In this week’s New York Review of Books, Michael Kimmelman writes a rueful, if not quite disparaging, piece on all of the new ballparks going up around the country. While the article itself is an interesting read for those who may be concerned, within the piece Kimmelman relates an anecdote about the early New York Metropolitans. The Mets, as many are aware, were an expansion franchise in 1962 and proceeded to set records of futility throughout their first seven seasons before coming out of absolutely nowhere to become the Miracle Mets of ‘69, a team that won the World Series. On opening day of 1969, however, the Mets squared off against a new expansion team, the Montreal Expos, and in apparent continuation of form lost the ball game. A lone Mets fan – who later became known as “The Sign Man” over at Shea – held up a placard that, after the opening day loss, read “Wait ‘Til Next Year.” To fans of most other franchises, though perhaps still not to followers of the Mets, this may seem a bit hasty of a dismissal considering 99.38% of the schedule had yet to be played, but to fanatics who had endured through 7 of the most awful seasons in professional sports history, the dismal outlook was hardly a stretch. For fans of the Cincinnati Bengals, then, it would not have been unheard of – after 18 of 19 losing seasons and one playoff game where their star player blew out his knee on his very first throw – for a “Wait ‘Til Next Year” attitude to have been adopted following their inexplicable last second collapse vs. Denver in Week 1. A funny thing has happened since then, though. The Bengals, perhaps following the ‘69 Mets before them, have gone 6-1, become one of the more mentally tough teams in the league, and this week find themselves in the most important football game of a weekend which also includes a Pats-Colts showdown. Football, like baseball, is a funny game. Without further ado, then, let’s turn to a quick look at this week’s ‘icks, the Ben-Gals in honor of the showdown in Pittsburgh:
Thanks, girls. And now to a week 10 in the league where they play…
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FOR PAY.
Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 17-10)
1) New England +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Why not just go ahead and start with the sexiest game of the week, the seemingly annual – or even semi-annual – showdown between two of the league’s most recognizable faces (Tom Brady and Peyton Manning) and successful franchises. In general, we spend less time previewing the very best games, as we assume you’ve probably read a preview or two in your internet travels this week. Suffice to say, there has been adequate media coverage already. Just so you don’t think I’m throwing darts completely at random, however, I will quickly highlight the reasons everyone else has already stated for the Pats cover. A) The Colts injuries in the secondary are going to be a major problem against a rapidly returning to form Brady/Moss/Welker/et. al. Pats offense, B) The Colts have hardly looked like world beaters on offense in squeaking by the Texans and 49ers in the last two weeks, and other than putting up 31 on a shell-shocked Arizona team on Sunday Night a few weeks ago have generally not looked exceptional on offense all season, and C) I firmly believe that, despite the return of Donald Brown this week, the Colts lack the third playmaker on offense necessary to keep up with a Pats team that is going to score. Pats win here outright, though I’m sure Peyton will do something incredible to make it exciting until the end.
2) New Orleans -13.5 over ST. LOUIS
If you are a conspiracy theorist, feel free not to come along for the ride with me on this game. I honestly have no idea how the Saints are less than two touchdown favorites in a dome – any dome – against a team that has been outscored on AVERAGE this season 27.6 to 9.6. That’s right, the Rammies average line this season would be plus-18, that’s why I feel comfortable taking one of the best teams in football at the relative bargain of 13.5. I understand Steven Jackson may have a nice day, and I understand that the Saints have looked vulnerable versus power running attacks in the last two weeks, but the Rams simply aren’t the power running attack that Miami or Carolina is, and more importantly, they lack any other redeeming quality to keep them even remotely close should, say, New Orleans load 9 in the box.
3) MIAMI -10 over Tampa Bay
I thought about a few options here as you will soon see below, but in the end I had to take the desperate home team against a rookie quarterback. I understand somehow Josh Freeman and co. came back to beat Green Bay last week – I will never understand that game, ever – but I’m just not buying. Tampa being 30th in the NFL in Rushing YPG Allowed, and an amazing dead last in FO’s rankings, does not portend well for the marine smugglers. No creamsicles this week seals the deal, Miami in a painful rout.
Regular Games (Season Record: 54-46-1)
1) Baltimore -11 over CLEVELAND
We really don’t even need to talk about this game (desperate good team with mediocre record vs. lame duck divisional opponent in prime time), and I’m running a little late for an obligation as well, so let’s just leave you with a fun image on this one:
2) MINNESOTA -16.5 over Detroit
Normally this would be the time for us to post the Flow’s WTE divisional standings, but frankly we’re so upset with the success of the WTED teams against the spread recently that we are boycotting the posting of standings until things return to normal, hopefully after this week. In other news, though it won’t be an issue here, do recall our warning our a few weeks ago regarding the potential frailty of this Viking team. If they could just push the pause button right now and play the playoffs and Super Bowl as currently made up, I’d take them for a true SB favorite. In the real world, however, there are 8 games of regular season to go before they get to that point and the injuries are already starting to mount up…
3) NY JETS -7 over Jacksonville
I will never forgive the Jacksonville Jaguars for giving up 15 points in the last 2:32 to the Kansas City freaking Chiefs to ruin their covering of the 6.5 spread and as a result 3 of my various parlays last weekend. They even gave up a 54-yard bomb to Chris F’ing Chambers up 18 with 2:32 to go!!!! To be clear, this is not a buy on the Revolting Blob and the Jets, this is a hard sell on the Pussycats.
4) Denver -3.5 at WASHINGTON
I understand that the Indigenous People’s defense is excellent and that they are at home, what I don’t understand is all of the hullabaloo about them being underrated. Look, people, this team has 2 wins and they are over St. Louis and Tampa Bay. They’ve already lost to Detroit and Kansas City – at home! – this season, and while Captain Neckbeard and Co. are certainly no world beaters – you know our views on the subject – the Broncos defense is pretty good, and Brandon Marshall and the rest of the offense are plenty good enough to win this game 17-10. Let’s get a gratuitous shot of Sherman in here for old times sake and just in case some of you were still thinking of going Skins:
Oh, and here he is coaching from our nation’s capital:
Whoa! Is that a human?
5) TENNESSEE -7 over Buffalo
Another simple one as we fly through here: Chris Johnson + Vince Young + Bills Rush “D” = Uh-Oh, Buffalo. If you want more to think about on this game try this very thought-provoking comparison:
6) Atlanta -1.5 over CAROLINA
Atlanta’s head coach gets in fights to protect his team. That’s all I have on that, I’m not really sure if I support that or not. As far as the rest of the game, I do like what Carolina is starting to do in terms of getting their running game going. Sadly, as long as Forrest Delhomme is still their starting quarterback neither I nor Steve “No Longer the Real Steve Smith” Smith can pick the Panthers to win a game, and 1.5 isn’t exactly enough to “take the points” here.
7) OAKLAND -2 over Kansas City
The return of Fatso! It has been so lonely over here in the B Flow offices without him involved, and frankly we’re so ecstatic to see him back we’ve gone ahead and taken the Raiders here in the worst game of 2009. Right now, Fatso has a QB rating lower than his completion percentage, which may not be particularly noteworthy except for the fact that his completion percentage checks in at a cool 48.4%. With a current rating of 48.3, it will certainly be interesting to follow this numbers competition throughout the rest of the season. Other fun games to play are Sacks+Interceptions vs. Completions, Sacks+Interceptions Season vs. QB Rating Season, Incompletions Single Game vs. Yards Passing, and finally, YPA Passing vs. YPC Rushing, including sacks.
ARIZONA -8 over Seattle
If you read the Flow’s musings from earlier this week and also linked earlier in this article you know that the Blue/Neon Men Group is dead to us. You would also know, from those musings, that Peter King thinks the Cardinals are “still dangerous.”
That’s right, NFL-mannn, THEY ARE DANGEROUS! (BITE!)
