A lot of people made a lot of money last week. This is Vegas’ week to strike back. A quick peek over at Chad Millman’s blog – a must read if you are a casual bettor – tells you that Vegas is unhappy with how much money is being made calling favorites to cover this season, so now they’re going to make you pay for it. And take a look at these lines, you can tell. I just ran through the whole thing and let’s be honest, there aren’t a lot of gimmies out there this week. San Fran should smoke St. Louis even without Gore, right? No problem. Well, what if they had to cover 9.5? Exactly. This week’s ‘ick is Hot Clicks’ hottest click in some time, so without further ado, let’s get to the picks and keep our momentum rolling!!!! (Yes, there will be more snaps of Esti interspersed throughout…) Turn up your Primetime music, pop open your beer, because the weather outside…is starting to get a little colder. The leaves in the trees…are starting to change color. The NFL is starting to take shape, so it’s time for a week 4, a week 4 in the league…where they play…
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FOR PAY.
Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 6-3)
1) Green Bay +3 over MINNESOTA
It was a big week last week for the B Flow’s picks, and it would have been a great week with a 3-0 LKL section if not for Jake Delhomme’s poopiness, but this week the games get tougher. We’ll start here in the QB-who-shall-not-be-named-Bowl I, between two sexy contenders in the NFC: the Pack, and the Vikes. Unfortunately, Warren Sapp took Green Bay, but fortunately I’ve got Phil Simms on the other side. Seriously, hold on with this pick. Just take the time to click that link. Starting about the 4 minute mark those guys are just incoherent!! A select gem: “Dallas’ offense…[indecipherable grunting and motioning]…they just…[more of the same]…a little…almost a turnover here…[John Madden-esque noises]…[BOOM tough actin' Tinactin]…they’re a little bit out there right now” -Warren Sapp (note, Dallas has the number 3 offense in the NFL). Anyway, back to the game. Look, Minnesota is going to run the ball on Green Bay – everyone knows it. But I also think Green Bay knows full well what QBWSNBN can and can’t do at this point, and they are going to put 8-9 guys in the box and say hey, 4, beat us. I also like Aaron Rodgers’ ability to bring Green Bay back against the Vikes’ secondary more than the reverse situation. We’ve got strength vs. weakness on both sides of the ball here, I take the passing game of GB to score more points than AP. Plus you know McCarthy REALLY wants this, and you’re telling me he can’t run laps around this guy? Give me the points! Give me the Packers!!
2) New York Giants -8.5 at KANSAS CITY
I knowwww this is the Giants 2nd road game in a row. I knowwwww that I’m laying the wood here with 8.5 points to a home dog. I knowwwww KC’s D can play tough, especially at home. But let’s call a spade a spade. The New York Giants are an elite, elite football unit. The Kansas City Chiefs lost to Fatso. Throw away the points, and the key.
3) Cincinnati -6 at CLEVELAND
I can’t believe I’m doing it, but I’m doing it! F it! If the Bengals don’t cover this spread I’ll be worried about a lot more than this column which nobody reads other than myself. Look, this is as much a Browns pick as it is a Bengals pick, and the Bengals don’t have to dominate the game to win by a touchdown. In all honesty, I can’t even envision a scenario where I’m sitting at Phebe’s around 230pm on Sunday, it’s halftime, and I’m comfortably ahead, say, 21-3. Can’t even envision it. This is what it’s like to be a Bengals fan, and why I hated making this call. That said, if last week proved ANYTHING, it was that this MIGHT be a new Bengals. Plus the Browns have this guy. Sometimes you just have to live a little, you can’t worry about the jellyfish, and rubbin’s racin’. Anyone who just followed that sequence deserves a little pat on the back.
Regular Games (Season Record: 21-17 after last week’s 10-3! WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!)
1) HOUSTON -8.5 over Oakland
Ah, Fatso. Let’s take a trip to your Wiki page, shall we? HA! Look at his picture on his freaking wikipedia page!!! Look at it!!! Do you think he’s just thrown his 10th straight incompletion on 3rd down, or did McDonalds just tell him they were out of cheeseburgers? This happened once, in London, by the way. McDonalds ran out of cheeseburgers I sh*t you not. Jamie and I sat down in the middle of Harold Square or whatever square and protested. We were escorted away. Seriously though, do we even need to read the rest of the page or discuss this game any further? Oh, fiiine. If Darren McFadden can’t bust out against this defense, he’s never going to bust out. I would have locked the Raiders for a late cover here, but the problem is the quarterback of the trailing team generally throws to earn that late cover…and well, you know who’s quarterbacking Oakland’s merry crewe…
2) Tennessee -3 over JACKSONVILLE
I’m nervous about this game for a couple reasons. First, I wrote all week about how Tennessee is overrated, and I think they are, hard as that is to accomplish at 0-3. Seriously though, would we be talking this much about how good Tennessee was if they hadn’t lost all three of their games? Would we be talking about “the greatest 1-2 team ever” if they had beaten, say, the freaking Texans? Second, as I’ve mentioned previously, Jacksonville plays well against teams it knows. Maybe it takes Jack Del Rio a couple of games a year to pull a game plan together, I don’t know. Still, I’m going Tennessee because a) it’s a cop out, b) Jacksonville’s only strength is MJD and the one thing Tennessee still does well is stop the run, and c) the game is in Jacksonville, where the depression of playing in a home stadium of about 15 people last had the effect of leading the Jaguars to an annihilation at the hands of the Cardinals. Let’s give the ol’ Flaming Thumbtacks a shot to prove they really are “THE GREATEST 0-3 TEAM OF ALL TIME!”
3) Baltimore +1.5 at NEW ENGLAND
This is a phenomenal football game, and I would never bet it. The number 2 and 4 teams in my not-so-clever O-Rankings, there is every opportunity that this game really is the proverbial “AFC Title Game Preview.” I don’t need to preview this for gambling, or at all, you just need to watch it. Fun tidbit to remember that is oft forgotten now since the G-Men ended the Pats perfect season in the Super Bowl – remember how sick this game was? Why Ravens here, then? Because they’re the best team I’ve seen this year.
4) CHICAGO -10 over Detroit
Not gonna talk about the Bears. Detroit, I know they got a win, but 1 win in 20 games in this league is unacceptable. Completely unacceptable. No excuses. You’re telling me you’re a football team, you’re in this league, and you go out, and you lose 19 of 20? Not gonna happen. God I love the Mora family.
5) WASHINGTON -7.5 over Florida Marl- er Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Johnson and his 38 Madden rating, thanks Simmons, vs. the Native Americans? Crap there is puke spilling out the corners of my mouth, let’s move on.
6) INDIANAPOLIS -10 over Seattle
Didn’t I intro this piece with something about favorites costing a lot more this week so that Vegas could play suckers who wanted to keep riding Vegas? Well f’em I say, f’em!!! (Assume Harold Lederman voice) (Yes, youtube him immediately, he’s HBO’s “official scorer” for boxing) OK, JIM! I GOTTA TELL YOU SOMETHIN, THESE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ARE LOOKING REALLLLLL GOOD, PEYTON MANNING, HE COMES IN, HE THROWS THE BALL DOWNFIELD, SIDEWAYS, LEFT, RIGHT, ALL OVER THE PLACE, AND THIS SENECA WALLACE, HE CAN’T THROW AT ALL! I’VE GOT THIS QUARTER SCORED INDIANAPOLIS 14, SEATTLE 0, JUST LIKE THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS, AND I GOTTA TELL YOU SOMETHIN JIM, IT DOESN’T LOOK LIKE SEATTLE CAN COME BACK IN THIS ONE, THEY’VE GOT NO PUNCH, THEY’VE GOT NO NOTHING, BUT OHHH MAN WE’VE GOT A GAME DOWN HERE JIM! Uhm, thanks Harold.
7) NEW ORLEANS -7 over NY Jets
That’s right, I’m taking team sexy NFC over team sexy AFC, giving the 7. For those of you who have been following all week – i.e. nobody – you could probably guess that I’m not quite as high on these Jets as most, and I do believe in these Saints. Couple reasons. First, the Jets and Rex Ryan win by blitzing, but not only does Brees kill the blitz, but the Saints short passing game usually is so fast that it doesn’t give the blitz time to get to the quarterback anyway! Second, and along these lines, did you know that for all of these accolades the Jets are getting about pressuring the QB, they actually only have 2 sacks this season? Yep. Do I feel good about 7 points? No, that’s a lot, but like I said, Vegas came to play this week. Bottom line is Mark “I’m not Matt Leinart, don’t look at my picture just watch the game tape” Sanchez is still a rookie in his first loud, dome game vs. an opponent that now has 3 weeks of film on him, including last week’s solid effort by the (gasp!) Titans. The Jets run game at this point has not looked strong enough to really take advantage of the Saints D, and while Darrelle Revis may be one hell of a corner, Drew “2nd Coming” Brees isn’t one to zero in on one WR, so the Jets are going to have to figure out how to cover everybody. Either way, the somebody is emerging from this game with a pretty strong statement to the league about legitimacy.
Buffalo PK at MIAMI
I would have locked the sh*t out of Miami if they had an NFL quarterback healthy and on the roster. Tyler “Bobby once had 51 saves for the White Sox” Thigpen does not count, nor does Chad Henne “pasta,” or Pat “black or” White. Wow, I’m really forcing it there. Probably because this is a boring game between two boring teams that doesn’t matter. (Slowly backing away with hands up and grimace on face from rabid pack of angry Bills fans… Hey, I picked you all right?)
9) St. Louis +9.5 at SAN FRANCISCO
Are the Rams really so epically bad that they are giving almost 10 points to Shaun Hill and Glen Coffee? Really? Kyle Boller even has been showing a pulse lately! And don’t even start with the “oh they’ll miss Laurent Robinson this week.” Really, Laurent Robinson, really? Give me the points, it’s the NFC West, next.
10) DENVER +3 over Dallas
Refer to my opening pick for Warren Sapp’s analysis, or keep watching the video and check out Phil Simms’ insight. He actually says he is “too scared” to pick the Broncos. Scared of what, Phil? Seriously? Of Showtime’s subscriber base? Trust me, they’re just members for the porn and Californication. If you read my “what we learned” for this week you know how I think this goes, so I have to pick Denver just to see it really happen. I am giddy at the potential national media articles a Denver win here would bring. Plus I want to show I have more cojones than Phil Simms.
11) San Diego +6 at PITTSBURGH
Ugh, I already hate this pick. This is a really good game, and I’m glad it’s going to get national coverage on Sunday night. We have two very real football teams, one of which is already really needing a win in Pittsburgh, and the other of which may be really needing one if Denver goes to 4-0. I do have a hard time seeing San Diego winning this game outright, but as I’ve alluded to before, the Steelers have a tendency of making everything close. Added in here is the likelihood of the late cover thanks to the Chargers’ outrageously good screen/dumpoffs and deep passing game. I would say the Steelers should get all over Rivers through a banged up Bolts line, but they didn’t really get to Carson Palmer through a Bengals beat up line, so I’m not sure that’s a lock here either. No Polamalu tips the scales, for me, as I don’t think this Steelers outfit is good enough to give 6 points to another good team – first half in Cincinnati be damned.
Good slate of games this week, and finally, with apologies to Esti, just because I can I’m going to give everyone a flashback to week 1’s ‘ick, who apparently enjoys rollerblading and horseback riding (it shows), as a parting gift. ENJOY!!!!
