It’s the first week of comparative box scores, yayy!!!! Flukes can happen in one week, but if something happens twice in a row, well, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s true – after all you could have played the Browns and Lions (hello Vikings) – but it certainly is enough now to help begin to form some factually based adjustments to our preseason assumptions. So a quick intro this week, and let’s take a look at what we’ve learned – and what we haven’t – through 2 weeks of NFL 2009:
What We’ve Learned:
1) Let’s start with what we can take away from the major showdown in San Diego between the Bolts and Ne’ermores. The Chargers are still a good football team, for one. For two, the Ravens are an awfully good football team. Now I did get a chance to see this game on NFL Network Replay – and I will be sure to point out if I’m making a statement about teams I have not actually seen this season, and only read box scores and game summaries – and I think we can safely say the following: first, despite giving up 26 points, the Ravens D is really good. However, they can be beaten deep – and consistently – but it takes a good QB who can spot the (frequent) single coverage as well as big, athletic receivers that can make the jump ball plays. You are not going to simply drive the ball down the field on this defense, SD knew it, and knew they could match up well down the field. Frankly, I could have seen them winning the game with a real running back (just a second on this one) and a healthy O-Line. Second, Darren “wow that dude is small” Sproles, is simply not an NFL starting running back. He is a magical return man. He is also a magical guy on screens. But if you’re gameplanning for this team with Sproles in the backfield, you KNOW you can stop him on the ground. He’s not MJD or Slaton part trois, he does not have the leg strength to break tackles, he has to be in space and avoid them. That’s fine, not saying he can’t be effective in spurts, but he can’t take a carry up the gut and get anything, he did not break a tackle all day once someone got his hands on him. I’m not sure the Chargers “need” LaDanian Tomlinson, but they sure as heck “need” a running back, not a scat back. Sproles will continue to be effective in fantasy purposes, but it’s going to be tough to win games against tough defenses with him starting at RB. Fortunately for SD, as I alluded to, Baltimore’s big defensive weaknesses are screens and deep balls – hello Sproles and tall wideouts! Third, and finally, Baltimore has a really good offense now. Cam Cameron is a hell of an O-Coordinator, and while Flacco certainly still makes mistakes under pressure, you are going to have to deal with a hellacious three-headed monster at RB in Maryland’s metropolis. Important note: specifically watched Michael Oher of Blindsided fame on about 20 plays. He cannot pass block against a speed rusher around the edge. He must get help there. He’s not particularly deft at handling the inside spin there either. I think that’s somewhere that Ravens opponents can really attack to get to Flacco going forward, despite Oher being a strong run blocker.
2) OK that was a really long (1), so I apologize, but that was a big-time game so I felt it was important to share some thoughts. For (2), let’s just say that Tennessee’s pass defense is … well, it’s not good. Both Pittsburgh and Houston found MAJOR “Hole in Zone” coverages these first two weeks – maybe missing Jim Schwartz a bit there after all? Before moving on, I also want to note here that we can be pretty sure Stevie Slaton is OK. I know Gary Kubiak is throwing him under the bus – and he did fumble twice – but the guy has gone up against the newly awesome Jets D (more on this later) and a Tennessee D which may or may not be aware that the forward pass has, in fact, been legalized. Houston gets JAX this week, and Slaton gets a “redemption” week.
3) Annnd here it is: the Jets D is awesome. I know I might be overreacting since the Texans may not be so awesome and the Pats are clearly not 2007’s Pats right now, but come on. The Jets lead the league in YPG allowed at a paltry 241, and also rank an impressive tied for 2nd in the underrated 1st downs allowed per game. They’ve given up 16 points – total – and they aren’t doing it with lucky turnovers at opportune times or an unsustainable 3rd down stop percentage (hello Seattle). I’m going to expand on this next week, but I believe there is a strong correlation between total yardage allowed and expected 3rd down percentage – this is a play off of the Football Outsiders proven assertion that 3rd down success does not carry over year-to-year relative to 1st and 2nd down performance. Essentially, if you’re good, you’re good, and if you’re not, you’re not, no matter what down it is. If you happen to be excessively better or worse than your standard production on 3rd down, well, it’s probably a fluke. That said, in a short 16 game season, it is certainly well within the realm of statistical probability that a team performs abnormally on 3rd down for a season, but generally speaking this should not happen. Basically, to get back to the point, the Jets D is not suffering from this or any other fluky problem, they’re really good, and really confusing. Consider, Rex Ryan’s defenses last season were in the top 10 in percentage of the time they rushed 3, 5, and 7 gentlemen – the only such team in the NFL. How’s a QB supposed to deal with pressure when he doesn’t know who, when, or from where it’s coming!?
