The B Flow » NFL

NFL Picks and ‘icks – Week 13

tide182 — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:06:29 +0000

And we’re back!! After a one week Thanksgiving hiatus that was really 2 due to our lack of full picks in Week 11, the B Flow’s NFL Picks and ‘icks are set to make their triumphant return to the grand stage. Much has happened since we last walked through the world of football, though perhaps the nothing more relieving than what went down just this past Thursday when the University of Oregon’s cheerleaders – long considered the best looking group in collegiate sports by the athletes themselves – made it to the Rose Bowl thanks to their football team’s thrilling win over Oregon State. In the professional world, we’ve seen Drew “I’m Awesome” Brees doing a lot of this, even when he’s playing the Patriots. No truth to the rumor that our editors forced us to take a week off due to miserable picks performance and incendiary artwork like this side by side which resulted in Bills owner Ralph Wilson coming to his senses and firing Dick Jauron. We’ve also probably seen the last of our beloved Fatso, seen here in his Halloween costume, with the immortal Bruce “Easily The Most Unrecognizable Player in the League Who Immediately Becomes Ridiculously Hate-able When He’s Playing Your Team and Doing the Tebow Fistpump All Game” Gradkowski taking over the starting role. Fortunately, the Mangenius is still on command of the Cleveland armies, so the number one rated picture in BFlow history will be able to make another cameo today. ENOUGH JIBBER JABBER! Here is this week’s ‘ick, the lovely – and reverse cuckolded – Elin Nordegren: (is Tiger insane? Maybe not…)

So now let’s review a week 13, a week 13 in the league where they play…

…

FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 19-14)

1) CINCINNATI -13 over Detroit

The regular reader(s) of these picks know that we here at the B Flow are Bengals supporters. He/She/They also know that we almost always pick the Bengals game last in an attempt to walk through the other games first to get all of the ridiculousness out of our system. Not this week. It’s not so much that we’ve been sold on the “Striped Ones” – as per Peter King’s weekly set of bogus selections – recent performances as we are completely sold on the Lions’ recent performances…being terrible. The team is currently ranked dead last in FO team efficiency rankings, pulling in at 30th on offense and 32nd on D. They’ve got a head coach who appears to fawn over Kid Rock, and an injured quarterback and star wideout. The Ocho has been begging for a few more balls, and I think he gets them this week. “Striped Ones,” big, though if they do not come through count on an enraged dissertation of the idiocy of one Bob “OK, let’s hit ‘em with another run up the middle” Bratkowski’s playcalling…

2) New England -4.5 over MIAMI

Around this time you may be wondering: this gentleman just picked the Cincinnati Bengals as his number 1 lock of the week coming off of a moral defeat at home to Cleveland and a real one on the road in Oakland. You think perhaps you might be better off going with Ray Romano’s selections, which NFL.com has graciously posted over on their website. Everybody does love New England here, though, so feel safe for now. Enraged/Embarrassed Belichick/Brady + Injured Dolphins QB/RB/DT/OL + the Bills (!!!) providing a blueprint for marine beatdowns = Patriots Day all over again. I don’t even think we needed to make a lock on this one, the door is just welded shut.

3) San Diego -13.5 over CLEVELAND

We have been accused before of being a little to heavy on the favorites, but this was simply an opportunity we could not pass up. The only possible reason the Chargers were not given a full two touchdowns over Cleveland is this man (note he is even losing to the Chiefs in this picture):

Still, as Mike Tanier amusingly points out in his excellent weekly picks rundown, the Bolts have scored 106 points over the past 3 weeks whereas the Brownies have scored only 102 over the last 10. Mangenius can concoct schemes to keep him in games against the Bobby Bratkowski’s of the world, but the Norvenator excels at steamrolling inferior opponents where game management doesn’t come into play. And now the obligatory MANGENIUS images!!!! We’ll put it up to a vote, do we go with a new one??

Striking similarity to the man, isnt it? Or do we stick with the original, the fan favorite, the one, the only: MANGINEON!

Browns fans everywhere, in the words of the immortal Joe Benigno, say it with me, “aww da pain.”

Regular Picks (Season Record: 68-55-1)

1) Minnesota -3 over ARIZONA

We’ve just realized several things. First, we haven’t given you enough of Tiger’s cuckquean, so here you are and here you are:

Secondly, we’ve got to get a move on with these picks!! This one is pretty simple as no Kurt Warner equals no win for the Redbirds as the QBWSNBN’s march to redemption continues. WHOAWHOAWHOA, late addition. Did you know ANOTHER Viking was just pulled over for going over 100MPH on a highway? What in the hell is going on over there? Are they racing to be the first to get down to Orlando to “comfort” dear Elin post golf-club wielding assault? I’m putting sources on this and will have some fun updates in this weeks Musings.

