All of the sudden we’re into the second football weekend in November already, having passed the halfway point in this 2009 NFL season. As the second half of the season kicks off we start to see some teams fade as they struggle with the colder, more inclement weather and face mounting injury concerns, while others dig their heels in and prepare for playoff runs. November is one of the best sports months of the year, we’ve got pro football, college football, pro and college basketball, and even hockey to sustain us in our march towards Thanksgiving, and Vegas has spent the first two months of the season tweaking their formulas to ensure they are prepared to take as much money as possible from you just in time for the holidays. Last week the B Flow struggled a bit with the regular picks, although admittedly we did go 2-1 in LKL’s and were working on a short time frame, but a quick perusal of this week’s lines on Monday suggested the weeks of easy 60% correct are out the window. Continuing with a theme started last week we will post a full pic of the week’s ‘ick(s) right into the post to get us started on the right foot. This week’s theme, in honor of the humongous Alabama-LSU SEC showdown tomorrow at 330pm on CBS, will be girls looking hot in support of the Tide:
Excellent work girls. And now let’s get to it for a week 9 in the NFL. A week 9 in the league… where they play…
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FOR PAY.
Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 15-9)
1) Green Bay -9.5 over TAMPA BAY
We’ll start this week out with a B Flow favorite, the Green Bay Packers, taking on the very worst of the Flow’s WTE Division. To follow up on that point, the WTE division successfully put together its very first winning week of 2009, going 3-2 with 2 wins outright, although to be fair one of those came in St. Louis’ head-to-head showdown win over Detroit (more on this game later). This week 3 teams return from byes (Washington, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay) and I fully expect normalcy to return…starting right here. According to FO stats, the Pack are the 6th best team in football, and while I’m not quite ready to anoint them that status (a la FO rating the Eagles as the best team in the NFL throughout last season, further evidence that their system over-rewards good west-coast offenses with run-stopping defenses) I am certainly comfortable stating that they are better than their 4-3 record and, perhaps more importantly, that Tampa is the worst team in the NFL. They’re starting a rookie at QB in Josh Freeman who posted a worse than 60% completion percentage and 44/34 TD/INT ratio at Kansas State for the past three years, not exactly inspiring confidence. Further denting the Freeman wagon is the fact that he was behind Fatso’s cousin on the depth chart until this week. Going against GB’s ball-hawking secondary will not go well. Finally, while Tampa’s Merrey Krewe ranks a respectable 15th in passing YPG allowed by counting method, they come in as FO’s worst overall defense, 30th against the run and 31st against the pass. Teams have been up by so many points so frequently, that they simply don’t have to pass in the second half, and when that happens the erstwhile juggernaut that was the Tampa Bay D is no longer capable of stopping people from running it down their throats either. I’m thinking something like 30-13 here, minimum, with the Pack storming out to a 2-3 TD lead by halftime.
2) Pittsburgh -3 over DENVER
Another road dog, but this time a road dog traveling to a high altitude stadium to play a 6-1 football team that has already beaten Dallas and New England at home this season. Speaking of the high altitude, bravo to the Steeler organization coming to its senses and not letting safety Ryan Clark play this game in Denver due to a genetic sickle cell trait that almost killed him the last time he played there. I mean, seriously, that is scary stuff. Back to the game for a second, Mike Tanier sagely points out that the apparent Ravens beatdown of the Broncos last weekend was not so bad as it may have seemed in the box score noting that this was still a close game well into the 4th quarter. Indeed, standard B-Flow inspection shows that even the box score doesn’t suggest a Ravens blowout, as first downs were 17-16 Denver and neither team gained 300 total yards of offense. Perhaps Mr. Tanier is really referring to the “line score,” which simply shows Baltimore 30, Denver 7, but either way, I think this is missing the point. The point as I see it is that Denver has played 3 teams I would classify as very physical at the point of attack: the Patriots, the Bengals (yes, the Bengals – they’re 5th in rush YPG allowed and also boast the NFL’s 4th leading rusher), and the Ravens. (Sorry Dallas and San Diego fans, it’s not that your teams are bad, it’s just they arent smashmouth good). In those three games the Broncos won in OT, won on a fluky play and should have lost, and then lost badly on the scoreboard. Moral of the story here is that unless Denver plays a perfect game on defense and special teams, they can’t do enough offensively to beat a very good, physical football team. Pittsburgh is exactly that, and I think they will cause major problems for Denver. Pete Prisco – shockingly with something relevant – points out the fact that Baltimore may have created a blueprint for success against Denver, and despite Peter King ridiculously only pointing out how good Denver’s defense was in a 30-7 defeat in his weekly picks, I believe that Roethlisberger should be good for 3-4 excruciating “wiggle-outs followed by back-breaking 25 yd passes” to Hines “I’m Officially the Dirtiest Player in the NFL as Voted by My Peers” Ward in this game. That will be more than enough, I like the Steelers here – I like ‘em a lot.
