What a year of football this is turning out to be, great teams everywhere, hilariously bad teams everywhere, and even Peter King actually using the phrase “the revenge of Cedric” in his weekly picks as a reason why the Cincinnati Bengals will win a football game this weekend. Apparently, my discussion of the league lacking parity last week incited not just one article saying the same thing (de Brandon), but also this piece on just how things have gotten so bad (courtesy of commenter “Miller”) in the salary cap era, and this article on ridiculous cap mismanagement. It seems we are all watching the same league this season, and considering that there have been 20 blowouts of 21 points or more (the 2nd most in the last 39 years) this season, it’s probably a good thing that the media is trying to pick up the why’s and how’s of the current situation. Speaking of cap mismanagement, I can think of one thing that has nothing to do with being mismanaged, and that’s the body of this week’s ‘ick, the lovely Stacy Keibler. That’s what you call asset allocation management, gentlemen – one day maybe I’ll throw a pic like that up on my twitter page, but alas, today is not that day. Getting back to football for a second – and, believe me, after scouring the internet in quest of pics of SK looking like this; I mean really, forget NSFW (and again, the Flow will never link to “European” pics), that pic is NSFLife; that is much easier said than done – this week does offer quite an interesting slate of games between teams desperately needing to make a winning statement. Beyond the Super Bowl preview in Pittsburgh, we have some intriguing showdowns in Dallas, Cincinnati, New York, and Houston to pique our interest this week, each of which should help clear up this year’s NFL picture even further. So, without any further ado – or maybe just this little tidbit further ado, there, now without any FURTHER further ado – let us move on to a week 7 in the league where they PLAY…
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FOR PAY.
Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 10-8)
1) Indianapolis -13.5 over ST. LOUIS
It was a pretty good week for the LKL’s last week, with only Joshua Cribbs’ ridiculousness standing between the Flow and a perfect 3-0 week. Even with that ridiculousness the Steelers managed to win by 13 points, one under the spread, and outgained the Browns by a whopping 543-197 despite turning the ball over 4 times. Sometimes, you just get unlucky. Where I did not get unlucky, however, was in predicting these St. Louis Rammies to easily cover against the fraud that is the Jacksonville Jaguars. I thought I smelled faint whiffs of life emerging from Missouri in their matchup with the suddenly super Vikings, but while they were able to successfully cover last week on the scoreboard, they reverted to their old miserable selves on the field, outgained 492-262 and losing the first down battle by an incredible 33-13. 3 Jaguar turnovers kept the Rams in the game late, but they won’t get those this week with a rested and undefeated Colts team coming to town. Hell, the Colts don’t even have that far to travel, a mere 247 mile westward jaunt across I-70 will bring Peyton Manning and co. to the cozy confines of the Edward Jones Dome – or whatever they’re calling it these days – for the site of the 21st blowout by 21 or more points in the NFL this season. No key necessary.
2) San Diego -4.5 at KANSAS CITY
I’m going back to the well here by betting, once again, against a team from the cesspool known as the “Worst Team Ever” division. For the sake of reader sanity, I will outline the “Worst Team Ever” division standings here for you now. It’s an 8-team division, even with the current Buffalo omission, and rankings are in against the spread record, tiebreaker real record, and if still tied, B-Flow sentiment:
The B-Flow Worst Team Ever Division Standings
1) Oakland (3-3)
2) Cleveland (3-3)
3) Washington (2-4)
4) Detroit (2-4)
5) Kansas City (2-4)
6) St. Louis (2-4)
7) Tennessee (1-5)
Tampa Bay (1-5)
That’s right. If all you did was bet against these putrid squads you too would be 32-16 vs. Vegas. To put that in perspective, if all you did was bet against these teams with the spread you would actually have a better record than ESPN “experts” Marcus Allen, Mike Golic and Seth Wickersham picking the games STRAIGHT UP. Lest ye fellowes be getting overly carried away with the Chiefs’ first win last week, 14-6 over the “3rd-ranked” Native Americans, consider that this was a game whose scoring consisted of 6 field goals and a safety with 2 seconds left, and that there were a total of 23 first downs gained in the game. SD is coming off a tough loss to a suddenly very much for real Denver team in a game where the teams battled as equals for much of the night, and really only Eddie Royal’s return heroics marked the difference in the two squads. I know KC is a tough place to play, but 4.5 points is not nearly enough here considering the firepower on the Chargers offense and that the Chiefs, despite last week’s yuckfest, are still 29th in the league in defensive yards/game allowed.
