Anyway, back to the game.  Look, Minnesota is going to run the ball on Green Bay – everyone knows it.  But I also think Green Bay knows full well what QBWSNBN can and can’t do at this point, and they are going to put 8-9 guys in the box and say hey, 4, beat us.  I also like Aaron Rodgers’ ability to bring Green Bay back against the Vikes’ secondary more than the reverse situation.  We’ve got strength vs. weakness on both sides of the ball here, I take the passing game of GB to score more points than AP.  Plus you know McCarthy REALLY wants this, and you’re telling me he can’t run laps around this guy?  Give me the points!  Give me the Packers!!

2) New York Giants -8.5 at KANSAS CITY

I knowwww this is the Giants 2nd road game in a row.  I knowwwww that I’m laying the wood here with 8.5 points to a home dog.  I knowwwww KC’s D can play tough, especially at home.  But let’s call a spade a spade.  The New York Giants are an elite, elite football unit.  The Kansas City Chiefs lost to Fatso.  Throw away the points, and the key.

3) Cincinnati -6 at CLEVELAND

I can’t believe I’m doing it, but I’m doing it!  F it!  If the Bengals don’t cover this spread I’ll be worried about a lot more than this column which nobody reads other than myself.  Look, this is as much a Browns pick as it is a Bengals pick, and the Bengals don’t have to dominate the game to win by a touchdown.  In all honesty, I can’t even envision a scenario where I’m sitting at Phebe’s around 230pm on Sunday, it’s halftime, and I’m comfortably ahead, say, 21-3.  Can’t even envision it.  This is what it’s like to be a Bengals fan, and why I hated making this call.  That said, if last week proved ANYTHING, it was that this MIGHT be a new Bengals.  Plus the Browns have this guy.  Sometimes you just have to live a little, you can’t worry about the jellyfish, and rubbin’s racin’.  Anyone who just followed that sequence deserves a little pat on the back.

Regular Games (Season Record: 21-17 after last week’s 10-3!  WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!)

1) HOUSTON -8.5 over Oakland

Ah, Fatso.  Let’s take a trip to your Wiki page, shall we?  HA!  Look at his picture on his freaking wikipedia page!!!  Look at it!!!  Do you think he’s just thrown his 10th straight incompletion on 3rd down, or did McDonalds just tell him they were out of cheeseburgers?  This happened once, in London, by the way.  McDonalds ran out of cheeseburgers I sh*t you not.  Jamie and I sat down in the middle of Harold Square or whatever square and protested.  We were escorted away.  Seriously though, do we even need to read the rest of the page or discuss this game any further?  Oh, fiiine.  If Darren McFadden can’t bust out against this defense, he’s never going to bust out.  I would have locked the Raiders for a late cover here, but the problem is the quarterback of the trailing team generally throws to earn that late cover…and well, you know who’s quarterbacking Oakland’s merry crewe…

2) Tennessee -3 over JACKSONVILLE

I’m nervous about this game for a couple reasons.  First, I wrote all week about how Tennessee is overrated, and I think they are, hard as that is to accomplish at 0-3.  Seriously though, would we be talking this much about how good Tennessee was if they hadn’t lost all three of their games?  Would we be talking about “the greatest 1-2 team ever” if they had beaten, say, the freaking Texans?  Second, as I’ve mentioned previously, Jacksonville plays well against teams it knows.  Maybe it takes Jack Del Rio a couple of games a year to pull a game plan together, I don’t know.  Still, I’m going Tennessee because a) it’s a cop out, b) Jacksonville’s only strength is MJD and the one thing Tennessee still does well is stop the run, and c) the game is in Jacksonville, where the depression of playing in a home stadium of about 15 people last had the effect of leading the Jaguars to an annihilation at the hands of the Cardinals.  Let’s give the ol’ Flaming Thumbtacks a shot to prove they really are “THE GREATEST 0-3 TEAM OF ALL TIME!”

3) Baltimore +1.5 at NEW ENGLAND

This is a phenomenal football game, and I would never bet it.  The number 2 and 4 teams in my not-so-clever O-Rankings, there is every opportunity that this game really is the proverbial “AFC Title Game Preview.”  I don’t need to preview this for gambling, or at all, you just need to watch it.  Fun tidbit to remember that is oft forgotten now since the G-Men ended the Pats perfect season in the Super Bowl – remember how sick this game was?  Why Ravens here, then?  Because they’re the best team I’ve seen this year.