2) CAROLINA -5 over Tampa Bay

FINALLY. FINALLY. Finally we no longer have to witness Jake Delhomme’s miserable mug every Sunday, as it appears Matty Moore will get the start in Carolina this week. John Fox may finally realize that if he simply runs the ball 3 out of every 4 plays he will be the head coach of a winning football team. I understand DeAngelo Williams may not play, but as long as Jonathan Stewart does it won’t matter. I understand Chad Millman has told us that the “sharps” are all over Cleveland and Tampa these days, and the Bucs may kill me yet with a late cover, but I actually think the Delhomme for Moore swap has the Panthers as an underbought value this week. As a final piece of evidence, this was one of only two games this week where each of the Inside the NFL guys didn’t take the same team to win the game. The first? Phil “My Blonde Hair Bleach Prevents My Brain From Getting Oxygen” Simms took the Bills while Collinsworth and Sapp (I know, I know) took New York. Minus-1 for Phil. The second? Phil’s going Gasparilla!!! You know where we’re going.

3) Denver -5 over KANSAS CITY

I don’t like the Tribal Leaders, I don’t like coaches who spend excessive time in 8by8 offices with Charlie Weis (see Mike Tanier link earlier), and although I don’t love Josh McD, I will always take this, ridiculous as it is, over this, steer clear of that man…

4) PITTSBURGH -14.5 over Oakland

Apparently Mike Tomlin has had quite enough of the Steelers’ recent 3-game losing streak, as he has announced his team will be “unleashing hell” here in December. I’m not sure what that means exactly, but the last time I heard anyone utter the phrase “unleash hell” something like this went down. I believe Stewie Griffin may also have “unleashed hell” once on a playground against rival baby Bertram. Here is Lamar Woodley’s take wherein we learn, sadly, there will be no flaming arrows, only blitzing linebackers. To be fair, it’s awfully hard to envision Omar Epps,

reprising Russell Crowe’s Maximus now, isn’t it? No matter, easy wins over Oakland come with make-it-at-home (in Pittsburgh) instructions – the team has won 10 road games in the last 10 years – so no flaming arrows required.

5) Houston PK over JACKSONVILLE

We’ve beaten the whole Jaguars non-home field home field theme to death around here, so let’s take a peek at this from the Texans perspective. 4 weeks ago they were 5-3, coming off 3 straight wins including one over red-hot Cincinnati on the road, and the talk of the pregame shows. Now they are mired in a 3 game losing streak plus an apparently unhelpful bye, under .500, and staring at swirling rumors regarding the continued livelihood of their head coach. What, really, has changed in those 4 weeks? The Texans lost two games to the 11-0 Colts by a combined 11 points, and lost a prime time thriller at home to smoking Tennessee. While it is true a real title contender probably would have won at least one or two of those games, I’m not sure how many other fringe wild card contenders were going to do a whole lot better. With Jacksonville here, then Seattle, St. Louis and Miami it is entirely conceivable that 4 weeks forward from now we will once again be back where we were 4 weeks ago, with the Texans in the thick of the wild card race and the talk of the town. It will take a win over New England – hopefully for them a resting New England – in the final week to get in, but we do believe that march back towards relevance begins here with a comfortable win over the paper Jaguars.

6) Tennessee +6 over INDIANAPOLIS

It has become a bit of a chic pick to take the Colts to fall here, ending their run at 16-0. That said, when have the Colts really ever been interested in 16-0? The Colts are doing what the Colts do, finding themselves just one win away from an NFL-record 7th consecutive season with 12 or more wins. They already hold the record with their current 6-year streak. This year, however, they’ve done it not so much by being dominating, but by being good enough and quite lucky on more than one occasion. We at the Flow respect Peyton Manning, but do not like him, never have from his days at Tennessee. As the Sports Guy pointed out in his latest Power Poll, the Colts seem to be getting all of the breaks these days and it is infuriating. I’m not sure if Vince Young’s re-found magic will pull out a win here or if Peyton will get a few more calls combined with his own astounding excellence and find a way to get to 12-0, but I do like the idea of it being close. Another chance for the Flow’s “Colts Don’t Blow Out Intra-Division Opponents As Often” postulate to be proven correct.

7) Philadelphia -5 over ATLANTA

The Falcons without Matt Ryan or Michael Turner are not interesting, and despite the Eagles’ wariness, it’s hard to even see this game being particularly competitive. Of more interest to me and possibly you is that the B Flow once mistakenly woke up one Mrs. McNabb at about 4am at the Borgata in Atlantic City when we mistook her room number for ours. Here’s what we were up against:

Yikes! Needless to say security and alcohol were NOT involved.