3) New England -15.5 over TAMPA BAY
Let’s go ahead and make it a trifecta over WTE squads for the LKL’s this week. I can keep this one simple after all of those acronyms: TB (Tom Brady) is TDG (too damned good) for the TB (Tampa Bay) “D” (defense), currently giving up 28 PPG (points per game) to TNNNEP (teams not named New England Patriots), to ETA (even think about) stopping. Additionally, and in English now, if there’s one thing we learned from the Pats’ 59-0 romp over the not-so-Titanic-much-more-aptly-nicknamed-Flaming Thumbtacks last weekend it was this: “Randy Moss 9 yd pass from Tom Brady; 10:13; 4th quarter; 52-0 NWE.” That’s right, up 45-0 with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter Bill Belichik was still having Tom Terrific toss balls to Randy Moss in the endzone in a snowstorm. The Pats will not let up, and like a college team trying to inflate scoring a la Texas Tech, are quite comfortable trotting out 63-7 victors instead of an identically useful 31-7. I wonder if Belichik knows there is no NFL BCS? Try playing the drinking game outlined by Mike Tanier in his weekly picks column for this game – being played in London – if you get bored.
Regular Games (Season Record: 40-31)
1) Green Bay -9 over CLEVELAND
When it ain’t broke, don’t go tryin’ to fix it. Dance with the girl that brung ya. Let sleepin’ dogs lie. However you want to say it, I am tapping this WTE division for all it’s worth this week! Granted it’s somewhat disappointing that the Lions, the team racked up all of 149 total yards against this Green Bay D last week, aren’t playing, but we’ll go ahead and plan on a similar outcome here with the Derek Anderson led Brownies. Last week we had set the over/under on D.A. completions at 7.5, and shockingly, despite only one offensive TD – though for CLE that was an upset in and of itself considering Joshua Cribbs is the only player on the entire roster with 2 TD’s – he was able to hit the over in a 9-24 performance for 122 yards, a TD and a pick. I’m going to bump this week’s over/under on completions to 9.5, but also raise the INT O/U to 1.5. Anyone wants to work that into a parlay bet with the Flow, just let us know. We’re going for the completions under and INT over combo.
2) Buffalo +7 over CAROLINA
You know it’s been a little bit since we’ve stopped by our girl Stacy, so let’s go ahead and pick this meaningless game as a backdrop. Hot Clicks often serves as inspiration for the B-Flow’s ‘ick choices, although we certainly would never run the same girl as HC on the same day, and we always do our own picture research. 
. Did that turn into a winky face? Hope so. Anyway, we’ve been asked a lot recently why we’ve been throwing the term “smokeshow” around left and right. First of all, the Bro Bible – yea, guess there is one? – uses it all the time. Secondly, when Jim Cramer screams out about 64-year old retiree women callers from Florida as being “smokeshows,” it is downright hilarious. Lastly, it’s one of the truly rare terms used to describe a good-looking female that has 2-syllables. The definition of “smokeshow” is basically this. Nice work, Stacy. You probably went ahead and clicked through that album on your own, but just in case, this one was, um, especially exceptional. For the Bills and Panthers fans out there who are upset with my treatment of their game, well, first of all if they’re upset they’re surely female, and if they’re female they’re surely not reading this blog, but, here is a fun tidbit for you on why I’m going Bills: last week, in a WINNING effort vs. a lowly WTE outfit, Jake “Please Get Me Off of This Team Before Steve “Not the Real Steve Smith Anymore” Smith Kills Me While I’m Sleeping In The Pocket Again” Delhomme went a remarkable 9-17 for 65 (!) yards a TD and 2 picks. Gross.
3) HOUSTON -3 over San Francisco
Nice little game here, but the intro is going to be short as we need to get this show on the road and I don’t have a lot of fun notes for this one. If you have Insider FO puts together a nice package of tidbits over on ESPN on a weekly basis, so you could go check that out here if you are a tidbit kind of guy/girl. Anyway, Frank Gore is supposed to be coming back this week for San Francisco, so that implies big things against a Texans run defense that has only slowed down The Passion (of the Ced) thusfar this season. Still, and I can’t believe I am stealing this from Peter King but I am, did you know that Matty Schaub leads the NFL in TD passes right now? It’s true! He does! Not in love with the 49er defense, and that beatdown they suffered just before the bye has me more than nervous about their potential for the 2nd half against teams outside the NFC Suck, er, West. I like another big Schaub game here, nice receiving numbers for Johnson and Slaton again, and a bevy of “here come the Texans” articles come Monday after this 34-20 victory.
4) NY Jets -5.5 over OAKLAND
I will not jump on the Fatso wagon. Will not do it. Don’t care that his counterpark Mark “Uhoh, Suddenly Jets Fans Aren’t Sure About Me As the Franchise” Sanchez posted this gem last week against Buffalo: 10-29, 119 yds, 0 TD, 5 INT for a whopping rating of 8.3!!! To put how epically bad that performance was in perspective, consider that it is about 2.5 times WORSE than even Fatso’s worst performance of this young season. Look, Oakland will not move the ball again, and I can’t see the Jets winning by anything less than a TD. Remember, FATSO.