3) ATLANTA -10 over Washington
Don’t need to say a whole lot here, I still believe the Falcons to be a darned good football team, having just lost 2 in a row for the first time under Head Coach Mike Smith. The Redskins offense, led by whoever Dan Snyder’s favorite consultant of the week may be, is the perfect antidote to a long weekend with the Saints offense the week before. Especially helpful to the Falcons is that their biggest defensive weakness, namely size in the secondary and ability to prevent big plays, cannot be exploited by Jason Campbell and the Indigenous Person’s dink-and-dunk attack and minuscule wideouts. Further crimping the Potomac Drainage Basin’s cause in this game is the injury to Chris Cooley and the 23rd best FO-rated secondary in the NFL, a dangerous thing when going up against Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White. Before moving on I do want to note that I am starting to get whiffs of overratedness coming from Matt “Matty Ice” Ryan, but will withhold judgment until at least after this week. Still, I’m laying the 10 here with genuine concern that Washington will even get that many.
Regular Games (Season Record: 49-41-1)
1) JACKSONVILLE -6.5 over Kansas City
Terrible week for the regular games last week, as we went a dreadful 3-7. As such, what better place to get back on a roll than a) the home of an NFL franchise that is being called out for being an unsustainable host city, and b) against the Tribal Leaders! There really isn’t much that needs to be said about the actual football game here other than that it will certainly be miserable to watch, for one, and for two the previews this week will get to cover this hilarious bit of reining in by Jack Del Rio who essentially made it impossible for David Garrard to continue to audible from running plays to passing plays. On the one hand considering their tailback (MJD) ran for freaking 177 yards on 8 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) carries in a losing effort last week it would probably be a good idea to get him more involved, but on the other hand if the other team now knows when it puts 9 in the box the QB can’t audible to a pass it might not be the best thing. Fortunately for MJD owners and gamblers everywhere, this week’s opponent won’t be able to do anything about it anyway, so we can worry about this next week.
2) Arizona +3 over CHICAGO
As I’m sure you’ve read elsewhere this week this game is absolutely impossible to predict. We literally have no idea which Cardinals team will show up (witness big win over NYG only to get romped by Carolina at home), nor do we know what type of quirky defensive/special teams TD’s the Bears will come up with at home. Let’s just take the points here, get in a quick shot of some southern belles, and move on. Actually, take a second to see what the Tide is up against this weekend…
3) SEATTLE -10 over Detroit
I actually went back and forth on this game because I thought Detroit was at least a high effort team and the Seahawks are just a bumbling mess of injuries, ineptitude and idiocy, but as it turns out the Lions are capable of losing to the Rams (the score of that game was actually 3-2 with under a minute to go in the first half. 3 to freaking 2.) and Superfreak is still banged up. Let’s give the Seahawks one more chance to be relevant this year – side note, how terrible does TJ Housh look these days??? I TOLD YOU SO YOU F*CKERS – and update the WTE Division standings showcasing Oakland (!) starting to pull away:
1) Oakland (4-4)
2) St. Louis (3-5)
3) Cleveland (3-5)
4) Washington (2-5)
5) Tennessee (2-5)
6) Detroit (2-5)
7) Kansas City (2-5)
Tampa Bay (1-6)
Some points: Yes, that is Oakland sitting at .500 vs. the spread this season, and yes that is St. Louis, one week removed from a 19-game losing streak sitting pretty at number 2. Have to love a division where those two thing are possible.
4) NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over Miami
This should actually be an outstanding football game, and I was very torn on which way to go here. New England is a bit of an enigma to me, going 1-2 against the three toughest defenses they’ve played in the Jets, Broncos, and Ravens and not looking particularly threatening in any of those games. That said, Miami is only tough on offense, not defense, where their secondary is a lowly 21st in the NFL and features the most torched corner in the NFL in Jason Allen. Miami will try to pound the rock over and over in chilly New England, but I just don’t see them being able to stop the Patriots through the air, and sooner or later Chad Henne will make a mistake against an excellent Pats D. Also, consider this tidbit on the Pats offense courtesy of FO through ESPN Insider: New England now has the top offense in the NFL according to our DVOA ratings; what’s remarkable about the Patriots’ offense this year is its ability to do everything well. The Pats rank second in passing and seventh in rushing. They rank sixth in game-to-game consistency. The Pats rank in the top ten for DVOA in all four quarters and on first, second and third down. When we split the field into 20-yard zones, the Pats are 11th in the red zone and top ten in the other four zones. They have the sixth-highest DVOA from shotgun and the third-highest DVOA with the quarterback under center. Yikes!
5) NEW ORLEANS -13 over Carolina
Similar to last week’s Falcons matchup, I fear for the Saints that the Panthers strengths suit too well the Saints’ weaknesses. However, unlike last week, the Panthers are so hideously horrible throwing the football that they cannot ever fall behind in this game and catch back up. They have to run run run and run some more to be successful. Frankly, if I thought John Fox were ballsy enough to literally run DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart every single play this would be pretty interesting in terms of covering. He isn’t, and as such we will see more three and outs, more turnovers, and a more comfortable Saints cover.
6) Tennessee +4 over SAN FRANCISCO
Brutal game to pick here, as I don’t really believe in San Francisco, but I know that Tennessee is terrible. The problem, here, is that Tennessee’s true horror occurs in the secondary, not against the run, and while that could really open things up for Alex Smith and Vernon Davis…well, you heard what I just said. To be fair I kind of like the 49ers in a 2-3 point game here, so I’ll take the 4, and try to get lucky. Speaking of getting lucky, here are some phenomenal snappers of Tide supporters. I especially approve of that old I heart Julio shirt that I had sent around last year. I’m going to go ahead and purchase that right now, actually, in preparation for my future wife’s Saturday wardrobe.
7) San Diego +4.5 over NY GIANTS
The Giants are in a rut. They look “confused” on defense and post-metatarsal injury Eli is looking a lot more like pre-Super Bowl Eli than Super Bowl and since Eli. That’s not a good thing, especially considering that other than rookie Hakeem Nicks the Giants wideouts – stats be damned – are not particularly physically imposing from a size or speed standpoint. An offense can’t run on TJ Houshmandzadeh’s lite like Steve “No Longer the Other Steve Smith” Smith if the quarterback isn’t being accurate with his passes and sharp on his reads. Further, the formerly formidable Giants rushing attack is currently lodged at a pedestrian 14th in FO stats and are averaging fewer YPC than the St. Louis Rammies. While the San Diego secondary is unlikely to cure Eli’s recent woes, a 29th ranked rushing defense appears exceptionally vulnerable to Big Blue’s big backfield combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw. Why San Diego then? Because unlike the Giants here, the Bolts can come from behind via the electric arm of Philip Rivers, currently sporting the league’s 4th best yards per attempt, and rocket-fueled receiving corps led by Vincent “Wow I Am Flat Nasty” Jackson who is currently 3rd in the NFL in receiving yardage and 4th in YPC at a remarkable 17.9. The Giants secondary has been extremely vulnerable and the weather looks OK for Sunday – and to be honest the swirling winds would affect Manning more than Rivers anyway – so I’m looking for a late cover at the very least from the Chargers in this “Draft of 2003 Bowl” at the Meadowlands. Would not be at all surprised to see the Chargers win outright, even traveling east.