WASHINGTON +9.5 over New Orleans

I will not…yes I will, this is the proverbial letdown game, blah blah blah. Of perhaps greater importance is the fact that somehow, some way, despite Chris Cooley himself being baffled as to how plays are called over there in the Potomac Drainage Basin, the Indigenous Peoples have become a Vegas darling, using their strong defense and game draining confusion on offense to cover spreads around the country. You see? The Shermanator lives!!!

9) CHICAGO -9.5 over St. Louis

Obligatory Jay Cutler huge stat game to make everyone think he’s good again. Now, we were about to link to a standard Jay Cutler the brat picture, like this:

but we’ve just discovered that Jay shares his moniker with a bodybuilder, the one, the only JAY CUTLER! While a Google search for “Jay Cutler” brings up way more info on the Broncos signal caller, if you pop on over to Google Image you will see that the weightlifter dominates the scene. Maybe now I am starting to understand some of the emotional problems Jay is going through. I would hate to Google Image myself only to see some dude up there all oiled up and jacked. Gross. Jay Cutler, you sir, are gross. Both of you.

10) San Francisco -1 over SEATTLE

The Seahawks were pronounced dead to me a long time ago this season. I will note again how much we Bengals fans are LOVING how miserable TJ Houshmandouche is over on the left coast.

That’s right, Teej, if you squint hard enough you can see the AFC North standings… Get a haircut.

11) NY GIANTS +2.5 over Dallas

It’s General Coughlin’s last stand as the 6-5 G-Men look to salvage their playoff lives vs. the suddenly hot despite losing a hot girl as their spokeswoman Cowboys. I’m not sure why I like the Giants here other than that they are a live, home dog, and they are desperate. Desperate teams generally play well if they have any quality (see Baltimore last week), and I think the Giants still have some fight left despite the Antonio Pierce absence and Eli injury. Do not bet this game with us, only against us. MANNING FACE!

12) Baltimore +3 over GREEN BAY

THERE ARE SO MANY GAMES IN THESE NON BYE WEEKS! My fingers hurt, and due to a new NFL rule I will no longer be able to play this week or next. Fortunately, I’ve lied to my editors (there aren’t any so it’s easy), and will push through and continue next week. As for this week, well, this is actually a really good football game between two really good football teams. Football. And you know how we deal with those, limited comments as you’ve probably read all about it yourselves in the standard previews. Fun factoid for you though, before we go, did you know that for all of the fanfare we’re sure to get during Ray Lewis’ intro etc., it is actually the Packers defense that ranks number 1 in the NFL per the Football Outsiders statistics. That combined with no Terrell Suggs, home field, and a new found running game behind Ryan Grant lead me to take…the Ravens. Because I can. And because they’re desperate. And most importantly, because of reverse jinx factors… ENJOY THE GAMES!

Peter King – Not a Math Whiz

tide182 — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:12:32 +0000

In his MMQB this week Peter King shockingly dismisses Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th down late in last night’s game as “I’m-smarter-than-they-are-hubris.” The title of his article goes so far as saying: “No Matter Which Way You Dissect It, Bill Belichick Made the Wrong Call.” What is especially amusing here, is his colleague Joe Posnanski’s analysis of the way Peter King “chose to dissect it” – quoted from Joe’s excellent article here:

“Quick Update: I was reading my colleague Peter King’s take on the Belichick call, and I think this is telling. He had this sentence in there:

Let’s place the odds of Brady getting two yards at 60, 65 percent. The odds of Manning going 72 yards to score a touchdown in less than two minutes … that’s maybe 35 percent.

So, Peter was giving the Patriots about a 60-65 percent chance of winning the game if they went for it, and about 65 percent chance of winning if they punted. So that’s about even, right? Of course, it’s not even because the Colts did not have a 100 percent chance of winning if the Patriots failed on fourth down — not even close to 100 percent chance. As we have discussed, there was a reasonable chance that the Patriots could keep them out of the end zone. And there was also a chance that the Colts would score too quickly and the Patriots would have time to score themselves.

So even though Peter compared the Belichick move to Grady Little’s Pedro Martinez follies — “I hated the call … it smacked of I’m-smarter-than-they-are hubris” — his own math suggests the Patriots’ best chance to win the game was to go for it.”

This is just too priceless. Peter King has written an entire article on how dumb Belichick’s call was, and then using his own percentages created a scenario wherein Belichick made the statistically correct call. Thank you SO MUCH Joe Posnanski for pointing this out, literally made my day.