5) New Orleans -6 over MIAMI
This one is a little trickier than perhaps it seems, because if there is one thing that Miami will do – especially at home – it is pound the rock incessantly using Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams out of the Wildcat. I’m not convinced the Saints are stout enough up front to completely turn them aside in this game, and the result will be about 35-40 minutes of possession for Flipper’s boys. Unfortunately for said Marine Mammals, the Saints are fully capable of putting up 31 points in about 15 minutes. That annihilation of the Giants defense last week to the tune of 493 yards, 48 points and a 4th quarter procession was incredible to watch. Until the Saints give me a reason to think they WON’T cover a 6 point spread, I’m not just hiding behind points with them.
6) Atlanta +4 over DALLAS
When I first opened up the spreads this week the Atlanta game jumped out as one I might want to lock. As the readers of the Flow know, we are very high on this Falcons team and not particularly high on Dallas. As we always do, however, the Flow went ahead and took a closer look this week and found that although the erstwhile Dirty Birds did indeed beat the Bears last week – and thank goodness for that – it wasn’t exactly pretty. Consider, their starting quarterback ended the game with a 68.3 rating and their leading rusher had 30 yards on 12 carries. It’s hard to win that way. As an added issue, they’ve also just lost a key starting cornerback Brian Williams for the season which will make it especially difficult to keep up with rising Cowboys star Miles Austin, a preseason FO favorite. At the very least, Austin, Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton represent three tall, strong, and fast gentlemen, which is three more than currently exist in the entire Atlanta secondary. Why Atlanta, then? Because I believe in Matt Ryan to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez vs. the Dallas secondary, and I believe in a return to battering ram status for Michael Turner against Wade Phillips’ stunt-happy schemes. I’d look for a shootout here, and not surprisingly Vegas is already ahead of me on that one with the 47.5 O/U, and for the Falcons to at the very least keep it close throughout with a still banged up Marion Barber not quite ready to seal all deals just yet. Give me the points and the better quarterback on a hunch.
7) Minnesota +5.5 over PITTSBURGH
Hated making this pick, hated it. Do not ever like to pick against Pittsburgh at home in a big game, especially considering this year’s Steelers’ offensive strength plays right into the Vikings’ – relative, anyway – defensive weakness in the secondary. Still, you cannot ignore this Vikings team anymore. The QBWSNBN is looking like the QBWSNBN from the first half of last year, and All-Day AP is still running over, around, and through people despite picking up a couple knocks the past few weeks. I want to put on the record that I am a little concerned about the longevity of greatness for this edition of the Purple People Eaters what with quite a few greybeards around at key positions and a running back who refuses to go out of bounds. Still, Percy Harvin and the young receivers are thriving in an environment where an actual NFL quarterback is present – anyone still calling for Tarvaris Jackson? Anyone? Is he even still on the roster? Anyone surprised NOBODY even thought about making a move for him at the deadline? I digress. – and the team is currently playing some of the best football in the league. A nugget for thought as we move on: Minnesota had 12 possessions against a still tough Ravens defense, and got points on 7 of them. I can still see the Steelers winning this game, but 5.5 points is simply way too many for a team playing at this level, I don’t care where it’s being played. Absolutely a potential Super Bowl preview here.
NY GIANTS -7 over Arizona
Very tough game to call given how amazing Arizona looked last week, and just how schizophrenic the team has been on a week-to-week basis throughout the year. Now, I know the Seahawks had 3rd and 4th stringers along the O-Line, but Matt Hasselbeck did actually play the whole game and the Blue/Neon Men Group are still a tough team in their building. Arizona didn’t just beat them, either, they demolished them. The Redbirds allowed only 128 total yards, 7 first downs (2 fewer than the Titans got in a 59-0 loss), and held the football for an unheard of 43 minutes! Now the defending NFC Champs draw the team many thought deserved to be NFC Champs through most of last season, and it’s a bit of a show-me game here. 7 points is a lot, but I love the matchup of the Giants ferocious D-Line against Kurt Warner’s pocket presence/fumble-itis and the still very shaky Cardinal O-Line, and unlike Julius Jones and the Seahawks’ practice squad, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and the Giants big uglies are a group that will be committed to testing that number 1 ranked Arizona run defense. The weather report for the Meadowlands on Sunday looks ominous, which, as the proud owner of the more physical club, must be music to Tom Coughlin’s ears.