9) SAN DIEGO -1 over Philadelphia
Moving right along now we find a pretty good one in the 4:15 time slot between the Bolts and Birds. According to Football Outsiders statistics the Eagles are the 2nd most schizophrenic team in the league, being only slightly more predictable than the Tennessee Flaming Chris Johnsons. I suppose that is what happens when you lose to Fatso but also beat other NFL teams. I’m not particularly comfortable with this pick either way, but like last week, I trust the arm of Philip Rivers to come down the field late if necessary more than I do that of the “Spikemaster Flex,” Donovan McNabb. Plus, we are one Chargers win away here from a) Peter King announcing the Chargers are dangerous, b) Chargers Super Bowl talk resurrecting followed by a missing persons notice being sent out for LaDanian Tomlinson so that CBS can fill quotas of sadfaced sideline shots of “injured” players, and c) the Michael Vick bandwagon potentially forming. Mike Tanier also points out that this is the widely anticipated showdown between two of the game’s elite clock management gurus, Mr. Norv “Uhhh” Turner and the Honorable Andy “Walrus” Reid. Bill Simmons goes so far as to suggest an amusing split screen for the two of them as the clock winds down in each half. This should be fun.
10) GREEN BAY +3 over Dallas
OK, Packers, I’m giving you one more shot. You’re at home. You’re a live dog. You’re facing a Cowboys team that I’m not convinced is actually as good as they seem to be, and probably are due for a loss somewhere along the line. If you go back to that Mike Tanier link above you will note the Packers, despite having an excellent offense and defense, lead the league in sacks allowed and penalties, are terrible on all coverage units, and have been poor on 4th down. In general, that’s not how you win football games, though if they can curtail those issues for just this week (and maybe longer!) they’re certainly good enough elsewhere to win here. I’m not completely selling Green Bay Packers: playoff team yet.
11) Cincinnati +7 over PITTSBURGH
And we’ve come to this. We were all set to preview this game for everyone, but then saw that it had already been played out on Madden over on ESPN and the Steelers won 34-24. Of course, this was deeply saddening to the B Flow, but as we gave the box score a melancholy click something caught our eye: Jerome Simpson, 1 catch, 5 yards, 1 TD. Jerome Simpson? This Jerome Simpson? This cannot be! Because all Bengals fans know that that Jerome Simpson isn’t even dressing for this week’s game, rather he and his 2nd round draft status spot have been taken by a gentleman by the name of Maurice Purify of Practice Squad. Further, Mr. Roethlisberger is stated to have 390 (!!) yards passing. Really? Look, in all seriousness, we understand the Bengals are a little banged up right now, but 7 points? A full touchdown for a team that is 6-2 and has looked pretty damned good doing it the last two weeks? And for all those people who are so concerned that Chris Henry’s injury is really going to hurt the Bengals offense, please do consider the fact that Henry had more than 2 catches or 36 yards receiving one time this season, and that was the same game, 3 for 92 vs. Baltimore the first time. He had all of 2 touchdowns. I recognize that he adds a deep threat to the Bengals offense, but I just don’t see it being that big of a deal. Carson loves to throw to Chad deep, and even without Jerome – who’s literal only skill at this point is running straight down the field and making acrobatic deep catches – Purify, Caldwell, Coles, and Ocho are plenty of talent out wide. As warned earlier in the week, the Bengals are a physical group on both sides of the ball and will not be intimidated by Pittsburgh’s own physicality. The two teams rank 1 and 2 in the standard NFL rushing yards allowed per game statistic, and with the Steelers’ addition of Rashard Mendenhall also feature two of the better bruising backs in the league. While we’re willing to perhaps concede that Ben Roethlisberger has a few more weapons to throw to, Cincinnati has the superior corners and will force “Ben” to win the game with Mike Wallace and Heath Miller rather than Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward behind a shaky O-Line. He almost did it the first game, but fell short after dominating 3 quarters to a Carson-led Cardiac Cat special. When we started looking at this game this week we felt the Steelers were the better team, and indeed perhaps the very best in the league. There’s no doubt they have played well on this 5-game winning streak, but the most physical team they played on that streak – the only one comparable from a physicality only standpoint to the Bengals – was the Minnesota Vikings, and the Vikings probably should have won that game. Carson Palmer will not gift games the way Brett Favre did that one, so I’m not convinced we’re looking at a runaway. These teams know each other well, and despite being 12-2 against the rest of the division at home with Mike Tomlin at the helm, Pittsburgh is only 3-3 against Marvin Lewis in that building. Hard to believe as it is, it was only 4 years ago when Cincinnati stormed into Pittsburgh and wrested the 2005 AFC North title from the Steelers. Can they do it again? Maybe, but we’re pretty sure whichever way it goes it will be by less than 7…