NFL Picks and ‘icks – Week 10

tide182 — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 21:20:20 +0000

In this week’s New York Review of Books, Michael Kimmelman writes a rueful, if not quite disparaging, piece on all of the new ballparks going up around the country. While the article itself is an interesting read for those who may be concerned, within the piece Kimmelman relates an anecdote about the early New York Metropolitans. The Mets, as many are aware, were an expansion franchise in 1962 and proceeded to set records of futility throughout their first seven seasons before coming out of absolutely nowhere to become the Miracle Mets of ‘69, a team that won the World Series. On opening day of 1969, however, the Mets squared off against a new expansion team, the Montreal Expos, and in apparent continuation of form lost the ball game. A lone Mets fan – who later became known as “The Sign Man” over at Shea – held up a placard that, after the opening day loss, read “Wait ‘Til Next Year.” To fans of most other franchises, though perhaps still not to followers of the Mets, this may seem a bit hasty of a dismissal considering 99.38% of the schedule had yet to be played, but to fanatics who had endured through 7 of the most awful seasons in professional sports history, the dismal outlook was hardly a stretch. For fans of the Cincinnati Bengals, then, it would not have been unheard of – after 18 of 19 losing seasons and one playoff game where their star player blew out his knee on his very first throw – for a “Wait ‘Til Next Year” attitude to have been adopted following their inexplicable last second collapse vs. Denver in Week 1. A funny thing has happened since then, though. The Bengals, perhaps following the ‘69 Mets before them, have gone 6-1, become one of the more mentally tough teams in the league, and this week find themselves in the most important football game of a weekend which also includes a Pats-Colts showdown. Football, like baseball, is a funny game. Without further ado, then, let’s turn to a quick look at this week’s ‘icks, the Ben-Gals in honor of the showdown in Pittsburgh:

Thanks, girls. And now to a week 10 in the league where they play…

…

FOR PAY.

Lost-Key Locks (Season Record: 17-10)

1) New England +3 over INDIANAPOLIS

Why not just go ahead and start with the sexiest game of the week, the seemingly annual – or even semi-annual – showdown between two of the league’s most recognizable faces (Tom Brady and Peyton Manning) and successful franchises. In general, we spend less time previewing the very best games, as we assume you’ve probably read a preview or two in your internet travels this week. Suffice to say, there has been adequate media coverage already. Just so you don’t think I’m throwing darts completely at random, however, I will quickly highlight the reasons everyone else has already stated for the Pats cover. A) The Colts injuries in the secondary are going to be a major problem against a rapidly returning to form Brady/Moss/Welker/et. al. Pats offense, B) The Colts have hardly looked like world beaters on offense in squeaking by the Texans and 49ers in the last two weeks, and other than putting up 31 on a shell-shocked Arizona team on Sunday Night a few weeks ago have generally not looked exceptional on offense all season, and C) I firmly believe that, despite the return of Donald Brown this week, the Colts lack the third playmaker on offense necessary to keep up with a Pats team that is going to score. Pats win here outright, though I’m sure Peyton will do something incredible to make it exciting until the end.

2) New Orleans -13.5 over ST. LOUIS

If you are a conspiracy theorist, feel free not to come along for the ride with me on this game. I honestly have no idea how the Saints are less than two touchdown favorites in a dome – any dome – against a team that has been outscored on AVERAGE this season 27.6 to 9.6. That’s right, the Rammies average line this season would be plus-18, that’s why I feel comfortable taking one of the best teams in football at the relative bargain of 13.5. I understand Steven Jackson may have a nice day, and I understand that the Saints have looked vulnerable versus power running attacks in the last two weeks, but the Rams simply aren’t the power running attack that Miami or Carolina is, and more importantly, they lack any other redeeming quality to keep them even remotely close should, say, New Orleans load 9 in the box.

3) MIAMI -10 over Tampa Bay

I thought about a few options here as you will soon see below, but in the end I had to take the desperate home team against a rookie quarterback. I understand somehow Josh Freeman and co. came back to beat Green Bay last week – I will never understand that game, ever – but I’m just not buying. Tampa being 30th in the NFL in Rushing YPG Allowed, and an amazing dead last in FO’s rankings, does not portend well for the marine smugglers. No creamsicles this week seals the deal, Miami in a painful rout.

Regular Games (Season Record: 54-46-1)

1) Baltimore -11 over CLEVELAND

We really don’t even need to talk about this game (desperate good team with mediocre record vs. lame duck divisional opponent in prime time), and I’m running a little late for an obligation as well, so let’s just leave you with a fun image on this one:

2) MINNESOTA -16.5 over Detroit

Normally this would be the time for us to post the Flow’s WTE divisional standings, but frankly we’re so upset with the success of the WTED teams against the spread recently that we are boycotting the posting of standings until things return to normal, hopefully after this week. In other news, though it won’t be an issue here, do recall our warning our a few weeks ago regarding the potential frailty of this Viking team. If they could just push the pause button right now and play the playoffs and Super Bowl as currently made up, I’d take them for a true SB favorite. In the real world, however, there are 8 games of regular season to go before they get to that point and the injuries are already starting to mount up…

3) NY JETS -7 over Jacksonville

I will never forgive the Jacksonville Jaguars for giving up 15 points in the last 2:32 to the Kansas City freaking Chiefs to ruin their covering of the 6.5 spread and as a result 3 of my various parlays last weekend. They even gave up a 54-yard bomb to Chris F’ing Chambers up 18 with 2:32 to go!!!! To be clear, this is not a buy on the Revolting Blob and the Jets, this is a hard sell on the Pussycats.

