NFL Picks and ‘icks Week 5

Hello again, allow me to re-introduce myself.  This week has been a sadly slow week for the B Flow, with nary an NFL Lesson or College Football Pick or Coed to be found on our humble site.  I promise it was not due to my college selections going a remarkable 0-5, nor my NFL picks also suffering a less than impressive fate.  Nay, I was bit by a bug related to the H1N1, only of the standard human variety.  Fortunately, this problem is receding a bit more quickly than my hairline, so I should be good to go for Phebe’s on Sunday…and Picks and ‘icks right now!!! (No, Taco Bell, I don’t want a “backjack taco” or whatever that is, please stop showing the commercial)  Sorry, anyway, this week’s ‘ick is a not so long but not so short time crush Malin Ackerman.  Check her out, she’s, she’s ok.  If you’re the creepy type, you could also always google her.  No, I won’t link to that.  Anyway, as predicted, my selections last week did not go well.  I was not comfortable with many lines, and Vegas had their vengeance.  Very well.  This week, I strike back!  I like a lot of these lines, and will be putting my money where my mouth is once again this week, so let’s get to it!  It’s a week 5, people, a week 5 where we begin to start sorting out the contenders (Baltimore, what?) from the pretenders (Bengals? Who said that?), the elite (Colts?) from the plebian (sigh, Tennessee), and the fun (Texans) from the boring (Arizona).  It is a week 5 in the league…

where they play…

…

FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 7-5)

1) Atlanta +2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO

So a few things happened last week in the LKL section that I should touch on before getting to this weeks picks.  First, I had my first losing week.  I apologize.  It shan’t happen again.  Second, I was victimized by the vengeance of the QBWSHNB, something I didn’t know possible, during the best performance I’ve seen the Norsemen put on in quite some time.  Finally, I bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to give points.  This will not happen again.  Sadly there were no lessons to review this week, hopefully you all did the assignments on your own and learned something from last Sunday’s experience, but believe me, this will be a good week for the BFlow.  Starting right here.  (Channeling inner-Mark Schlereth): The Atlanta Falcons are a better football team than the San Francisco 49ers.  They’ve got better football players, and a better football coach.  As long as this game is being played on a football field (check), this football game will be won by the better football team.  Falcons will win this outright.  Write that down.  Generic Coffee related joke.

2) Pittsburgh -10.5 over DETROIT

Look the Lions aren’t embarrassing.  I had another sentence planned here, but I just re-read that first one.  Doesn’t that just say it all?  When the best thing you can say about a team is that they are not embarrassing, well, they’ve got a long way to go before I take them to cover ANY spread against a hungry Steeler team not accustomed to looking up at TWO teams in their division.  Frankly, this line jumped out from the second I saw it late last Sunday (yes, I do check the lines before the calendar page even goes to Monday) and Stafford not being able combined with Kevin Smith’s lingering shoulder soreness only makes me feel more confident.  I’m not sure I even had to throw away the key on this one, never had it made in the first place.

3) New England -3 over DENVER

There were a bevy of options available this week, so I’m not sure how I ended up with three road teams, but there you have it.  Please refer back to my NFL Lessons from last week where I announced how Denver’s season would play out, this is the game where they lose close to the mighty Patriots eliciting further swooning from the fickle media elite.  After having viewed last week’s action, however, I am more convinced than ever that New England is about to explode and Denver is an OK team masquerading as a pretty good one.  I see the Pats winning pretty comfortably here.  Speaking of comfortable, these picks have been a little too comfortable – let’s spice it up a little here in the regular games!