4) Easy one here, Jamarcus “Fatso” Russell – and like the Pocket Amoeba (more on him later), Fatso will now simply be known as Fatso on this blog – cannot play QB in the NFL. He simply cannot. Can we get Merril Hoge on this? Can we get a Mark Schlereth overreaction using the fact that he was a SUPER BOWL WINNING OFFENSIVE LINEMAN (!) as evidence that he is correct? Jeez, when you actually need these guys flipping out on something where are they?
5) Drew Brees > OK. Do you think if life gave Drew Brees lemons he’d just say “F it, I’m making some sweet ass lemon sorbet” while the rest of us do-gooders are stuck with pigeon toes and a pitcher of sour lemonade?
6) Detroit really sucks. I mean they’re terrible. Minnesota essentially ran their C package out there last week, handing off to Adrian Peterson only 15 times in a game they led throughout the second half. Favre was 23 for 27 and basically throwing 3 yard outs and 4 yard ins all game. Literally, they toyed with this team. Stafford was terrible, and clearly is not ready to be a starting quarterback, a fact that Coach Schwartz has apparently opted to ignore when stating “Matt Stafford is our starting quarterback.” Detroit did everything they could to protect him, running time and again into the impenetrable wall that is the Vikings run D, but still Stafford sported only an 18-30, 152, 1 and 2 on the day. That defense is OK, but the offense is just, ugh. It’s become a trendy media pick to take Detroit to break their 19 – yes, 19, and somehow that is only 2nd in NFL history – game losing streak this week at home vs. the team that shall not be watched which resides in the nation’s capital. I’m not going to say it’s impossible just because I can’t watch Washington either, but the Indiginous Persons with the Roland Garros Pigmentation do have a strong defense, and how is Detroit planning on scoring? If I’m them, I literally deep bomb to MegaTron every single play and hope the TD’s outnumber the pick 6’s. It’s an interesting spread right now at 6.5, since I have to believe this game will be decided by less than that, but at the same time I can’t see the Lions actually winning. Blech.
7) Atlanta Falcons are a good football team. I know this to be true. It may seem premature after wins over Miami and Carolina, but take a look at that Carolina game again. That was the good Carolina, not the Jake Delhomme meltdown Carolina. Good win for them, nice bounce back for Ryan, if the Pats beat them this week that will be a real statement for them, not a bad job by ATL necessarily.
Seattle stinks without Hasselbeck, but I still think they’re the best team in that crapfest of a division with him. Consider, when he got hurt it was 13-3, but he had the Neon Green Eyed folk deep in enemy territory which quickly led to a TD without him, so really it was 13-10. Frank Gore broke a couple of shocking runs, but you can’t tell me that the Seahawks weren’t winning that game in the 2nd half with Hasselbeck. They were moving the football, and I think would have continued to do so with him. Seneca Wallace may be a nice guy and a solid mix up option, but the idea of a small, scrambling QB being a west coast offense pocket passer just doesn’t work. Seattle cannot contend without Hasselbeck.
9) Pittsburgh really can’t run the football. The Bears – as I ranted on last week – are certainly not the Great Wall of China on the line of scrimmage, and although the Titans are stout, the Steelers couldn’t even get a small sniff against them. I did see Rashard Mendenhall remind folks that he is still, in fact, in the NFL with a nice little 39-yard run, and perhaps this is the start of something for him and he can unseat Willie “Averages 1 YPC All Game and Then Possibly Breaks One” Parker as starting RB? I can dream.