4) Denver -3.5 at WASHINGTON

I understand that the Indigenous People’s defense is excellent and that they are at home, what I don’t understand is all of the hullabaloo about them being underrated. Look, people, this team has 2 wins and they are over St. Louis and Tampa Bay. They’ve already lost to Detroit and Kansas City – at home! – this season, and while Captain Neckbeard and Co. are certainly no world beaters – you know our views on the subject – the Broncos defense is pretty good, and Brandon Marshall and the rest of the offense are plenty good enough to win this game 17-10. Let’s get a gratuitous shot of Sherman in here for old times sake and just in case some of you were still thinking of going Skins:

Oh, and here he is coaching from our nation’s capital:

Whoa! Is that a human?

5) TENNESSEE -7 over Buffalo

Another simple one as we fly through here: Chris Johnson + Vince Young + Bills Rush “D” = Uh-Oh, Buffalo. If you want more to think about on this game try this very thought-provoking comparison:

6) Atlanta -1.5 over CAROLINA

Atlanta’s head coach gets in fights to protect his team. That’s all I have on that, I’m not really sure if I support that or not. As far as the rest of the game, I do like what Carolina is starting to do in terms of getting their running game going. Sadly, as long as Forrest Delhomme is still their starting quarterback neither I nor Steve “No Longer the Real Steve Smith” Smith can pick the Panthers to win a game, and 1.5 isn’t exactly enough to “take the points” here.

7) OAKLAND -2 over Kansas City

The return of Fatso! It has been so lonely over here in the B Flow offices without him involved, and frankly we’re so ecstatic to see him back we’ve gone ahead and taken the Raiders here in the worst game of 2009. Right now, Fatso has a QB rating lower than his completion percentage, which may not be particularly noteworthy except for the fact that his completion percentage checks in at a cool 48.4%. With a current rating of 48.3, it will certainly be interesting to follow this numbers competition throughout the rest of the season. Other fun games to play are Sacks+Interceptions vs. Completions, Sacks+Interceptions Season vs. QB Rating Season, Incompletions Single Game vs. Yards Passing, and finally, YPA Passing vs. YPC Rushing, including sacks.

ARIZONA -8 over Seattle

If you read the Flow’s musings from earlier this week and also linked earlier in this article you know that the Blue/Neon Men Group is dead to us. You would also know, from those musings, that Peter King thinks the Cardinals are “still dangerous.”

That’s right, NFL-mannn, THEY ARE DANGEROUS! (BITE!)

9) SAN DIEGO -1 over Philadelphia

Moving right along now we find a pretty good one in the 4:15 time slot between the Bolts and Birds. According to Football Outsiders statistics the Eagles are the 2nd most schizophrenic team in the league, being only slightly more predictable than the Tennessee Flaming Chris Johnsons. I suppose that is what happens when you lose to Fatso but also beat other NFL teams. I’m not particularly comfortable with this pick either way, but like last week, I trust the arm of Philip Rivers to come down the field late if necessary more than I do that of the “Spikemaster Flex,” Donovan McNabb. Plus, we are one Chargers win away here from a) Peter King announcing the Chargers are dangerous, b) Chargers Super Bowl talk resurrecting followed by a missing persons notice being sent out for LaDanian Tomlinson so that CBS can fill quotas of sadfaced sideline shots of “injured” players, and c) the Michael Vick bandwagon potentially forming. Mike Tanier also points out that this is the widely anticipated showdown between two of the game’s elite clock management gurus, Mr. Norv “Uhhh” Turner and the Honorable Andy “Walrus” Reid. Bill Simmons goes so far as to suggest an amusing split screen for the two of them as the clock winds down in each half. This should be fun.

10) GREEN BAY +3 over Dallas

OK, Packers, I’m giving you one more shot. You’re at home. You’re a live dog. You’re facing a Cowboys team that I’m not convinced is actually as good as they seem to be, and probably are due for a loss somewhere along the line. If you go back to that Mike Tanier link above you will note the Packers, despite having an excellent offense and defense, lead the league in sacks allowed and penalties, are terrible on all coverage units, and have been poor on 4th down. In general, that’s not how you win football games, though if they can curtail those issues for just this week (and maybe longer!) they’re certainly good enough elsewhere to win here. I’m not completely selling Green Bay Packers: playoff team yet.

