Well I hope you all enjoyed my fake picks last week! That’s right, I managed to go 0-5, and not just any 0-5, but 0-5 where I was picking favorites to cover in games they were ABSOLUTELY blown OUT. For example, I hopped on the Miami bandwagon prior to their 31-7 thrashing at the hands of Virginia Tech, and likewise felt the rising Cal Bears were all set to cover 5 points on the road against the Ducks…and were then promptly embarrassed 42-3 to the point where I’m not sure I can ever bet on Cal again. As a result, I don’t expect you to bet on my picks this week, but perhaps instead treat them as a sort of…viewing guide. Sponsored this week by (admittedly, Pro) cheerleaders in pillowfights, on to the picks:
Game of the Week:
Oklahoma -7 at Miami(FL)
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, as the saying goes, shame on me. Do I risk being fooled twice by a perhaps more glitz and glam than substance Hurricanes squad? I think not given Oklahoma, even without QB Sam Bradford, boasts 3 of Todd McShay’s top 32 draft prospects for the draft of 2010 in DT Gerald McCoy (number 3 overall), RT Trent Williams (8), and TE Jermaine Gresham (30). Personally, I feel Oklahoma is just a team itching to be overrated when Bradford comes back, if that makes any sense. They have a history of flopping on their faces in big games…in the postseason, however, not the regular season. I like OU here, which boasts a defense superior to the one that shut down QB Jacory Harris and the Hurricanes last weekend. SOONERS, -7.
Best of the Rest:
USC -4 at California
Another pretty nice showdown that lost a bit of luster over the last two weeks, this one with USC’s loss at Washington and Cal’s absolute collapse at Oregon. Cal will be home this time, not that that has bothered USC in the recent past, but QB Matt Barkley will be back in action for the Trojans following a mediocre performance in a 27-6 win over Washington State last week. I’m not sold on this USC team as anything reminiscent of their teams of the last decade, but I swore last week I would never bet Cal again after that joke of a performance. Take a peek at NFL safey Taylor Mays wearing number 2 for USC, as well as NFL prospects at RB Joe McKnight for USC and Jahvid Best for Cal. Also, this game is the home of Todd McShay’s “NFL Prospect Matchup of the Week” between USC potential first rounder LT Charles Brown vs. Cal mid-round prospect Tyson Alualu, should be a fun one to watch. USC, -4.
LSU +3.5 at Georgia
What does it say when the number 4 team in the country is getting 3.5 points in a matchup with the 18th ranked squad? Well, a few things. First, it means the number 18 team in the country isn’t half bad, in Georgia, but it also means there are some serious questions about LSU. The Bayou Bengals barely snuck by Mississippi State, yes Mississippi State, last week, and have generally looked unimpressive all season though they have yet to lose, whereas the Dawgs have somehow gone 3-1 against a very tough schedule while sporting a minus-9 turnover ratio. Does that mean that UGA is just waiting to break out if they can control their turnovers, or does it mean they are simply lucky and turnover prone? Little bit of both, I say, but Georgia’s ranking is probably closer to their true ability than LSU’s, and they’re at home. Keep an eye on LSU WR Brandon LaFell, the number 14 draft prospect in the country. Despite him, I like Georgia to pull off this “mini-upset” in my heart, but 3.5 points is a half point too many for me to take the Dawgs vs. the spread. Call it 30-28 Georgia, and therefore LSU, +3.5 is the “safe” pick.
Michigan +3.5 at Michigan State
What a sneaky wiseguy line this is! Opened at Blue minus-1.5, and has now shifted to the green side of the state at a whopping minus-3.5! Vegas insiders have been all over the Spartans on this one, but I say it’s gone too far. Even if Michigan loses this game it won’t be by more than a field goal. Plus, with QB Kirk Cousins at the helm, I have ZERO faith – seriously, start at the 9:15 mark, just trust me – in MSU driving with the ball late and close. Also, peep Michigan DE Brandon Graham, a pro prospect on an otherwise dismal defense. Call it another Crazy Tate finish for the WOLVERINES, +3.5.
Auburn +2.5 at Tennessee
Well, here’s another Lane Kiffin game. As I wrote about a few weeks ago, Kiffin for some reason opted to play not to win against the Gators in his big grudge match, but we will assume he has to play to win vs. another former SEC powerhouse turned powderpuff in the Auburn Tigers. Speaking of the Tigers, make sure you look closely because if you don’t you may confuse them with some sort of Pac-10 also-ran instead of an SEC team what with their no-huddle, spread offense and sieve-like d. I say all-world Safety Eric Berry, my top player in all the land and Todd McShay’s number 4 overall prospect, slows down that offense a bit, but I’m just not sure if Jonathan Crompton is capable of leading any team to victory against a Div 1 defense. Fortunately, Auburn’s defense may not be D-1 at this point so the hated Vols can ride freshman sensation RB Bryce Brown and stud RB Montario Hardesty to a close win and cover, TENNESSEE, -2.5.