4) CHICAGO -10 over Detroit

Not gonna talk about the Bears.  Detroit, I know they got a win, but 1 win in 20 games in this league is unacceptable.  Completely unacceptable.  No excuses.  You’re telling me you’re a football team, you’re in this league, and you go out, and you lose 19 of 20?  Not gonna happen.  God I love the Mora family.

5) WASHINGTON -7.5 over Florida Marl- er Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Johnson and his 38 Madden rating, thanks Simmons, vs. the Native Americans?  Crap there is puke spilling out the corners of my mouth, let’s move on.

6) INDIANAPOLIS -10 over Seattle

Didn’t I intro this piece with something about favorites costing a lot more this week so that Vegas could play suckers who wanted to keep riding Vegas?  Well f’em I say, f’em!!!  (Assume Harold Lederman voice) (Yes, youtube him immediately, he’s HBO’s “official scorer” for boxing) OK, JIM! I GOTTA TELL YOU SOMETHIN, THESE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ARE LOOKING REALLLLLL GOOD, PEYTON MANNING, HE COMES IN, HE THROWS THE BALL DOWNFIELD, SIDEWAYS, LEFT, RIGHT, ALL OVER THE PLACE, AND THIS SENECA WALLACE, HE CAN’T THROW AT ALL!  I’VE GOT THIS QUARTER SCORED INDIANAPOLIS 14, SEATTLE 0, JUST LIKE THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS, AND I GOTTA TELL YOU SOMETHIN JIM, IT DOESN’T LOOK LIKE SEATTLE CAN COME BACK IN THIS ONE, THEY’VE GOT NO PUNCH, THEY’VE GOT NO NOTHING, BUT OHHH MAN WE’VE GOT A GAME DOWN HERE JIM!  Uhm, thanks Harold.

7) NEW ORLEANS -7 over NY Jets

That’s right, I’m taking team sexy NFC over team sexy AFC, giving the 7.  For those of you who have been following all week – i.e. nobody – you could probably guess that I’m not quite as high on these Jets as most, and I do believe in these Saints.  Couple reasons.  First, the Jets and Rex Ryan win by blitzing, but not only does Brees kill the blitz, but the Saints short passing game usually is so fast that it doesn’t give the blitz time to get to the quarterback anyway!  Second, and along these lines, did you know that for all of these accolades the Jets are getting about pressuring the QB, they actually only have 2 sacks this season?  Yep.  Do I feel good about 7 points?  No, that’s a lot, but like I said, Vegas came to play this week.  Bottom line is Mark “I’m not Matt Leinart, don’t look at my picture just watch the game tape” Sanchez is still a rookie in his first loud, dome game vs. an opponent that now has 3 weeks of film on him, including last week’s solid effort by the (gasp!) Titans.  The Jets run game at this point has not looked strong enough to really take advantage of the Saints D, and while Darrelle Revis may be one hell of a corner, Drew “2nd Coming” Brees isn’t one to zero in on one WR, so the Jets are going to have to figure out how to cover everybody.  Either way, the somebody is emerging from this game with a pretty strong statement to the league about legitimacy.

Buffalo PK at MIAMI

I would have locked the sh*t out of Miami if they had an NFL quarterback healthy and on the roster.  Tyler “Bobby once had 51 saves for the White Sox” Thigpen does not count, nor does Chad Henne “pasta,” or Pat “black or” White.  Wow, I’m really forcing it there.  Probably because this is a boring game between two boring teams that doesn’t matter.  (Slowly backing away with hands up and grimace on face from rabid pack of angry Bills fans…  Hey, I picked you all right?)

9) St. Louis +9.5 at SAN FRANCISCO

Are the Rams really so epically bad that they are giving almost 10 points to Shaun Hill and Glen Coffee?  Really?  Kyle Boller even has been showing a pulse lately!  And don’t even start with the “oh they’ll miss Laurent Robinson this week.”  Really, Laurent Robinson, really?  Give me the points, it’s the NFC West, next.

10) DENVER +3 over Dallas

Refer to my opening pick for Warren Sapp’s analysis, or keep watching the video and check out Phil Simms’ insight.  He actually says he is “too scared” to pick the Broncos.  Scared of what, Phil?  Seriously?  Of Showtime’s subscriber base?  Trust me, they’re just members for the porn and Californication.  If you read my “what we learned” for this week you know how I think this goes, so I have to pick Denver just to see it really happen.  I am giddy at the potential national media articles a Denver win here would bring.  Plus I want to show I have more cojones than Phil Simms.

11) San Diego +6 at PITTSBURGH

Ugh, I already hate this pick.  This is a really good game, and I’m glad it’s going to get national coverage on Sunday night.  We have two very real football teams, one of which is already really needing a win in Pittsburgh, and the other of which may be really needing one if Denver goes to 4-0.  I do have a hard time seeing San Diego winning this game outright, but as I’ve alluded to before, the Steelers have a tendency of making everything close.  Added in here is the likelihood of the late cover thanks to the Chargers’ outrageously good screen/dumpoffs and deep passing game.  I would say the Steelers should get all over Rivers through a banged up Bolts line, but they didn’t really get to Carson Palmer through a Bengals beat up line, so I’m not sure that’s a lock here either.  No Polamalu tips the scales, for me, as I don’t think this Steelers outfit is good enough to give 6 points to another good team – first half in Cincinnati be damned.

Good slate of games this week, and finally, with apologies to Esti, just because I can I’m going to give everyone a flashback to week 1’s ‘ick, who apparently enjoys rollerblading and horseback riding (it shows), as a parting gift.  ENJOY!!!!

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 4-2)

Carolina +8.5 over DALLAS

New Orleans -6 over BUFFALO

BALTIMORE -13.5 over Cleveland

Regular Games (Season record 11-14)

Tennessee +3 over NY JETS

HOUSTON -3.5 over Jacksonville

PHILADELPHIA -7.5 over Kansas City

NY Giants -6.5 over TAMPA BAY

DETROIT +6.5 over Washington

Green Bay -6 over ST. LOUIS

San Francisco +7 over MINNESOTA

Atlanta +4.5 over NEW ENGLAND

Chicago -2 over SEATTLE

SAN DIEGO -6 over Miami

CINCINNATI +3.5 over Pittsburgh

Denver -2 over OAKLAND

Indianapolis +3 over ARIZONA

anyway, there is only one football league in this country that plays on sundays, on normal football fields, and that features the very best footballers in the world.  it is the national football league.  this week’s ‘ick sponsor is elsa pataky (hence non-test week picks AND ‘icks not SANS ‘icks), who is just about the hottest girl on the planet.  click that, and if you get bored with my picks just stare at it for a while, then come back.  and without further ado, lets move on to week 2 picks in the league…  where they play… (to steal from mikey francesa)…

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FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 2-1)

1) Indianapolis -3 over MIAMI

Inexplicably, the gentlemen on Showtime’s – not HBO’s anymore – Inside the NFL went with Miami to win OUTRIGHT in this game.  Upon further inspection, the two lead culprits of this outlandish stance were Phil Simms and Warren Sapp.  I exhale, smile, and look forward to a comfortable evening of breadwinning this Monday night.

2) Seattle +1 over SAN FRANCISCO

Call this the Football Outsiders “green game” of the week.  They are quite confident in this Seattle victory, as am I.  Long story short is, San Francisco is not a very good football team.  Neither is Seattle, but they are the proverbial “nicest house in a crappy neighborhood,” and as far as neighborhoods go, well, the NFC West is akin to a cross between Liberty St. in Cincinnati and State St. Chicago. Yikes.  Bottom line is, with Hasselbeck healthy (ish), an NFL-caliber receiving corps (as opposed to last season’s infection of the Michael Bumpus), and an underrated defense Seattle is more than capable of handling Shaun Hill et al, even if the absence of Leroy Hill means a few more yards for Frank “I didn’t invent the internet, that was Al” Gore.