PHILADELPHIA -3 over Dallas
First just let me say that I guess because I didn’t get to get in a full week of picks last week this week has been much easier to be somewhat serious with all the picks. I don’t like this turn of events, as I miss adventures in Wikipedia learning things about our old pals Sherman Lewis and Josh “2nd on Wikipedia Rankings and the Bucs Depth Chart” Johnson. Maybe it’s because the Raiders, Browns, Rams, AND Bills are on bye weeks. We’ll save the humor for them, though just thinking of Wikipedia did make me want to run and learn a bit more about new fantasy superstar Miles Austin. Miles, it turns out, is actually from my home state of New Jersey (!), though from a town called “Gillette” somewhere in north-central NJ which I have never heard of. He apparently went to a high school called Garfield, and actually still holds the record for the second-longest javelin throw in Bergen County history at 214 ft 8 inches. Note to self, if a nuclear bomb hits the United States and we must again revert to spearing wildlife for meat, call Miles Austin. He’s also probably big enough and fast enough to run down a small buffalo by hand, so all in all a real bonus for any pre or post society survival. Really there isn’t much more to know about Miles on his Wiki page, maybe some of his relatives should get on updating that since he is about to be ridiculously famous and all. I’m also somewhat unclear on how a gentleman who is 6′3″, 214 pounds, runs like the wind, and has outstanding hands (and can HURL a javelin) ended up playing football at Monmouth College in NJ, but I guess that’s a story for another day. If you’re still thinking about this actual football game, I’m not sure what to tell you as it could go either way, but I am pretty comfortable stating the “over” is the way to go.
9) INDIANAPOLIS -8.5 over Houston
Went back and forth on this one as I do like this Texans team and they were getting a lot of points. The line actually opened at 10.5 and likely because of gambling opinions similar to mine shot down to 8.5 rather quickly. Peter King additionally points out in his picks (linked earlier) that Houston only lost by 4 and 6 points to the Colts last season, and I am seeing a recurring trend here that divisional teams – or really teams in general who get to play the Colts a lot, i.e. Patriots, Ravens, Steelers as well – seem to fare much better against Peyton and the Lucky Horseshoes than do the poor, unsuspecting foes from other conferences or divisions. Still, I think the loss of Owen Daniels is crippling here to Houston. As we all know, teams that play a cover-2 shell like the Colts are somewhat vulnerable to the combination fly route by the wide receiver and then the slot or TE post up the seam to pull a safety. Without Daniels, or even their first backup receiving tight end, also apparently out with injury, the Texans are very thin as far as number 2/3 receiving options they can use to put pressure on those safeties. With Stevie Slaton fumbling every time he touches the ball (literally true because he fumbles it the first time, and then Coach Kubiak has a seizure and benches him for the rest of the game) and Ryan Moats still only 5′8″, I’m not sure Houston’s offense is going to be clicking on all cylinders. They need to get Slaton on the field not for his running, but for his routes out of the backfield to find alternative ways to take pressure off of the outside wideouts Andre “God” Johnson and Kevin “Cut by the Bengals” Walter. Mario Williams was literally drafted to win these games, so we shall see if he can finally go out and do it. I doubt it.
CINCINNATI +3 over Baltimore
And we’ve come to the Bengals. Let’s get in the mood first with a quick shot of some Tide women wearin’ Crimson Tide linens:
Gotta love girls who wear heels to football games. As far as this game, despite fears of a blackout in Cincinnati – come on, Bengals fans, really? – I think the Bengs are being sold short. They match up exceptionally well with the Ravens in that they are stout against the run, they’ve already proven then can run against Baltimore’s D, and they have the ability to not only shut down Baltimore’s lone vertical threat in Derrick Mason (0 catches 3 weeks ago), but also exploit the Ravens’ vulnerabilities in their own secondary. Carson has a winning record against the Ravens in his career, and as ESPN’s AFC North blogger James Walker notes, has often been at his best against Baltimore. An interesting tidbit, the Ravens and Bengals are 1 and 2 in the NFL in takeaways since Marvin Lewis took over as head coach of the Bengals in 2003. While the turnover battle was split in their first matchup, 2-2, what seems to be consistently overlooked is the fact that the Bengals had dominated the entire football game. All people remember are the Cardiac Cats needing that last second drive to take the lead – and being aided by 2 Baltimore penalties along the way to ensure its success – but take a look at that box score. I mean 22-12 first downs, 403-257 yards, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession advantage. I know the Bengals have been poor off of byes in Marvin Lewis’ tenure – I believe the stat is 1-4-1 – but that’s also been because the teams have been poor in Marvin Lewis’ tenure. They’ve also been immature and Adam Duerson-like – namely, not mentally tough. This team is mentally tough, talented, and needed the week to get some guys healthy. I think the Ravens are a good team and they are desperate, but this is a home dog, a live home dog, looking to make its mark on the division for the first time in years. I can’t believe I’m saying this, it may come back to haunt me, but I believe in Carson. I believe…in the Bengs. Give me the points, but I don’t even need ‘em – Bengs outright, 24-20.
