If you all aren’t excited about the heat being generated by this NFL season, well, then there must be something wrong with you. As has been pointed out by numerous publications this week, we have more undefeated teams remaining in the NFL at this stage of the season than at any other time in the league’s history. Parity, it is being said, may not be dead, but at the very least it has taken a sabbatical this year allowing us to dismiss epically sorry squads like the Rams, Browns, Bucs, et al in order to focus on the plethora of truly elite teams. When you can count the teams that are worse than the lowly – and make no mistake, they are still lowly – Detroit Lions on more than one hand, well, something funny is going on. All of this funny business has resulted in some truly excellent NFL teams, and should lead to some outstanding football through the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs. I, for one, approve, as I don’t give two craps about parity within an NFL season. I’m all for season to season parity so that the balance of power is constantly cycling, but within a single season I don’t need a wild and crazy mix of 9-7 teams vying for a title. I want the 14-2 49ers vs. the 13-3 Cowboys like the early ’90’s, dammit! (Not really those teams, please, but you get the idea) I want some elite teams! Well, we’ve got ‘em. Speaking of elite, this week’s ‘ick certainly qualifies. More on her later. So, without further ado – and in honor of Mike and the Maddog having a mini-reunion today from 1pm-2pm – let’s look at some picks for a week 6 in the league where they PLAY…
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FOR PAY.
Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 8-7)
1) GREEN BAY -13.5 over Detroit
Hopefully you decided to skip my LKL’s last week and instead follow my regular picks where I went a respectable 8-3, because this is now back to back weeks where apparently Vegas has found the key I attempted to lose, and then went ahead and opened the door on a losing weekend. The interesting thing is, I had a great week of parlays and straight picks if gambling were legal online, but my treasured reader(s) were left with a measly 1-2 locks section. Well, not this week. I may just go ahead and annoint the Lions as “Team Backhanded Complement,” because they can expect to load up on those throughout the rest of the season as the “class” of the really terrible teams this season. Jim Schwartz’s squad really puts in a feisty effort, and if Matt “Could you tell I went to school in the south?” Stafford and Calvin “I’m changing his nickname from Megatron to Superfreak” Johnson weren’t banged up I’d like the Lions to cover here. Instead, I take a peek at an underrated and angry Packer team coming off a bye, at home, playing against a pass defense that has, thusfar this season, allowed opponent QB’s to post a ridiculous 119.7 QB rating. To put that in perspective, the highest single season NFL passer rating ever was Peyton Manning’s 121.1 in 2004. That was also the only season in NFL history rated higher than what the Detroit pass defense is currently giving up. Ouch, babe. Also, lest ye think that teams are just having a sweet time on few attempts, the Lions are also giving up the 27th most passing yards per game, something difficult to do when you are 1-4 and generally trailing every contest you enter. I smell HUGE Aaron Rodgers numbers and a Green Bay rout.
2) PITTSBURGH -14 over Cleveland
Look, times change and sometimes trends come and go in the NFL. This game does not provide an example of either of those statements. Cleveland hasn’t beaten Pittsburgh since October 5, 2003. These teams play 2x a year. Of these 11 straight Cleveland defeats, the Steelers have won by double digits 7 times, 20 or more 4 times, and twice by over 30, including last season’s finale where the Steelers rested players and still held the Browns to 0 points on 18 yards (total) passing by the immortal Bruce Gradkowski. The Browns will not be celebrating the 6th anniversary of that 2003 win with a win this coming Sunday, or, for that matter, even a competitive football game. Over/Under on Derek Anderson completions will stand at 7.5.