3) Cincinnati +9 over GREEN BAY

I’m doing it!  I’m not only taking 3 road teams, but one of them is my beloved Bengals!  Look, I know I am probably somewhat deluded on this game, but are you telling me the Packers were going to be favored by 9 points if that tip drill to Brandon Stokley DIDN’T happen?  I can almost convince myself this is a good thing, actually, forcing the Bengals to realize that last week’s performance simply wasn’t good enough, and I think they come out desperate for a win this week knowing they have the Steelers next week.  It’s not frozen tundra time in GB yet (weather report says 71 degrees and sunny for Sunday), and it’s not like Green Bay looked like gangbusters in their win over the completely overrated Bears (rant on them later).  If not for 4 ridiculous Cutler INT’s the Bears may well have won last week, and like Cincinnati, the Pack still needed a last few minutes drive for the winning score, and, in fact, were a tip drill away from losing.  The Bengals defense is good.  The Bengals offense is not this bad.  As I mentioned earlier this week, Carson is at a career crossroads.  I don’t necessarily think the Bengals WILL win outright this week, but I think they CAN.  You give me 9 points in that scenario?  I’ll take it.  Go Bengs.

Regular Games (Season Record: 5-7)

4) Carolina +6 over ATLANTA

This was my wiseguy special, aka the game which the general betting public has completely overreacted to, all week, but then not only did the Sports Guy steal my thunder, but so, apparently, did underrated ESPN blogger Chad Millman!  Sadly, his link escapes me, though it was Insider content anyway.  Logic here being, of course, that there’s no way the Panthers are this bad and can turn it over that many times again.  They were a 12-4 team last year!  The thing that kept me from locking this, however, was the combination of the old “mainstream I’m outsmarting Vegas” pick which never works, and the fact that even while going 12-4 last season Carolina found time for a 45-28 thrashing in Atlanta.  Not good.  6 points?  Still too many for me to go ATL, however, based on their putrid week 1 performance.

5) JACKSONVILLE -3 over Arizona

I like this game.  I like Jacksonville.  I do not like Arizona.  I do not like the corpse of Kurt Warner.  I do not like that Boldin is still hobbled and Breaston is out, and although the Jaguars didn’t exactly prove they can stop a one-trick pony in giving up a bazillion yards and a score to Reggie Wayne last week, they still only gave up 14 points and I don’t think Warner is Peyton.  Granted there was some divisional familiarity there, but also consider Arizona is a west-coast team traveling east, and are generally just issuing poopy vibes all around.  Let the Matt Leinart watch begin!!

6) Oakland +3 over KANSAS CITY

Maybe I’m getting caught up in the Tom Cable mania, er, wait a minute, is there a Tom Cable mania?  Of course there is!  Cable was quoted as saying that this was the first time since he’d been with the Raiders that he really hurt after a loss.  That’s 3 years and a lot of losses for those keeping track at home.  The Raiders quotes, as well, were a little too lovey dovey to make me feel comfortable.  A lot of “oh we played really hard” and “we felt like we had it” and “we played a great game, we just didn’t win.”  A quick peek at Tom Cable’s illustrious coaching history shows an 11-35 record over 4 seasons at Idaho, followed by an unspectacular 2 year stint as UCLA’s offensive coordinator, followed by being an O-Line coach under the immediately thereafter fired Jim Mora Jr., and finally his Raiders career.  This has one simultaneously wondering how much time Al Davis really spends reviewing resumes and being thankful that Cable doesn’t take losses too seriously.  Anyway, I’m feeling the mania.  I’ve got the Raiders fever.  I’m drinking the Kool-Aid.  All of it.  Or maybe I’m just getting points against the Chiefs…

7) Minnesota -9.5 over DETROIT

I hate Detroit.  I hate the quarterback that will not be named.  Generic Adrian Peterson is ridiculous comment.  Peter King picked the Lions outright.  Those are the four thoughts that went through my head when this game came up.  No more, no less.

PHILADELPHIA +1 over New Orleans

Now, I’m knowingly taking the Eagles with Kevin Kolb.  Don’t ask me why – because I’m going to tell you anyway.  The Birds are tough at home, their defense is > Carolina’s defense, which didn’t actually play too poorly other than the fact they had to deal with Jake Delhomme handing the Eagles the ball every 5th play.  I’m not sure Kolb can light it up, but I think he can avoid 5 turnovers.  I think.  Also, I’m not sold on this new “Saints run D” after corralling the great Kevin “most boring name in the NFL award” Smith, so I think the Westbrook-McCoy combo could have some fun here.  The Eagles are just better, this is real football not fantasy, remember, and if McNabb were playing I would lock this at the minus 3.5 to 5.5 that I know it would be.