Regular Games (Season Record: 26-23)

1) NY GIANTS -15 over Oakland

Anytime you’re looking for a little liveliness in an NFL column just go ahead and turn to Fatso.  Ahhh, Fatso.  You know things aren’t looking up in your NFL career if even the Wall Street Journal is noting that you may be…”flawed”…and that is the nicest thing people have said about you in weeks.  Let’s go on a mini-tangent here.  Really, WSJ, “flawed?”  We’re talking about a guy who is literally completing LESS THAN 40% OF HIS PASSES (!?!?!?!?!?! good god that is amazing, FO does a nice recap) and the word we come up with is…”flawed?”  Maybe you aren’t ready for this whole sports section thing just yet, Rupert; let the WSJ be the WSJ and let’s get on with it.  Actually, on second thought, I have a better picks record than all three of their “Picks Experts,” and yes, I know one of them is a coin, so maybe they should stick around to make me look better.  And I mean I totally have a better personality…  Oh yea, this game.  Ummm…  You know what would be fun?  What do you think the line would be if we KNEW Carr were going to start?  What?  That’s what Vegas thinks this line is?  It’s really going up to like minus 24 when Eli starts?  Sigh…  In happier news, it does look like “Fatso” monikers are catching on (scroll to OAK preview) for our beloved number 2 in black!  Augustus Gloop, you say?  Yes!

2) PHILADELPHIA -15.5 over Tampa Bay

CALLING AWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLLLLL CAPTAINS!!!!!!!!!!  What the hell just happened?  Anyway, doesn’t the Bucs whole pirate ship/pirate/skull thing just remind you of Captain Morgan’s rum?  It does for me, and I bet B Flow pal Raheem Morris (PLEASE peruse that wikipedia page again – it is beyond priceless) wishes he had that “40-shot bottle” every time he watches his offense trot onto the field.  Or, for that matter, his defense.  Tampa fans, as well, are probably being forced into slightly more libatious tailgates this season.  Your 2009 Tampa Bay Bucs, CALLING AAWWWWWWWWWWWLLLLL CAPTAINS!!!!!!

3) Minnesota -10 over ST. LOUIS

As we were trolling along the dregs of the league here the Flow bumped into the Rams, so we’ll do their game next.  Did you know that over the past 3 seasons the Rams have a worse record than the Lions?  Seriously, they do!  5-32 to 8-28.  (Can I now get an ESPN special about how great this sentence was “for the city of Detroit, with alll it’s going through with the economy?”  Thanks.  What?  No, no I don’t want the key to the city.  Detroit?  God, no.)  I don’t think I’ve been appreciating just how bad this Rams team has been this season, tied for 27th in offense, 22nd in defense, and lacking any sort of professional wide receiver, quarterback, or secondary player currently, they have a long way to go.  I understand this could be a bit of a letdown game for Minnesota, but the only way St. Louis can surprise teams is by unleashing Steven “I swear I’m still relevant in fantasy” Jackson on people, and, well, you can’t unleash RB’s on Minnesota.  Especially since the Williams gentlemen are apparently allowed to take steroids without suspension.

4) Cleveland +6 over BUFFALO

Peter King noted that this week’s 1pm slate of games may be the worst in NFL history outside of the Bengals-Ravens showdown.  I believe he is correct.  This is exhibit A.  I dare you to find a single non-Bills or Browns – scratch that – a single non-Bills fan in the United States who cares about the outcome of this game.  When Mohammed Massaquoi is the headline player, well, next.

5) Houston +5.5 over ARIZONA

Doesn’t this game smell of an overrated “oh, they’re coming off a bye” game?  With an extra sweetener of “oh, they’re the NFC Champs and they’ve been sluggish and they’re coming off of a bye at home raring to go?”  Admit it, that statement just fired you up to take the Cardinals.  It made total sense, didn’t it?  Well, I’m here to tell you that Arizona is 1-2, 0-2 at home, is giving up 360 yards/game, and is trying to decide between Tim Hightower and a guy named Beanie as their starting RB.  Kurt Warner looks old.  Real old, and Mario Williams is generally not the cure to bad tackle play.  I’m not sure Houston wins this game, but I like their chances to continue putting up points to make it close throughout.