3) St. Louis +9.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Ok, bear with me. If the Rams were a snapshot of a human being, they’d probably look a lot more like this than, say, this. That second picture is so ridiculous it requires a small tangent while we ponder whether Monica Bellucci actually is the most underrated woman of the last decade. In those rankings she comes in at a not too shabby 18th, a ranking which earned the list’s creator much respect from the B Flow up until he threw it all away with an absurdly terrible top 10. Readers had voted her up as high as number 3 for the decade, and she currently sits at 6th in the fan poll on the list’s site. I mean seriously, THIS WOMAN is over 40?? And she’s, um, “European” with her assets? (Note: the B Flow will never actually link to “European” photos, rather we keep it U.S. Maxim-level and encourage you readers to go out and explore photographs from other continents on your own) Truly magnificent. Anyway, yea, the game. Lost in the sorrows of being romped again last week by the Vikings 38-10 – side note, did you know, seriously, that if you take out the riveting 9-7 loss to Washington in week 2 the Seahawks have lost their other 4 games by a combined total of 137-27!? – was the fact that the Rams actually moved the football, outgaining the Vikes 400-377 and even accumulating more first downs, 27-21. I swear, they did! I think this team is being sold short, and is actually probably good enough to challenge the Lions for “Worst Team Ever Division” supremacy. Now, please stifle your laughter long enough to remember that the Jaguars just lost 41-0 to the Seattle Seahawks last week and currently play home games in front of approximately 17 close family and friends. Not exactly the 1980’s Black Hole of Oakland there. Next, the Jaguars first two games vs. the NFC West this season have resulted in an 0-2 record and being outscored 72-17, and if there’s one thing you all know that I believe about the Jags it’s that they stay consistent within divisions. If the Rams were in the AFC South I’d say by all means, Jags cover, but outside the division, in an empty stadium, against a team that I think it is itching to unleash Steven Jackson on someone, I’ll say they aren’t worth 9.5 points just yet against ANYBODY.
Regular Games (Season Record: 34-26)
1) Houston +5.5 over CINCINNATI
Let’s just get this one out of the way early this week. My opinion of the Bengals has differentiated somewhat from that of the national media for most of the season. When the Bengals were 1-1 after Lambeau I thought they were underrated. Ditto up through the win at Pittsburgh. Then all of the sudden the Bengals were “for real.” Not so, not yet, said the B Flow, and they promptly almost blew a game to the Cleveland Browns. Next came a showdown with Baltimore, and despite a truly wonderful story in victory for the Bengals, the latest Cardiac Cats victory has more than a few scribes calling the team perhaps more lucky than good. I can’t count the number of times I have read this week that the Bengals are “not only a play away from 5-0, but also 3 plays away from 1-4.” Sports Guy has instead opted for the blind, all-in on the bandwagon approach, and while I absolutely love him for it (the B Flow has never been prouder in reading a paragraph like Simmons’ on the Bengals, and has likewise never been prouder of a team he has been a fan of in general in any sport) he also failed to point out a major turning point in that Baltimore game. Namely, the Bengals kind of dominated the game. They had nearly double the first downs and outgained the Ravens, in Baltimore, 403-257. They put up a 100-yard rusher on Baltimore for the first time in two and a half years. They held the ball for nearly 10 more minutes than did the Ravens. That was a seminal victory for the team; not necessarily because they came back to win again on the last drive, after all they had done that already, but rather because they showed they could go on the road against a very good, very physical football team and control the flow of the game. When Ray Rice spun out of a tackle to put the Ravens up 14-10 with just under 7 minutes to go Bengals fans were actually more frustrated than worried – not to say they were NOT worried – because they had truly deserved to be in front. They’d had another botched snap on a gimme field goal, a couple of dropped sure TD passes, and probably should have been ahead at that point something like 21-7 more than 10-7. This is huge because that kind of performance is far more repeatable than last second heroics on a week to week basis, despite what we’ve seen from these Cardiac Cats so far. Now the Bengals come home and play a team that is underrated at 2-3, but is nonetheless a team they should beat if they play well. Considering their next 3 games are Chicago, Baltimore and Pittsburgh it’s also a game the Bengals need to play well in. My pick here is a lot more about superstition and the Texans being underrated than it is a lack of belief in the Bengals, let’s call it 24-20 good guys.
