Abbreviated picks this week as I am running to the airport, and obviously haven’t done all of the errands I wanted to do this morning. I do sincerely apologize to those of you who were hoping to waste time with an extended picks session this week. Also, with the Bengals on a bye week, the Flow has been surprisingly out of touch with the lines this week, only learning what they were earlier this morning. This week’s ‘ick gets a full picture intro:
So, yea, she’s pretty cute – even if she is dating Derek Jeter… Regardless, let’s get to it, in the league where they play…
…
FOR PAY.
Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 13-8)
1) INDIANAPOLIS -12.5 over San Francisco
It was a nice week for the LKL’s and the Flow in general, as a 3-0 locks plus 6-3-1 regular games has us trucking towards the 60% mark this season, a key figure in gambling success. No reason here to stop betting on the Colts to cover when they have shown few signs of weakness thusfar, rolling to a 6-0 record while outscoring opponents 179-77 and ranking 4th offensively and 9th defensively in yards per game. That said, a closer inspection of their schedule reveals victories over such squads as Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee and St. Louis. Wins over Miami and Arizona on the road – Arizona in dominant fashion – suggest this is no fluke team, however any discussion of 16-0 this point is a little ridiculous. Problem here is the Lucky Horseshoes are at home, indoors on their turf, which gives them a distinct advantage over the high energy/effort physicality 49ers, who lack the playmakers on offense to exploit strong defenses. Vernon Davis is knocking on that door, but I just can’t see the Alex Smith revolution starting this week. Colts comfortable.
2) Houston -3 over BUFFALO
Buffalo is certainly a difficult place to play, but let’s be honest, this Bills team was a loss away from being the 9th member of the WTE division last week. I’m not buying their resurgence at all, and anytime Ryan Fitzpatrick is a starting quarterback in the NFL you go the other way. Plus, the Texans are looking legitimately feisty at this point with their defense starting to hold up its end of the bargain. Enough, lock this one up.
3) BALTIMORE -3 over Denver
Baltimore gets up for big games, is on a startling 3 game losing streak (that should have ended last week if their kicker could hit a 40yd FG), and is playing at home. They’re borderline desperate at this point with two 5-2 teams on byes above them in their division, so they need a good performance. Their defense has been disparaged in the national media for the first time in recent memory, and Ray Lewis and crew will be very mad. Denver is good, and getting better by the game, but I think the run ends here. This road venue is asking too much of them – Kyle Orton is no Carson Palmer and I don’t think the Broncos have seen an offense as dedicated to pounding the football as the Ravens. Further, and I know this is nitpicky, but what do the Broncos really have other than a nice OT win over New England? A fluke win over Cincinnati, wins over WTE squads Cleveland and Oakland, a close home win over a Dallas team that good teams should beat at home, and then a special teams fueled win over a schizophrenic Chargers squad. That adds up to a pretty good team, but not a 13-3 team. Only 13-3 teams beat a good Ravens team on the road coming off a bye on a 3 game losing streak. And that’s that.
Regular Games (Season Record: 46-34-1)
1) Atlanta +10 over NEW ORLEANS
I know, I know. Last week I said there was no reason to bet against the Saints until they gave you one, and I’m not one of those that’s jumping on last week’s first half and saying “huge hole” with this team. For me, this has to do with the fact that the Falcons are due for a good game. They’ve played two straight clunkers and quite simply are not this bad. The lack of starting players in the secondary really concerns me…realllly concerns me to the point where I had originally locked this game and then moved it down, but I still believe in good football teams getting 10 points. If the Falcons can’t cover this maybe the Flow will have to take a closer look at them next week when we’re back to full time attention.
2) CHICAGO -13 over Cleveland
Bounce back game for Bears at home vs. a WTE squad. Predictably, the WTE teams went 0-6 against the spread last week with byes for the Lions and Titans. Sadly, 3 squads will be on a bye this week leaving 0-5 as the worst possible record. For those interested, here are the updated WTE division standings. Again, the records are sorted by against the spread record, with tiebreakers going first to overall real record then to B-Flow sentiment:
1) Oakland (3-4)
2) Cleveland (3-4)
3) Detroit (2-4)
4) Washington (2-5)
5) Kansas City (2-5)
6) St. Louis (2-5)
7) Tennessee (1-5)
Tampa Bay (1-6)
Great work by this division, keeping bettors everywhere in the black.
3) GREEN BAY -3 over Minnesota
No logical reason for this one, just that FO stats love the Packers almost as intensely as they love the Eagles every year, rating them the 4th best team in the NFL behind the Saints, Colts and Pats in that order. The difference is, I also love this Packers team from the “eye test” whereas the Eagles are about as pleasing to the eye as that zit on Bill Murray’s face in Osmosis Jones. Yea, that was an Osmosis Jones movie reference. As far as real reasons, the Packers O-Line is much healthier than their previous meeting, the Vikings secondary is less healthy, QBWSNBN cannot play that well again IMO, and you have to envision some adjustments in protections against Jared Allen this time around. Packers receivers getting open has never been a problem, it’s been does Rodgers – who admittedly must bear some of the blame here, as he holds the ball too long too often – not having time to get it to them. This time I believe he gets enough time – and remember the Pack were right in that game last time anyway. A quick check at NFL.com’s videos where they mic players and coaches during the game with Brad Childress makes me even more comfortable.
4) Miami +3 over NY JETS
This is me selling on the Jets and their revolting blob of a head coach.
5) DETROIT -3 over St. Louis
NOOOOO!!!! It was bound to happen, a WTE showdown forcing one of these units to actually cover the spread. Devastating.
6) Seattle +9.5 over DALLAS
I’m not completely convinced that the Cowboys are back, though the upgrade from Roy Williams Number 1 Receiver to Miles Austin Number 1 Receiver is gargantuan. I think Dallas wins this game, but 9.5 points is too many for a team off a bye as healthy as they will ever be. And as we’ve reviewed here before, a healthy, Hasselbeck-led Blue/Neon Men Group isn’t such a disaster. Plus, THE REVENGE OF JULIUS JONES!!!!!!!!!!!!
7) SAN DIEGO -16.5 over Oakland
Do not like this pick as I don’t know if Fatso is actually starting this week or not. If not, it is very possible the Raiders cover this line. Still, it’s a revenge game of sorts for the Bolts who were almost embarrassed by Les Incompetents week 1, and the league is giggling about teams calling weeks vs. the Raiders the equivalent of scrimmages. I would link to that article if I weren’t writing at 100 mph.
Jacksonville +3 over TENNESSEE
Divisional game for Jacksonville, WTE team giving points. Done and done. Let’s peek over at Minka again: holy crap.
9) ARIZONA -10 over Carolina
John Fox made the decision this week to stick with Jake Delhomme at quarterback. Bad decision – especially going into a game with the suddenly legitimately ferocious and number 1 ranked against the run Arizona D.
10) NY Giants PK over PHILADELPHIA
2 weeks ago I was calling the Giants the best team in the NFL, and now the headlines are screaming about how they’re a paper tiger. I know Eli’s struggling and will be going up against a brutal defense in Philly, but I can’t get that vision of the Eagles losing to the Raiders out of my head. The Giants will run a similar game plan only at an NFL level, pounding multiple backs into the heart of the Eagles blitz attack. New York will also be able to complement this pounding with a play action, unlike the Bay Area’s version of pirates. Don’t bet on this game, it’s a good show me special.
So I apologize again for the hastiness of these selections, I have to leave to get to the airport now. Ladies always remember, have a baby by 50cent, be a millionaire. Minka says goodbye with another full shot, Jacksonville here I come:
