before we get started here, i want to apologize for failing to post any NCAA picks this week. the reason for this is because, frankly, im not interested in any college games this week. despite ESPN’s desperate attempts to label this weekend as some sort of “payback” weekend in college football, the only payback game of significance is Texas-Texas Tech which should have all of the drama of a sesame street episode. Texas is an elite team, Texas Tech is nothing close to that, it’s going to be no contest. i don’t know what the spread is, don’t care, don’t want to watch. likewise, Cincinnati-Oregon State won’t be displayed on my television today, nor will any of the other “big games” like Cal-Minnesota, PSU-Temple, ECU-UNC, Utah-Oregon, or USC-Washington. BTW on that last one, I love stewart mandel (and sad i missed him at the IASIP production at the Beacon this week), but if he thinks Washington is going to beat USC, well, maybe that’s why he went 3-7 in STRAIGHT UP pick ‘em last week. come on stewart, you’re better than that. last year you were nailing it. then again, if washington DOES beat usc, well, nothing happens because nobody reads this blog. 
. i may tune into floridas drubbing of tennessee for a bit, but i dont think its going to be as fun as everyone thinks it is if only because tennessee just lost to ucla, so its plainly evident that they arent there yet, and their defense is too good to allow fla to post a 60spot, unless, of course, their offense allows fla ’s defense to score 21. not out of the realm of possibility. either way, florida romping a team they should beat doesnt seem like good viewing material to me, just adds fuel to the lane kiffin media bandwagon.
anyway, there is only one football league in this country that plays on sundays, on normal football fields, and that features the very best footballers in the world. it is the national football league. this week’s ‘ick sponsor is elsa pataky (hence non-test week picks AND ‘icks not SANS ‘icks), who is just about the hottest girl on the planet. click that, and if you get bored with my picks just stare at it for a while, then come back. and without further ado, lets move on to week 2 picks in the league… where they play… (to steal from mikey francesa)…
…
FOR PAY.
Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 2-1)
1) Indianapolis -3 over MIAMI
Inexplicably, the gentlemen on Showtime’s – not HBO’s anymore – Inside the NFL went with Miami to win OUTRIGHT in this game. Upon further inspection, the two lead culprits of this outlandish stance were Phil Simms and Warren Sapp. I exhale, smile, and look forward to a comfortable evening of breadwinning this Monday night.
2) Seattle +1 over SAN FRANCISCO
Call this the Football Outsiders “green game” of the week. They are quite confident in this Seattle victory, as am I. Long story short is, San Francisco is not a very good football team. Neither is Seattle, but they are the proverbial “nicest house in a crappy neighborhood,” and as far as neighborhoods go, well, the NFC West is akin to a cross between Liberty St. in Cincinnati and State St. Chicago. Yikes. Bottom line is, with Hasselbeck healthy (ish), an NFL-caliber receiving corps (as opposed to last season’s infection of the Michael Bumpus), and an underrated defense Seattle is more than capable of handling Shaun Hill et al, even if the absence of Leroy Hill means a few more yards for Frank “I didn’t invent the internet, that was Al” Gore.
3) Cincinnati +9 over GREEN BAY
I’m doing it! I’m not only taking 3 road teams, but one of them is my beloved Bengals! Look, I know I am probably somewhat deluded on this game, but are you telling me the Packers were going to be favored by 9 points if that tip drill to Brandon Stokley DIDN’T happen? I can almost convince myself this is a good thing, actually, forcing the Bengals to realize that last week’s performance simply wasn’t good enough, and I think they come out desperate for a win this week knowing they have the Steelers next week. It’s not frozen tundra time in GB yet (weather report says 71 degrees and sunny for Sunday), and it’s not like Green Bay looked like gangbusters in their win over the completely overrated Bears (rant on them later). If not for 4 ridiculous Cutler INT’s the Bears may well have won last week, and like Cincinnati, the Pack still needed a last few minutes drive for the winning score, and, in fact, were a tip drill away from losing. The Bengals defense is good. The Bengals offense is not this bad. As I mentioned earlier this week, Carson is at a career crossroads. I don’t necessarily think the Bengals WILL win outright this week, but I think they CAN. You give me 9 points in that scenario? I’ll take it. Go Bengs.
Regular Games (Season Record: 5-7)
4) Carolina +6 over ATLANTA
This was my wiseguy special, aka the game which the general betting public has completely overreacted to, all week, but then not only did the Sports Guy steal my thunder, but so, apparently, did underrated ESPN blogger Chad Millman! Sadly, his link escapes me, though it was Insider content anyway. Logic here being, of course, that there’s no way the Panthers are this bad and can turn it over that many times again. They were a 12-4 team last year! The thing that kept me from locking this, however, was the combination of the old “mainstream I’m outsmarting Vegas” pick which never works, and the fact that even while going 12-4 last season Carolina found time for a 45-28 thrashing in Atlanta. Not good. 6 points? Still too many for me to go ATL, however, based on their putrid week 1 performance.
5) JACKSONVILLE -3 over Arizona
I like this game. I like Jacksonville. I do not like Arizona. I do not like the corpse of Kurt Warner. I do not like that Boldin is still hobbled and Breaston is out, and although the Jaguars didn’t exactly prove they can stop a one-trick pony in giving up a bazillion yards and a score to Reggie Wayne last week, they still only gave up 14 points and I don’t think Warner is Peyton. Granted there was some divisional familiarity there, but also consider Arizona is a west-coast team traveling east, and are generally just issuing poopy vibes all around. Let the Matt Leinart watch begin!!
6) Oakland +3 over KANSAS CITY
Maybe I’m getting caught up in the Tom Cable mania, er, wait a minute, is there a Tom Cable mania? Of course there is! Cable was quoted as saying that this was the first time since he’d been with the Raiders that he really hurt after a loss. That’s 3 years and a lot of losses for those keeping track at home. The Raiders quotes, as well, were a little too lovey dovey to make me feel comfortable. A lot of “oh we played really hard” and “we felt like we had it” and “we played a great game, we just didn’t win.” A quick peek at Tom Cable’s illustrious coaching history shows an 11-35 record over 4 seasons at Idaho, followed by an unspectacular 2 year stint as UCLA’s offensive coordinator, followed by being an O-Line coach under the immediately thereafter fired Jim Mora Jr., and finally his Raiders career. This has one simultaneously wondering how much time Al Davis really spends reviewing resumes and being thankful that Cable doesn’t take losses too seriously. Anyway, I’m feeling the mania. I’ve got the Raiders fever. I’m drinking the Kool-Aid. All of it. Or maybe I’m just getting points against the Chiefs…
7) Minnesota -9.5 over DETROIT
I hate Detroit. I hate the quarterback that will not be named. Generic Adrian Peterson is ridiculous comment. Peter King picked the Lions outright. Those are the four thoughts that went through my head when this game came up. No more, no less.
PHILADELPHIA +1 over New Orleans
Now, I’m knowingly taking the Eagles with Kevin Kolb. Don’t ask me why – because I’m going to tell you anyway. The Birds are tough at home, their defense is > Carolina’s defense, which didn’t actually play too poorly other than the fact they had to deal with Jake Delhomme handing the Eagles the ball every 5th play. I’m not sure Kolb can light it up, but I think he can avoid 5 turnovers. I think. Also, I’m not sold on this new “Saints run D” after corralling the great Kevin “most boring name in the NFL award” Smith, so I think the Westbrook-McCoy combo could have some fun here. The Eagles are just better, this is real football not fantasy, remember, and if McNabb were playing I would lock this at the minus 3.5 to 5.5 that I know it would be.
9) WASHINGTON -9.5 over St. Louis
I will do my very best not to watch one second of this game.
10) BUFFALO -4.5 over Tampa Bay
Almost went with a “ditto” in the comments here, but that would be rude to the long-suffering Bills fanbase. They don’t deserve that. They deserve me telling them that Trent Edwards didn’t look so bad on Monday night, that their defense didn’t look so bad Monday night, that Fred Jackson and the O-Line didn’t look so bad Monday night, and that Leodis McKelvin didn’t look so bad Monday – well, three out of four ain’t bad. And bad is exactly what the Buccaneers are. I predict Byron “The Pocket Amoeba” Leftwich makes up for lost time getting sacked last week by going down 3-4 times with a fumble to Aaron Schobel, Aaron Maybin, and any other Aaron’s on the Buffalo roster.
11) DENVER -3 over Cleveland
This is just an emotional pick over two bad teams. I hope Denver wins so Cleveland fans can’t write about how crappy the Bengals are for losing to Denver, and basically for all other reasons centered around making the Bengals look better. Rationally, I do think they’re a little better than Cleveland and I like McDaniels more than Mangini in the mini-Belichik sans any credentials battle. Also, it’s tough to play in Denver. Altitude and all. Ugh, my heart is not in this game, let’s move on.
12) Baltimore +3 over SAN DIEGO
Finally! A good game! This one should be a real nasty affair, with two talented, physical teams lining up. The injuries suffered along the O-Line for the Bolts make the difference, for me, as Sproles will have little room to run, and I don’t know how they pass protect Rivers vs. this defense after failing vs. the Raiders last week. I know they’re on the road, but I like the Ravens offense to show again here as well. Flacco really does look talented, and I like a surprise day out of the wideouts here, specifically Mark Clayton. Those of you who enjoyed the 2 points from last week’s “breakout” player Teddy Ginn Jr., take note. Ray Rice should do well on screens and dumpoffs as well. I am a tad fearful of the whole sleeping giant thing with the Chargers, but they still have Norv Turner, and LaDanian “Charmin’ Soft” Tomlinson will be on the sidelines – though that may not be a bad thing.
13) Pittsburgh -3 over CHICAGO
Ok, you’ve waited for it. Here it is. The freaking Bears freaking suck. OK? They suck. They were 9-7 last year, 7-9 the year before that. The vaunted Bears D? Sure maybe they’re good in fantasy because of Devin Hester, but they ranked 21st last season and 28th the season before that. What the f am I missing? They have a bunch of no-talent ass clowns on the O-Line and at WR, they have a good TE (Oooooh scary!), a QB who hates throwing to TE’s and instead reminds one of all of the BAD things about the QB who shall not be named as opposed to any of his Super Bowl winning tendencies, and a Cover-2 shell defense that is routinely shredded vs. the run. Now Urlacher, Mr. Overrated himself, is hurt and we are all just noticing that Lovie Smith = Romeo Crennel after a year of SlimFast shakes. He even wears the two earpiece headset! That fake punt last week was just, I mean it was beyond belief! In short, they do not threaten on offense. They do not threaten on defense. If Devin Hester doesn’t break 3 td’s game by himself they do not win against good teams. The Steelers, even without Polamalu – who is NOT, btw, overrated – are a good team. I could see them blowing this one out if only they ever did that, but it’s the Steelers, so it will be unnecessarily close towards the end and I will have to sweat this line out. God I hate the Bears, I hate their media attention, they freaking suck. Bring back Ditka.
14) NY Giants +3 over DALLAS
Inexplicable fact 1: Dallas, who led the NFL in sacks last year, could not sack the Pocket Amoeba one time last week. Inexplicable fact 2: Eli Manning is the proud author of arguable the greatest play in Super Bowl history, despite not being able to throw a 12 yard in or a 15 yard out or a 20 yard anything. Inexplicable fact 3: Tom Coughlin once gave goal line carries to Reuben Droughns – for almost a full season mind you, REUBEN DROUGHNS! – over Brandon Jacobs. Inexplicable fact 4: Steve “not Steve Smith” Smith – he who was a number 3 wideout his senior year for the USC freaking Trojans – is a number 1 wideout in the NFL. Inexplicable fact 5: Wade Phillips is still the Cowboys head coach. I don’t know why I’ve listed these for you, I just find them interesting. As far as the game, I still think the Giants are better than Dallas, so I’m taking these 3 points with glee as I root for punts off the new scoreboard and Tony Romo sandwiches between Umenyiora and Tuck.
15) TENNESSEE -6.5 over Houston
I actually like this Houston team, but that week 1 performance was terrifying. I really don’t have any insight yet as to whether that was the Texan offense self-combusting or the Jet defense totally breaking out yet, nor does anyone, but needless to say this is one of the games I’m going to be watching intently this week. Tennessee is one rough customer, so if Houston can answer some questions here that would go a long way. That said, I think Tennessee, at home, angry after that Steeler game with a 10-day preparation window is a tall task for any team, let alone one with so many questions to answer.
16) New England -3 over NY JETS
Despite the fact that this is the last game listed, I almost locked this one up. I don’t think the Pats offense was all that poor on Monday night, they just seemed to shoot themselves in the foot a few times, something that will happen with a quarterback starting his first game in a full year. Granted the Pats D is no steel curtain, if you will, but like the masses, I have to believe Belichik can come up with something to confuse a rookie QB who wasn’t asked to do much beyond throw circle routes out of the backfield and hit guys in blown coverages last week. If the Jets win this one certainly it would send a message. In other news, I read somewhere this week – and I forget where I truly apologize to whoever wrote this – that Rex Ryan has just replaced Andy Reid as the NFL head coach you’d least like to see coming out of the bathroom as you were heading in after he’d been in there for 10 minutes. Priceless. Kind of like her.
On with the games!
