Picks sans ‘icks – Test Week

Well, even though the site doesn’t really work yet, I wanted to get this week’s NFL Picks up in print for tabulation purposes.  Since I am largely talking to myself at this point, I’ll just throw in a mini-snippet per game.  We will keep track of 3 “Lost-Key Locks” (Lock it up, throw away the key…) and then the “Regular” picks from each week.  NCAA Football picks starting next week.  All lines from bookmaker.com if gambling were legal, home teams in CAPS:

Lost-Key Locks

1) NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over Buffalo

Easily the number 1 lock of the week.  NWE beat Buffalo 20-10 and 13-0 last season without Brady, now the Bills are coming off a preseason where the first-team offense scored zero TD’s and they just fired their offensive coordinator.  Oh, and it’s Belichick and Brady vs. Jauron and Edwards.  Ouch, babe.

2) BALTIMORE -12.5 over Kansas City

I mean, fired offensive coordinator, horrific O-Line, road game, banged up Matt Cassel or Brody Croyle (!), and a 3-4 defense that doesn’t have 3-4 personnel?  You almost can’t blame Todd Haley for joking that since he has to open AT the most ferocious defense in the league that the NFL should delay opening week.  He was joking, right?

3) Dallas -5.5 over TAMPA BAY

This pick is entirely based upon the fact that Byron Leftwich is starting this game and DeMarcus Ware is starting this game.  This combination equals sacks, fumbles, and general chaos in the Bucs backfield where Cadillac Williams (!?) has apparently earned the starting RB role.  Not a good sign for D. Ward owners…  Another new offensive coordinator (within the last 10 days) has promised more deep balls.  Deep balls take time to develop.  Refer to sentence one of this paragraph.

Regular Games (No Particular Order)

1) Minnesota -3.5 over CLEVELAND

Huge step down in confidence from game 1 to game 2, but that’s just because of Favre.  I hate him and Mangini knows just how terrible he is these days.  Still, if you said it were Tarvaris Jackson at the helm you’d think this was going to be a Vikings cakewalk since 2 yard spike incompletions hurt a spread less than pick-and-six gunslings.  Memo to Mangidiot: nobody cares if its Quinn or DA, the rest of the team stinks.  Minny comfortably covers – unless Favre goes all Favre…wait a minute, and this game is no longer a throw away the key game.  Didn’t change a word, just copied and pasted it down here.

2) San Diego -9.5 over OAKLAND

What a ridiculous organization Oakland is.  Should we even expect to see DHB (Darrius Hayward-Bey) on the field?  Poor Darren McFadden.  The only reason this isn’t a lock game en route to a potential Charger Super Bowl run is because of McFadden potentially going nuts and Norv Turner in a road game.

3) Miami +4.5 over ATLANTA

I’ll take the points here just because I think the teams are about equal and I trust Sparano not to let any game this season get too out of control.  I could see a mini Ted Ginn breakout here, fantasy owners.
4) CAROLINA +2.5 over Philadelphia

Home dogs are always the Vegas smart money, and in this case it’s the defending NFC Champ as a home dog.  Eagles will miss Jim Johnson more than they may think (very sad story, btw), and I could see a nice game for the Panthers rushing attack and Steve Smith.  Something about this Eagles team just doesn’t feel right, though if you were looking to actually put money on games this weekend this would NOT be one I would pick.

5) CINCINNATI -5.0 over Denver

Full disclosure: I am a rabid Bengals fan.  That said, I loved this line when it opened 6 months ago at Denver -3.5.  I continued to love it all the way through Cincinnati -2.5 to the point where it was going to be a lock.  The problem was, it didn’t stop moving.  This line has moved, you got it, 8.5 points since it was opened!  That’s obscene!  Obscene to the point where Chad Millman wrote an article about it on ESPN.com and to the point where even though I really expect the Bengals to win here I am terrified of the line.

6) HOUSTON -4.0 over New York Jets

Don’t love Rex Ryan (he inherited that defense, nothing more), and don’t love rookie QB’s on the road in their first start.  Even if this rookie does look pretty good.  I also think Ryan’s schemes are somewhat complex, and it’s going to take these Jets a minute to get it all sorted out.  Plus they don’t have Ravens personnel.  I could see a blown coverage or two en route to a big Andre Johnson day.

7) Jacksonville +6.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

Do not bet this game.  Jax matches up well with Indianapolis, always has, but this seems like the perfect line.  Indy probably wins by a TD and covers, but I’ll take the points on a hunch.  Go MJD!

NEW ORLEANS -13.5 over Detroit

Love New Orleans in this game, along with the rest of the world.  This is overwhelmingly the most popular Eliminator pool pick over on ESPN, with more than 40% of contestants taking the Saints as their week 1 survivor.  I can’t blame them, I just think 13.5 points is a lot of points for a team with MegaTron picking up garbage TD’s against a crappy defense, so I can’t lock this one up.  Still, I’d put money here.

9) ARIZONA -6 over SAN FRANCISCO

Reason number 12235436356 why Vegas is smarter than you: they know that despite the fact that it’s very chic to say Arizona is going to collapse this season in Britney Spears 2003-esque fashion – and they very well might – that the Cardinals are still plenty potent on both sides of the ball to continue to lay smackdowns on the motivated yet talent-shy 9ers.  I was hoping for a fool’s minus 3 line here, but Vegas is on top of it, so I could theoretically see SF covering a la last seasons 29-24 Cardinal win in Glendale.  That said, this is one of the regular games I’d still put my money on.

10) Washington +6.5 over NY GIANTS

Too many points for a divisional showdown like this.  Eli stinks, and the Giants won’t be able to run on this defense until the second half.  As such, I see a close, ugly game where Washington covers.  Call it 17-13 or 20-17 Giants.

11) SEATTLE -7.5 over St. Louis

Alllllmost a lock.  Decided against it when I remembered a) Jim Mora is the head coach of the Seahawks, b) he’s an idiot, c) he is giving Edgerrin James the goal-line carries, d) a+b=c.  Plus, we know Spagnuolo is going to try to get heat on Hasselbeck, and if he does, well, Hasselbeck is going to get hurt.  As a proud multiple Hasselbeck owner, I hope this is not the case.

12) Chicago +4.5 over GREEN BAY

I hated making this pick, but the line just floated too high.  Like Vegas, like Football Outsiders, like ESPN, and like (gasp!) Peter King, I like the Packers – a lot.  But the fact is they are breaking in a new 3-4, even if it did look good in preseason, and these things usually have a few hiccups along the way.  I like Greg Olsen to score in this game at least once, and let’s say a Devin Hester return TD as well.  Pack, 24-23.