6) SEATTLE -1 over Jacksonville

I almost locked this one.  I know, you’re shocked, but bear with me.  I like the Green Men Group with Hasselbeck in charge, and he will be again in this one.  You’ll also recall my theory that Jacksonville plays especially well against teams in their division, but not so well outside the division.  Well, I’m testing that theory here as they travel all the way across the country to one of the loudest places in the league.  Further, these neon seabirds are quite feisty on their own turf, especially against east-coast foes – just ask the Jets last season!  Granted there don’t look to be any weather concerns on Sunday, but just color me a little skeptical on the whole Jaguars marching on the road for victories at this point.  Remember, after week 2 we were talking about Jacksonville being one of the worst teams in the league.  And really, now that Seattle has delineated what is and what is not acceptable in the kicking game, sky’s the limit!

7) Indianapolis -3.5 over TENNESSEE

Another one I almost locked.  Probably should have.  Let’s see if Jeff Fisher has any funny YouTube moments, shall we?  Eh, not much – this one is pretty amusing though.  To be serious, for a second, this Tennessee team is who I thought they were.  Perhaps not who Peter King thought they were, but who I thought they were.  Score one for the B-Flow!!!  Oh, wait, I was too scared to pick against them last week.    Interesting things are happening here, though, as we may see a team be generally known as the “best 0-3 team ever,” only to have me call them “most overrated 0-3 team ever,” only to now fall to 0-5, and officially EARN the title of best 0-5 team ever!  Now that is exciting!  There aren’t many candidates for “best 0-5 team ever,” probably because not many teams even go 0-5, but I’d go ahead and say these Titans are probably one of the better teams in that bunch.  Don’t think that was so much a backhanded complement as it was a turn-your-back, walk 10 paces a way, raise the back of your hand and scoff complement, but there it is.

CAROLINA -4 over Washington

Two repugnant groups, though few football teams are as universally reviled as this year’s Washington Native Americans.  Could there be a more brutal team to watch – ever?  It’s between them and those Rodney Hampton era Giants teams with the just good enough to be annoying defense, and the 2 yard run, 2 yard run, incomplete pass offense to rival even the very best play sequences from former “offensive wizard” Jim Zorn.  Check out that wink, though.  He’s still a wizard of winks.  Give the guy an extension!  What did I just say?  No, no, don’t, please don’t.  Damned winks.  All seductive and persuasive…

9) KANSAS CITY +7.5 over Dallas

I’m taking the home dog here, but I’m not sure why.  I looked at this game initially at 8.5 and was thinking Chiefs, but now at 7.5 I’m feeling pretty queasy about betting on a team with this guy as the head coach.  Lighten up, Todd!  You’re an NFL head coach!  You were the offensive coordinator on the NFC CHAMPION ARIZONA CARDINALS last season!  Rumors out of Buckley are suggesting that Tony Romo might be on the verge of losing his job, but considering I can’t name the Cowboys backup quarterback and that Jason Whitten makes all opponents of Romo within the organization disappear I’m not sure that’s going to happen.  According to KC Joyner Romo has the toughest group of pass defenses left in the NFL this season, so after this week he’s not going to have sparkling stats to fall back on, but something still tells me he’ll do enough to get Dallas to 8-8 or so.  Holy god I just looked it up, JON KITNA is the Cowboys backup quarterback.  Yes, yes, yes, let’s launch this right now I need more Jon Kitna – NFL quarterback (not on my team) please!