11) Cincinnati +7 over PITTSBURGH

And we’ve come to this. We were all set to preview this game for everyone, but then saw that it had already been played out on Madden over on ESPN and the Steelers won 34-24. Of course, this was deeply saddening to the B Flow, but as we gave the box score a melancholy click something caught our eye: Jerome Simpson, 1 catch, 5 yards, 1 TD. Jerome Simpson? This Jerome Simpson? This cannot be! Because all Bengals fans know that that Jerome Simpson isn’t even dressing for this week’s game, rather he and his 2nd round draft status spot have been taken by a gentleman by the name of Maurice Purify of Practice Squad. Further, Mr. Roethlisberger is stated to have 390 (!!) yards passing. Really? Look, in all seriousness, we understand the Bengals are a little banged up right now, but 7 points? A full touchdown for a team that is 6-2 and has looked pretty damned good doing it the last two weeks? And for all those people who are so concerned that Chris Henry’s injury is really going to hurt the Bengals offense, please do consider the fact that Henry had more than 2 catches or 36 yards receiving one time this season, and that was the same game, 3 for 92 vs. Baltimore the first time. He had all of 2 touchdowns. I recognize that he adds a deep threat to the Bengals offense, but I just don’t see it being that big of a deal. Carson loves to throw to Chad deep, and even without Jerome – who’s literal only skill at this point is running straight down the field and making acrobatic deep catches – Purify, Caldwell, Coles, and Ocho are plenty of talent out wide. As warned earlier in the week, the Bengals are a physical group on both sides of the ball and will not be intimidated by Pittsburgh’s own physicality. The two teams rank 1 and 2 in the standard NFL rushing yards allowed per game statistic, and with the Steelers’ addition of Rashard Mendenhall also feature two of the better bruising backs in the league. While we’re willing to perhaps concede that Ben Roethlisberger has a few more weapons to throw to, Cincinnati has the superior corners and will force “Ben” to win the game with Mike Wallace and Heath Miller rather than Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward behind a shaky O-Line. He almost did it the first game, but fell short after dominating 3 quarters to a Carson-led Cardiac Cat special. When we started looking at this game this week we felt the Steelers were the better team, and indeed perhaps the very best in the league. There’s no doubt they have played well on this 5-game winning streak, but the most physical team they played on that streak – the only one comparable from a physicality only standpoint to the Bengals – was the Minnesota Vikings, and the Vikings probably should have won that game. Carson Palmer will not gift games the way Brett Favre did that one, so I’m not convinced we’re looking at a runaway. These teams know each other well, and despite being 12-2 against the rest of the division at home with Mike Tomlin at the helm, Pittsburgh is only 3-3 against Marvin Lewis in that building. Hard to believe as it is, it was only 4 years ago when Cincinnati stormed into Pittsburgh and wrested the 2005 AFC North title from the Steelers. Can they do it again? Maybe, but we’re pretty sure whichever way it goes it will be by less than 7…

A Warning to the NFL

tide182 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:50:29 +0000

From FO’s “Cover-3″ article this week, linked here:

It’s typical to think of teams with great passing games and previously ineffective power blocking as “finesse”, but any opponent harboring that assumption about the current Bengals is making a very big mistake. This is as much a power team as any AFC North bully could be, with its stacked lines and inside running, and the schematic variations tell the story of a line with great confidence and continuity. If the Bengals capitalize on their hot start down the stretch, the line will be a major factor — with or without Andre Smith.

Could it Be?

tide182 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 17:41:08 +0000

I know Peter King would faint on the spot if he heard this, but dare I suggest that the NFL world is tiring of Colts-Pats? I’m going to be honest I’ve been tired of the matchup for a few years now, but just assumed given all of the media attention and general continued excellence of both franchises that the game still represented an unmatched rivalry in the league. It still might, but a poll I just saw over on ESPN.com has me thinking more than ever that the Pats-Colts NFL rivalry is starting to slide the way of the Yankees-Red Sox MLB rivalry circa about 3 years ago. You know, the point where ESPN and the major networks had bludgeoned the matchup into our heads with such incessant fervor that we reached our tipping point and the nation of MLB fans outside of Boston and New York grew loathe to even think about “the best rivalry in baseball.” At some point, I think, sports fans crave something new – even if it’s just for a several year interlude before getting back to the good stuff a la the Celtics-Lakers NBA rivalry – where we like to evaluate whether there are any newcomers to the elite rivalry party. Well, this week’s NFL entry is the rivalry between the Bengals and Steelers. Like Alabama-Auburn or Michigan-Ohio State, these teams and fans have always hated each other, but perhaps more along the lines of the former than the latter the rivalry has taken on more of a regional scope than that of the national glare – with 2005’s 3 game series being a notable exception – thanks in large part to the Bengals ineptitude. The Steelers have attempted – rather successfully I might add – to insert themselves into the self-fulfilling rivalry promotion triangle between the Pats, Colts and the networks over the past few years, going so far as to win a couple of Super Bowls and generally distinguish themselves as a better candidate for Team of the Decade than the Colts if not the Pats despite what King may believe. This wasn’t intended to be an extended post so I’ll get right to it, but despite the fact that Peter King dedicated 2 full pages to Pats-Colts this coming week in his review of LAST week’s games (and zero to Bengals-Steelers), today’s ESPN.com poll asked just shy of 32,000 people which matchup was more important this weekend: Pats-Colts or Bengals-Steelers. Granted, any answer here would not so much mark a definitive move away from Pats-Colts interest so much as an acknowledgment that it isn’t the only game, there are 28 other teams in the NFL, and, in fact, since the Pats and Colts aren’t even in the same division their regular season matchup is quite possibly nowhere near as big as it’s made out to be. Regardless, the answer – supported by more than 75% of the individual states as well – was 53% thought Bengals-Steelers to be the more important game. I will obviously try to watch Pats-Colts as well, but Amen to the recognition that there just might be another option out there.