9) WASHINGTON -9.5 over St. Louis

I will do my very best not to watch one second of this game.

10) BUFFALO -4.5 over Tampa Bay

Almost went with a “ditto” in the comments here, but that would be rude to the long-suffering Bills fanbase.  They don’t deserve that.  They deserve me telling them that Trent Edwards didn’t look so bad on Monday night, that their defense didn’t look so bad Monday night, that Fred Jackson and the O-Line didn’t look so bad Monday night, and that Leodis McKelvin didn’t look so bad Monday – well, three out of four ain’t bad.  And bad is exactly what the Buccaneers are.  I predict Byron “The Pocket Amoeba” Leftwich makes up for lost time getting sacked last week by going down 3-4 times with a fumble to Aaron Schobel, Aaron Maybin, and any other Aaron’s on the Buffalo roster.

11) DENVER -3 over Cleveland

This is just an emotional pick over two bad teams.  I hope Denver wins so Cleveland fans can’t write about how crappy the Bengals are for losing to Denver, and basically for all other reasons centered around making the Bengals look better.  Rationally, I do think they’re a little better than Cleveland and I like McDaniels more than Mangini in the mini-Belichik sans any credentials battle.  Also, it’s tough to play in Denver.  Altitude and all.  Ugh, my heart is not in this game, let’s move on.

12) Baltimore +3 over SAN DIEGO

Finally!  A good game!  This one should be a real nasty affair, with two talented, physical teams lining up.  The injuries suffered along the O-Line for the Bolts make the difference, for me, as Sproles will have little room to run, and I don’t know how they pass protect Rivers vs. this defense after failing vs. the Raiders last week.  I know they’re on the road, but I like the Ravens offense to show again here as well.  Flacco really does look talented, and I like a surprise day out of the wideouts here, specifically Mark Clayton.  Those of you who enjoyed the 2 points from last week’s “breakout” player Teddy Ginn Jr., take note.  Ray Rice should do well on screens and dumpoffs as well.  I am a tad fearful of the whole sleeping giant thing with the Chargers, but they still have Norv Turner, and LaDanian “Charmin’ Soft” Tomlinson will be on the sidelines – though that may not be a bad thing.

13) Pittsburgh -3 over CHICAGO

Ok, you’ve waited for it.  Here it is.  The freaking Bears freaking suck.  OK?  They suck.  They were 9-7 last year, 7-9 the year before that.  The vaunted Bears D?  Sure maybe they’re good in fantasy because of Devin Hester, but they ranked 21st last season and 28th the season before that.  What the f am I missing?  They have a bunch of no-talent ass clowns on the O-Line and at WR, they have a good TE (Oooooh scary!), a QB who hates throwing to TE’s and instead reminds one of all of the BAD things about the QB who shall not be named as opposed to any of his Super Bowl winning tendencies, and a Cover-2 shell defense that is routinely shredded vs. the run.  Now Urlacher, Mr. Overrated himself, is hurt and we are all just noticing that Lovie Smith = Romeo Crennel after a year of SlimFast shakes.  He even wears the two earpiece headset!  That fake punt last week was just, I mean it was beyond belief!  In short, they do not threaten on offense.  They do not threaten on defense.  If Devin Hester doesn’t break 3 td’s game by himself they do not win against good teams.  The Steelers, even without Polamalu – who is NOT, btw, overrated – are a good team.  I could see them blowing this one out if only they ever did that, but it’s the Steelers, so it will be unnecessarily close towards the end and I will have to sweat this line out.  God I hate the Bears, I hate their media attention, they freaking suck.  Bring back Ditka.