10) NY Jets -1.5 over MIAMI

I’m getting tired, so I’m not giving this game as much attention as I probably should. It will probably be a good game, probably low scoring, and almost certainly not entertaining until the last 10 minutes, assuming Miami can keep it close for that long.  Rex Ryan has a history of smushing the wildcat, and with Chad Henne “pasta” at “normal QB,” Tony “bespectacled Soprano” Sparano has little choice but to run wildcat early and often.  “al Dente,” as we will now call Mr. Henne, has pretty much only one standout tidbit on his wiki page, namely, that he was the first – and remains only – quarterback in the history of the University of Michigan to go 0-4 vs. Ohio State.  Bravo, al Dente, try not to get OVERCOOKED against the Jets Monday Night.  I wanted to type LOL there so badly.  I’ve got no gas in the tank.  Time to check out our ‘ick one more time, pump a Primetime song (I always prefer #8, though #1 is SUPREMELY underrated.  If someone can teach me how to link to my iTunes I would allow you all to listen to these songs yourself, because no man football fan is complete without the mp3’s of the old school ESPN NFL Primetime music.  Seriously.) and get ready for the game of the week!!!!!!!!  (Hint: A certain team from a certain midwestern city is involved.  No, not the Bears dammit.)

11) Cincinnati +8.5 over BALTIMORE

Ok, ladies, here we go.  It is, in the words of quite a few scribes – ha, totally fooled you with that random dude.  Seriously, though, PK, Donnie Banks, of course Pete “Go Bengals” Prisco, et al have all dubbed this a “showdown” – a good, old-fashioned SHOWDOWN this week in Baltimore for AFC North early-season supremacy.  Before we go all purple here, let’s remember a few things: 1) Carson Palmer is 6-3 vs. the Ravens in his career, 2) Ravens starting LT Jared Gaither is hurt and will likely not play, forcing rookie Michael Oher to man LT this week for Baltimore, and 3) Bengals DE Antwan Odom put on 30 lbs. of muscle in the offseason.  I swear, he did.  Now, the Bengals have the look of frauds.  They’re offense is a pitiful 21st in yards, and the defense is a – dare I say – overrated 17th!  (Baltimore, btw, is 3rd and 8th respectively)  It took them nearly 75 full minutes to dispatch the woeful Browns last week (and Rob Ryan still doesn’t think they did so), a team the Ravens dismissed on the same field these teams will see on Sunday by a score of 34-3.  And it wasn’t even that close.  The Ravens are angry.  They’re coming off a tough road loss to the Pats, a game they very realistically could have won had Mark Clayton simply held onto the ball on 4th down.  Ray Lewis is mad.  Everything is primed for a Ravens statement win at home.  But hold on a second.  Bengals fans are seeing things they’ve never seen before.  A late comeback win against Pittsburgh?  What?  A strong performance on the road after a demoralizing defeat?  Huh?  A defense that dug in during Overtime to hold on?  What is this?  Multiple 4th down conversions?  With apologies to some f’ing moron named Adam Duerson, this Bengals team is mentally tough.  When backed into a corner, something they always seem to do to themselves, this football team FIGHTS BACK.  So let’s take a look at it again, from the Bengals perspective.  They’ve got a shutdown corner in Leon Hall who can take out Derrick Mason, and they’ve got a young, athletic, hard-hitting LB crew that should be able to contain Todd Heap and underneath receivers better than in years past.  Their safeties, pathetic as they are, are built to win games against teams that try to hammer the Bengals on the ground, and the Ravens will indeed try to do that.  Carson has always played relatively well against Baltimore, and Chad is not intimidated by the Baltimore coverages.  There are weapons, and there is Ced.  Bernard Scott is getting more involved.  The O-Line is gelling even without this piece of garbage.  (Turn up the music).  Look, I KNOOWWW this team doesn’t have the numbers (god, I can’t believe I am saying this…).  I KNOOWWWW this team doesn’t have the deep passing game of 2005.  I KNOWWWW that the offensive line is a bunch of retreads, where someone named Evan Mathes and someone named Kyle Cook are starters.  I KNOOWWW  they’re still the Bengals (no, those aren’t the same play).  But this team has something.  It’s got moxie.  It’s got heart.  And most importantly, it’s got 8.5 points to work with.  Who dey?  The Ravens, but not by 9 points.