9) Philadelphia -7 over WASHINGTON
I don’t know what is going on over there in Washington, but it sure isn’t pretty. That link had nothing to do with the Washington football team if you couldn’t guess that already, so you might want to go back and click it. Back to the nation’s capital, where apparently the Indigenous Persons have opted to cede playcalling control over to one “Sherman Lewis,” a man who has been on the payroll for about 5 weeks. Interesting decision. There’s Sherman! Looks like he may have had a rough go of it in High School, so the B-Flow decided to head over to Wikipedia to see what kind of a go he’s had of it elsewhere. Sherman’s page is immediately enlightening, as we quickly discover this is a man who has been out of the NFL since 2004. Recall, he has been OUT OF THE LEAGUE for more years than weeks he has been with his current organization, and yet he has just been awarded playcalling duties. Speaking of playcalling, Wikipedia tells us that Sherman’s last post was as the offensive coordinator of the memorable 2003/2004 Lions offense. Considering the Lions had the NFL’s very worst offense that season, this is unfortunate for football fans in the greater Potomac drainage basin area. In more positive news, it does turn out Sherman was an All-America running back at Michigan State, though sadly for reasons unnamed, he was not able to turn that collegiate success into an NFL career of any sort, flaming out after two years with the, I believe still functional, Toronto Argonauts of the CFL. Really there’s not much else on his page, although this article alerts us to the fact that Lewis does bring “experience and championships” to the Washington organization. Dan Snyder must have forgotten that Joe Gibbs also brought those qualities, however quickly learned that championships from 10-15 years ago perhaps do not directly result in new championships. Of greater concern to Eagles fans will be the fact that they managed to lose to Fatso and the Raiders despite not turning the ball over once, and committing only 4 penalties. In fact, Oakland and Philadelphia ran a nearly identical number of plays last Sunday (65 and 66, respectively) and the Raiders simply did more with those plays, outgaining the Birds 325-283. While the B-Flow’s only time in Philly is spent at the beautiful Citizen’s Bank Park, and not listening to Philly talk radio, it’s hard to believe more Kevin Kolb whispers aren’t abound nationally after a performance like that. Regardless, the Eagles now get to play a team which accumulated all of 7 first downs against the Kansas City Chiefs last week, and who’s primary playcaller – as we’ve just gone over – has been out of the NFL for 5 years. I guess the only downside there would be it may be hard to find any HD tape on Sherman Lewis’ offensive schemes. I’ll give the Eagles a pass on last week and see if they return to normalcy.
10) CINCINNATI -1 over Chicago
Finally we come to the Bengals, who were brought quite rudely back down to earth by the Houston Texans in the second half last week. The offense continued its trend of disappearing for an entire half – unfortunately this time it was the latter of the two – only this time the defense got in on the act by not volunteering to show up at all, surrendering 472 yards of offense to Matt Schaub and co. For the Bears, it was a game of what-ifs, as they actually played fairly well on the road in Atlanta, but more costly turnovers cost them a shot at 4-1, and now the Monsters of the Midway find themselves looking up some ways to the Vikings and tied with the rival Packers in the NFC North. Both teams need this game, and both teams really are looking to show people who they really are this week. Really there’s no logical reason to take the Bengals, they’re 10 yards better on offense but 45 yards worse on defense, and frankly have yet to play a game in which they looked remotely good from start to finish. The Bears defense can still fly around the ball, and with the Bengals likely without two starting defensive linemen – Antwan Odom for the season and Domata Peko likely for just this week – Jay Cutler should have some time in the pocket to find the weak links of the Bengal secondary (aka anyone other than the starting two corners) and pick them apart. Expect to see a lot of Leon Hall on Devin Hester and Jonathan Joseph on TE Greg Olsen, leaving safeties Roy Williams, Chris Crocker and Chinedum Ndukwe to cover the Johnny Knox’s and Earl Bennett’s of the world. Frankly the Bears names don’t matter in that equation, as the only thing the Bengals safeties have covered this year is a lot of ground running after people towards their end zone. To make matters worse, B-Flow sworn enemy Adam Duerson has picked the Bengals in his game of the week, a remarkable turnaround from the man who dubbed the squad mental Nancies just a few short weeks ago. The Bengals remain mentally tough, but given injuries, inconsistencies with penalties on offense, along with inexplicable attachments to 3rd and 4th string tight ends and aversions to young, talented 3rd down backs, the vibe in Cincinnati is not positive right now. Still, the B-Flow believes in Carson Palmer, and was encouraged by Chad Ochocinco’s slightly more involved role in the gameplan last week. Look for another squeaker, and potentially more heroics by number 9 in Halloween colors. That said, should the Bengals fail to step up to this test as they did last week – and that was following their best statistical game of the season – the Flow will not fall for their mirage again this season. Put up or shut up time in the Jungle.
And with that, we bid adieu, but not without one last farewell from weekly ‘ick Stacy. Enjoy the games!