14) NY Giants +3 over DALLAS

Inexplicable fact 1: Dallas, who led the NFL in sacks last year, could not sack the Pocket Amoeba one time last week.  Inexplicable fact 2: Eli Manning is the proud author of arguable the greatest play in Super Bowl history, despite not being able to throw a 12 yard in or a 15 yard out or a 20 yard anything.  Inexplicable fact 3: Tom Coughlin once gave goal line carries to Reuben Droughns – for almost a full season mind you, REUBEN DROUGHNS! – over Brandon Jacobs.  Inexplicable fact 4: Steve “not Steve Smith” Smith – he who was a number 3 wideout his senior year for the USC freaking Trojans – is a number 1 wideout in the NFL.  Inexplicable fact 5: Wade Phillips is still the Cowboys head coach.  I don’t know why I’ve listed these for you, I just find them interesting.  As far as the game, I still think the Giants are better than Dallas, so I’m taking these 3 points with glee as I root for punts off the new scoreboard and Tony Romo sandwiches between Umenyiora and Tuck.

15) TENNESSEE -6.5 over Houston

I actually like this Houston team, but that week 1 performance was terrifying.  I really don’t have any insight yet as to whether that was the Texan offense self-combusting or the Jet defense totally breaking out yet, nor does anyone, but needless to say this is one of the games I’m going to be watching intently this week.  Tennessee is one rough customer, so if Houston can answer some questions here that would go a long way.  That said, I think Tennessee, at home, angry after that Steeler game with a 10-day preparation window is a tall task for any team, let alone one with so many questions to answer.

16) New England -3 over NY JETS

Despite the fact that this is the last game listed, I almost locked this one up.  I don’t think the Pats offense was all that poor on Monday night, they just seemed to shoot themselves in the foot a few times, something that will happen with a quarterback starting his first game in a full year.  Granted the Pats D is no steel curtain, if you will, but like the masses, I have to believe Belichik can come up with something to confuse a rookie QB who wasn’t asked to do much beyond throw circle routes out of the backfield and hit guys in blown coverages last week.  If the Jets win this one certainly it would send a message.  In other news, I read somewhere this week – and I forget where I truly apologize to whoever wrote this – that Rex Ryan has just replaced Andy Reid as the NFL head coach you’d least like to see coming out of the bathroom as you were heading in after  he’d been in there for 10 minutes.  Priceless.  Kind of like her.

On with the games!

Lost-Key Locks

1) NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over Buffalo

Easily the number 1 lock of the week.  NWE beat Buffalo 20-10 and 13-0 last season without Brady, now the Bills are coming off a preseason where the first-team offense scored zero TD’s and they just fired their offensive coordinator.  Oh, and it’s Belichick and Brady vs. Jauron and Edwards.  Ouch, babe.

2) BALTIMORE -12.5 over Kansas City

I mean, fired offensive coordinator, horrific O-Line, road game, banged up Matt Cassel or Brody Croyle (!), and a 3-4 defense that doesn’t have 3-4 personnel?  You almost can’t blame Todd Haley for joking that since he has to open AT the most ferocious defense in the league that the NFL should delay opening week.  He was joking, right?

3) Dallas -5.5 over TAMPA BAY

This pick is entirely based upon the fact that Byron Leftwich is starting this game and DeMarcus Ware is starting this game.  This combination equals sacks, fumbles, and general chaos in the Bucs backfield where Cadillac Williams (!?) has apparently earned the starting RB role.  Not a good sign for D. Ward owners…  Another new offensive coordinator (within the last 10 days) has promised more deep balls.  Deep balls take time to develop.  Refer to sentence one of this paragraph.

Regular Games (No Particular Order)

1) Minnesota -3.5 over CLEVELAND

Huge step down in confidence from game 1 to game 2, but that’s just because of Favre.  I hate him and Mangini knows just how terrible he is these days.  Still, if you said it were Tarvaris Jackson at the helm you’d think this was going to be a Vikings cakewalk since 2 yard spike incompletions hurt a spread less than pick-and-six gunslings.  Memo to Mangidiot: nobody cares if its Quinn or DA, the rest of the team stinks.  Minny comfortably covers – unless Favre goes all Favre…wait a minute, and this game is no longer a throw away the key game.  Didn’t change a word, just copied and pasted it down here.