NFL Musings – Week 9

tide182 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:02:32 +0000

And what a week it was in the NFL this past week; a week where we saw the ghosts of creamsicles past shock the Packers, the Broncos and Steelers be who the Flow thought they were, the Tribal Leaders launch one of the most excruciatingly irrelevant covers in recent memory, the Bears petition for Tennessee’s spot in the WTE division, and the Bengals…well the Bengals were just great. While this week’s picks weren’t dominant record wise, the comments behind the picks certainly bode well for a second half kick for the Flow as really only the 4th quarter massacre in the Bay of Pigs Bowl and Dallas’ continued resurgence truly surprised us. With that in mind, let’s take a walk through some weekly musings on the games that were:

To Consider:

1) Enough with the pregame circle jerks starring Ray “When does this start getting embarrassing for me after we give up 400 yards of offense weekly” Lewis and Brian “I’ve been on this team for half a season and I’m already yelling about protecting this house” Dawkins. I mean, seriously, have you seen these yahoos? Here’s Ray Lewis doing one from some recent game vs. the Giants, and here’s Dawkins doing his version plus a cheesy postgame speech. Of course, you don’t need to see those videos because you were probably watching either CBS’ or ESPN’s NFL coverage at some point this weekend, and there is nothing those two networks love more than to show a bunch of players hopping up and down in a circle 30 minutes before kickoff around some maniac yelling about disrespect (a maniac who is disrespected to the tune of being paid millions of dollars to play football, btw), protecting “his house,” declaring – completely contradictory to the fact that the other gentlemen are, in fact, in uniform ready to play – that the other team “doesn’t want to play us,” or some sort of “bring the pain” mantra. I saw two such displays this weekend: first, Ray Lewis right before his defense got rolled right over in the first half by a far more physical Bengals offense, and secondly Dawkins about 30 minutes and one half before the more physical Steelers completely wore down the Broncos undersized defense. Moral of the story: these little plays are ridiculous publicity stunts that may even deteriorate athletic performance through over-exertion and dehydration more than they actually perform any type of “pumping up.” Perhaps the Ravens should be less concerned about being pumped up, and more concerned with overrunning their gaps and playing disciplined defense so that this doesn’t happen anymore. I mean, really, a) these things happen 30 minutes before the game kicks off, so any potential adrenaline created has more than dissipated over that time, b) the other teams could care less what sort of dances you’re doing, especially when they aren’t even on the field and have already beaten you once this season, and finally c) ever heard of Murtaugh? You guys are too old for this sh*t.

2) Getting back to football for a second, we’ve also confirmed once and for all the blueprint to beat the Broncos. We linked to Pete Prisco’s take on this after the Baltimore game last week, and we also mentioned our suspicion that the Broncos were especially vulnerable to big, physical football teams at the point of attack. While the Broncos showed pretty well in the first half Monday night, they borderline collapsed in the second as Rashard Mendenhall gashed them for over 150 yards on the ground and Kyle Orton self-destructed on the other side of the ball. As we’ve mentioned all along, Denver must be perfect to win against good, physical teams and they were not on Monday. The problem, of course, is that to wear Denver down you’ve got to be in the lead early – no easy feat considering the Broncos outstanding first half defense – and be able to prevent the Broncos from leading their trademarked 9 play 51 yard drives for punts to win field position that also milk like 6 minutes off the clock. What the Steelers and Ravens are both excellent at, and what other teams will try to do, is to mix up a lot of blitzes with fire zones behind them to clog passing lanes on the short hot routes. Orton has struggled to read these zones, and the Denver O-Line is on the smaller side, making it vulnerable to big, bull rushing linebackers and strong nosetackle play. The result has not been pretty, as it does seem as if defenses are figuring out the fact that Orton cannot throw accurately beyond 15 yards at this point, so the ball is in Josh McDaniels’ court as far as adjusting back to the league’s initial adjustments to him. Denver’s remaining schedule – like many of the AFC contenders – contains 4 very winnable games (@WAS, @KC, OAK, KC) and 4 tougher games (SD, NYG, @IND, @PHI). I’m not convinced this Denver team is collapsing like last year’s, but I feel pretty good about the Broncos only going 1-3 in those toughies, leaving them potentially 11-5 if they sweep the easy ones. In this year’s AFC they will need to do that, but given that two of their tough ones would be out of conference losses, their playoff chances are still pretty good.