2) Kansas City +6.5 over WASHINGTON
I had originally intended this to be a one-sentence dump game because the teams are irrelevant and I hate Washington. On a slightly closer – not to be confused with actually close – inspection, however, this game probably deserves a few more sentences due to the fact that Washington did actually look OK last week – at least on defense – in losing at Carolina, and had to blow a 17-2 lead to actually lose the game. Further, the Midwestern Tribal Leaders are wayyyy too terrible to be getting as much love as they are currently – remember, this is a real candidate for worst team ever status – and 6.5 points on the road is almost a sign of, gasp, respect here! Before you all remind me how the Chiefs “just finished playing the rest of the NFC East pretty tough,” I remind you they were never as in the Giants game as the final score indicated, Kevin Kolb embarrassed them, the Cowboys actually stink, and they freaking LOST TO FATSO. All this said, the team with the offensive name from our nation’s capital is still putrid, and I like the potential of the Cassel to Bowe combo at the very least generating a nice, late cover since we all know there’s zero chance Washington is capable of actually being up 3 touchdowns at any point against any opponent.
3) Baltimore +3 over MINNESOTA
A third straight road dog here, but the Ravens are the first one I actually like to win outright. I believe the Vikings to be a little overrated despite their incredible MNF performance in the QBWSNBN-Bowl, and I like the Ravens defense to have a little pride this week as they prepare for Adrian Peterson; the NFL’s SECOND leading rusher should provide a bit of a breather after having to deal with the LEADING rusher in the league. Ohh, sometimes I crack myself up. No pun intended. Seriously, though, click that photo of “the passion.” (Ced’s nickname is “the passion of the Ced” for the uninitiated). Ced is so completely out-of-nowhere that in Adam Schefter’s weekly 10-spot column over at ESPN.com he posted a picture of backup Bengals runner Bernard Scott by mistake even as he was lauding Benson’s season. I’m sure they’ve addressed that now, but it was hilarious to see. Anyway, this should be a very good game, and, as has been the case in the season thus far, I don’t need to waste a lot of your time previewing a great game. You already know the storylines from Mark Schlereth and the boys, and frankly these type of games should be about the football not the lines or the fanfare.
4) NY Giants +3 over NEW ORLEANS
Speaking of great games and short previews, here’s another great game that will get yet another short preview. I think the Giants are the very best team in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE right now, and whenever I started to think about this game in terms of gambling my mind kept going back to the Jets doing a pretty good number on the Saints in the Superdome a few weeks back. The Giants ain’t no Jets, so “Who Dat” dis week be Big Blue.
5) Carolina -3 over TAMPA BAY
Josh Johnson the football player? Not buying, sorry Bill Simmons. In fact, I’d say this calls for a trip to wikipedia for the weekly B-Flow biographical research bit. We are immediately greeted with light humor, of course, with the fact that wikipedia needs us to tell it which Josh Johnson we are referring to. You’ll be happy to know the American football JJ comes in just behind the Florida Marlins JJ (well played, wikipedia), and just before JJ the “footballer,” who is actually a middling midfielder for Trinidad and Tobago. The “second most real” Josh Johnson’s page is neat and tidy, and the B Flow quickly learns that JJ2, as we will now call him, is a cousin of the Bills Marshawn Lynch. One demerit. Given that he grew up in the urban war zone known as Oakland, perhaps we should cut JJ2 some slack; however, the mere consideration of this concept leads one to question whether we should applaud Marshawn Lynch for “emerging from the slums” to make something of himself, or to condemn him for essentially just bringing the slums TO the NFL. Makes for interesting cocktail party conversation! Moving on with JJ2, we find something of much greater concern. If we were to play a variation of the whole 7 degrees of Kevin Bacon with JJ2 only instead of movies we used “cousin-ships” (my second-favorite kind of “ships” to pirate ships!) as the linking agent we would find that it takes only two degrees to get from JJ2 to another number 2: (GASP!!) FATSO!!!! That’s right! JJ2 is actually a third cousin of the notorious F.A.T., currently quarterbacking for his hometown heroes, the Oakland Raiders! This, people, is why the B Flow continues to do this wikipedia segment, because we now know that not only is JaMarcus Russell not POSSIBLY an NFL quarterback, but he is quite literally not even the best quarterback amongst HIS GENERATION in his own family! Outstanding. Some more tidbits here quickly on “Josh Johnson: American Footballer” before we move on. First, did you know he holds the record for highest career passing efficiency in NCAA history, set while starring for the University of San Diego, my sister’s alma mater? That’s pretty sweet! 176.68 – i.e. better than perfect on the NFL scale – is something even the Lions’ secondary couldn’t scoff at! Second, in addition to his passing exploits, Mr. J. Johnson2 is the proud owner of a 4.44 40-yd dash time! Yowza! [Ed. note: cross off reference to Yowza on things-to-do this season list] Maybe it’s time to revisit that whole SELL SELL SELL rating I gave JJ2 at the outset? Eh, let’s keep the pick, hold our excitement, and just try to watch some tape of him this week to be sure.
6) Philadelphia -13.5 over OAKLAND
Whatever the game was after the adventure we just had with JJ2 was going to get screwed, so I picked this ridiculously worthless game next.
7) SEATTLE -3 over Arizona
So who wins the pot for first time this season I don’t reference Fatso in an Oakland game preview??? Just trying to keep everyone on their toes. I quickly reviewed my picks so far and saw that I had selected 6 straight road teams and got a little freaked out. We’ll see how it all goes, but fortunately this next game is one where I do like the home team. Specifically, I love the Seahawks playing at home. Their stadium is just about the opposite of Jacksonville’s home field in terms of vocal fan support and radioactive glare off the jerseys. Despite my hatred for TJ Douchemandzada which has carried over quite nicely from his Bengals years, I was pleased to see a little chemistry develop between he and Matt Hasselbeck last week for fantasy purposes. Look, my opinion on the Seahawks has been clear all season: Hasselbeck plays this team is pretty good and the best team in the division. He doesn’t, they suck big time. He’s playing this week, though I hate actually gambling on the Seahawks because at any moment during the game he could snap in half, leading to a Seneca Wallace led group of gentlemen. Not good, sirs, not good at all.
NY JETS -9.5 over Buffalo
Gosh, the Bills are worthless. In this game their worth is slightly higher, however, somewhat akin to the postgame food spread laid out by the clubhouse guys following an NFL game between approximately 1000000 pounds of hungry man. Gross. Let’s either contract the Bills or move them to Toronto already. I think Dick Jauron is an illegal substance over in Canada, so that’s a good start.
9) NEW ENGLAND -9 over Tennessee
I think my best Tennessee comments were all used up last week, and if you go back you’ll see that I have this team on the highway to being the best 0-6 team in NFL history in this, the same season where they were the most overrated 0-3 team in NFL history. This has to be a first in NFL history.
10) ATLANTA -3 over Chicago
Monica Bellucci break! Awesome. Between that woman and Diane Lane both being 43, who says science hasn’t made incredible strides in the last 20 years! Or were they just born that way? Nature/Nurture, regardless, beautiful stuff. This game, yes, back to the game, provides an excellent opportunity for two teams to show themselves to truly be who I thought they were. For the Falcons, that means very good and a contender for the NFC. For the Bears, that means a fraud and a non-playoff team. The nation get’s to watch in primetime to find out. Count me in.
11) SAN DIEGO -3 over Denver
I went back and forth on this game for a long time, as I’m finding it harder and harder to deny the fact that Denver might actually be good. Fortunately, Don Banks was there this week to pen an excellent article warning fans of the hazards of buying too much into a fast start, even this far into the season. Beyond the fact that last year the Chargers were 4-8 and managed to storm back to steal the division from Denver at .500, Don “Might Ducks had an Adam” Banks reminds us of teams like the 2003 Vikings who incredibly went to 6-0 before falling to 9-7 and missing the playoffs completely. I think anyone would be crazy to actually predict a 6-0 team to go 3-7 in their last 10, but a quick peek at that Denver schedule certainly makes one hesitant to award them anything better than 10-6 at this point. I also thought back to my predictions of the Denver season, and frankly, the only thing that has gone wrong is that Denver won in OT instead of New England last week. Otherwise, the prediction is going exactly according to plan, and that prediction ended with a 42-3 Charger massacre here. Let’s take another week before we throw this plot in the garbage, augmenting the score somewhat for young audiences, call it 31-17 San Diego at home with their backs against the wall. Also, right now, if the over/under on Bronco wins this season is 10.5, I think I might bet the under.
As a closing note, here’s one thing I would never bet the under on. On to the football!!!