2) San Diego -9.5 over OAKLAND

What a ridiculous organization Oakland is.  Should we even expect to see DHB (Darrius Hayward-Bey) on the field?  Poor Darren McFadden.  The only reason this isn’t a lock game en route to a potential Charger Super Bowl run is because of McFadden potentially going nuts and Norv Turner in a road game.

3) Miami +4.5 over ATLANTA

I’ll take the points here just because I think the teams are about equal and I trust Sparano not to let any game this season get too out of control.  I could see a mini Ted Ginn breakout here, fantasy owners.
4) CAROLINA +2.5 over Philadelphia

Home dogs are always the Vegas smart money, and in this case it’s the defending NFC Champ as a home dog.  Eagles will miss Jim Johnson more than they may think (very sad story, btw), and I could see a nice game for the Panthers rushing attack and Steve Smith.  Something about this Eagles team just doesn’t feel right, though if you were looking to actually put money on games this weekend this would NOT be one I would pick.

5) CINCINNATI -5.0 over Denver

Full disclosure: I am a rabid Bengals fan.  That said, I loved this line when it opened 6 months ago at Denver -3.5.  I continued to love it all the way through Cincinnati -2.5 to the point where it was going to be a lock.  The problem was, it didn’t stop moving.  This line has moved, you got it, 8.5 points since it was opened!  That’s obscene!  Obscene to the point where Chad Millman wrote an article about it on ESPN.com and to the point where even though I really expect the Bengals to win here I am terrified of the line.

6) HOUSTON -4.0 over New York Jets

Don’t love Rex Ryan (he inherited that defense, nothing more), and don’t love rookie QB’s on the road in their first start.  Even if this rookie does look pretty good.  I also think Ryan’s schemes are somewhat complex, and it’s going to take these Jets a minute to get it all sorted out.  Plus they don’t have Ravens personnel.  I could see a blown coverage or two en route to a big Andre Johnson day.

7) Jacksonville +6.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

Do not bet this game.  Jax matches up well with Indianapolis, always has, but this seems like the perfect line.  Indy probably wins by a TD and covers, but I’ll take the points on a hunch.  Go MJD!

NEW ORLEANS -13.5 over Detroit

Love New Orleans in this game, along with the rest of the world.  This is overwhelmingly the most popular Eliminator pool pick over on ESPN, with more than 40% of contestants taking the Saints as their week 1 survivor.  I can’t blame them, I just think 13.5 points is a lot of points for a team with MegaTron picking up garbage TD’s against a crappy defense, so I can’t lock this one up.  Still, I’d put money here.

9) ARIZONA -6 over SAN FRANCISCO

Reason number 12235436356 why Vegas is smarter than you: they know that despite the fact that it’s very chic to say Arizona is going to collapse this season in Britney Spears 2003-esque fashion – and they very well might – that the Cardinals are still plenty potent on both sides of the ball to continue to lay smackdowns on the motivated yet talent-shy 9ers.  I was hoping for a fool’s minus 3 line here, but Vegas is on top of it, so I could theoretically see SF covering a la last seasons 29-24 Cardinal win in Glendale.  That said, this is one of the regular games I’d still put my money on.

10) Washington +6.5 over NY GIANTS

Too many points for a divisional showdown like this.  Eli stinks, and the Giants won’t be able to run on this defense until the second half.  As such, I see a close, ugly game where Washington covers.  Call it 17-13 or 20-17 Giants.

11) SEATTLE -7.5 over St. Louis

Alllllmost a lock.  Decided against it when I remembered a) Jim Mora is the head coach of the Seahawks, b) he’s an idiot, c) he is giving Edgerrin James the goal-line carries, d) a+b=c.  Plus, we know Spagnuolo is going to try to get heat on Hasselbeck, and if he does, well, Hasselbeck is going to get hurt.  As a proud multiple Hasselbeck owner, I hope this is not the case.

12) Chicago +4.5 over GREEN BAY

I hated making this pick, but the line just floated too high.  Like Vegas, like Football Outsiders, like ESPN, and like (gasp!) Peter King, I like the Packers – a lot.  But the fact is they are breaking in a new 3-4, even if it did look good in preseason, and these things usually have a few hiccups along the way.  I like Greg Olsen to score in this game at least once, and let’s say a Devin Hester return TD as well.  Pack, 24-23.