10) Obligatory Bengals observation, here fittingly following the Steelers note considering they square off in a huge early season divisional battle this week: that Bengals D, as promised here last week, is really good. They aren’t forcing turnovers, but they essentially gave up 10 points last week to the prodigious Packers, including holding Greg Jennings to zero catches and a game-ending false start penalty. Now, ESPN – other than AFC North Blogger James Walker, who actually watches AFC North games so knows what he is talking about – rewarded the Bengals big win with a jump from…26 to 24 in the power rankings!!!! Really, ESPN, really? You think this team would lose to a certain team from the Potomac River Drainage Basin? Most fantasy sites will be writing ad infinitum this week about how “Willie Parker gets a breather this week with the Cincy defense,” etc., but um, sorry guys, there will be no Steeler running on this defense. They will complete some passes, probably a few after Roethlissandwich infuriatingly holds the ball for 25 minutes and shakes off 5 300 pound gentlemen, but they will not run. It’s going to be a good battle.
What We Haven’t Learned:
1) Is Carolina really bad? I’m not sure yet. Delhomme blew up vs. a good Eagles team, and then they played the Falcons very tough. I don’t think they’re that terrible. They may not be going 12-4 again – let’s be honest there’s no CHANCE they’re going 12-4 again – but I can certainly see this being an annoying 7-9 or 8-8 team that I wouldn’t want my contender playing down the stretch. I really need to watch the Sunday night game to be sure, as I have yet to get a good look at this team.
2) Can New England pull it together? Numerous publications are currently calling Tom Brady “jumpy” in the pocket, and I see it as well. Similarly, the O-Line seems awfully overrated, and they still can’t/don’t run. The defense is now also vulnerable. Good test vs. ATL this week will go a long way toward answering this question.
3) What of Houston, Jacksonville, and Miami? Many are eager to call the dogs on the Jaguars, but are they really done? They square off vs. Houston, a team I feel may be getting an overrated “recovery” award for their win vs. the Titans. I’ve never seen blown coverages like that from both sides so frequently, so I’m not sure how great an indicator that game really was. And the Dolphins, two tough losses to Atlanta and Indy – are they still feisty? And oh heyyyyy Ted Ginn! Just a week late with that breakout there…
4) Denver is about to go 3-0 (here come the Fatsos), will they be the worst 3-0 team in NFL history? Are they actually OK? I dare not say.
5) Chicago tried to make me believe they are good with a win over Pittsburgh after playing the Packers very tough despite Cutler being about as intelligent as a blond antelope. I’m not buying. If Jeff Reed makes two very makeable field goals – or indeed makes one – Pittsburgh wins this game just as I thought they would: unnecessarily close. Goddammit the Bears are who I thought they were! Aren’t they?
6) Now this is serious: could the Pocket Amoeba actually be an outstanding fantasy sleeper quarterback? Crappy team always throwing? Check. Random inclination to throw deep? Check. Me-First receiver wants TD’s? Double check!! (Winslow, Bryant when he comes back). Strong arm? Check. Inability to read defenses, check down, or do anything else required to stay close early in the game? Cheeeccccckkkk. Jon Kitna deuce??
7) Cowboys D vs. Pocket Amoeba? Zero sacks. Cowboys D vs. Pocket Mini-Maestro Manning? Zero sacks. What in the name of bermuda grass is going on here?
Is Buffalo good? Are they bad? Yo no se.
9) I’m getting tired. I can’t believe I’m still writing. I REALLY can’t believe you’re still reading!! Hey, thanks! I’ll give you a bonus ‘ick shot for that: helllooooo!
10) Just because we’re here doesn’t mean we have to say something about real football! I mean, I’ll tell you what we have not learned. We have not learned a damned thing about my fantasy team just because it’s 0-2, OK? Look at this article. LOOK AT IT! OK? I’m not “sweating the 0-2 blues,” OK? I’m the defending champion goddammit! So what if Kyle Orton is my starting quarterback! So what if I’m starting Julius Jones every week! Matt Berry said they would be good!!! (starting to shake) Matt Berry said they would be good. (starting to shake head and cry) Matt Berry said, matt ber, poop.