3) Peter King would like to announce that “Arizona’s dangerous.” Mmk, check, glad to hear Peter hasn’t written off the division leading, NFC defending champions.

4) Peter King would also like to announce Michael Oher – yes, that Michael Oher – as his ALL PRO RIGHT TACKLE for midseason. Before I get on a rant here, and believe me one is coming, let me first say I think Michael Oher is probably a really nice kid, certainly a promising prospect, and I wish him nothing but the best for him going forward. Now, here’s the only other person who probably voted for Oher as a midseason All-Pro:

Here’s what TMQ had to say about Oher in his weekly article:

The Nevermores’ offensive line is a mess — it allowed four sacks against Cincinnati, while clearing few rushing lanes — and the offensive line is always the best window into a team’s psychology. Right now, rookie left tackle Michael Oher looks terrible. Oher has, at a tender age, already had a lifetime of complex emotional experiences, plus been the subject of a book that’s been made into a big-studio movie that opens next week. When Oher was drafted, TMQ noted, “The true story of an impoverished African-American boy adopted by an affluent white family has obvious Hollywood appeal, but can any 22-year-old handle such media pressure?” Maybe Baltimore needs to take him out of the lineup for a while.

So one guy wants him to be benched, and the other calls him All-Pro? Of course I am more inclined to side with Easterbrook here, but let’s be fair and go to the stats. Football Outsiders uses something called Adjusted Line Yards to evaluate rushing success – and let’s start with rushing since run blocking is Oher’s strength – and we generally feel this is the best approximation of lineman success outside of detailed tape review. I know Peter King has not done the latter, so let’s start with the stats. On runs off right tackle, Oher’s position, the Ravens are averaging 4 ALY per carry, a respectable 16th in the league. Oher has also played some left tackle, so let’s use those as well, and we see a slightly worse 3.66 ALY figure, good for 19th best. These numbers aren’t too shabby, except when we look at the fact that overall Baltimore ranks 3rd in the league at ALY and they excel specifically at runs between the guards and all the way around right end. Now, maybe Oher is awesome at sealing the corner, but the fact that the Ravens aren’t so great when running right behind him suggests to me that he isnt quite “uber dominant” yet as a run blocker, especially considering how inferior they have been behind him as compared to everywhere else. Also, according to at least one count, Oher had given up 2.5 sacks as of October 22, and while sacks are often as much a result of the QB as the O-Line (paging Rodgers, Aaron) the fact of the matter is Flacco has been going down. To put that in perspective elite RT’s have been known to go SEASONS without giving up a single sack. I have also personally watched, and read others who have watched Oher get beat up the field by speed rushers and then abused by double moves. Look, I don’t know if Michael Oher is going to be great or not. I’m pretty sure he could be, and I’m pretty sure he’s doing fine for a rookie. That said, the idea, even the idea of having the idea, that he is remotely close to being the very best right tackle in the National Football League is somewhere between asinine and embarrassing. Either Peter King opted to have a little fun with his RT pick on his midseason All-Pro team, or… well you get the idea.

5) Moving on from Peter King, let’s leave you with some quick hits Peter King style just so he isn’t too angry at me (obvious sarcasm since he has more people following him for his “coffeenerdness,” ugh I can’t even say it without cringing, than I will ever have in my entire lifetime):

a) Houston is a good football team. They also have 4-5 easily winnable games left and just went toe to toe with the Colts. This team is a legitimate playoff contender. Note: It’s almost strange how just about every relevant team left in the AFC has 4 easy games and 4 tough games left as opposed to anyone being especially skewed.

b) The whole Qwest Field advantage thing for the Seahawks is dead to me. The Seahawks are dead to me. That was the softest cover ever at home against the Lions and it took 5 Matt Stafford INT’s including a pick 6 with 22 ticks remaining to do it. That pick 6, however, is why we gamble – what a worthless game, meaningless pick, even more meaningless return, but because the moron decides to take it to the house someone wins and someone loses. Awesome.

c) The 49ers justified our concern with that putrid home performance, though to be fair Tennessee is looking quite a bit feistier lately thanks largely to the fact that excellent rushing qb’s like Vince Young almost always result in an uptick in performance from the team’s RB’s thanks to the added delay and attention opposing LB’s give the QB scramble option. I’m tired and it’s late so I don’t have a link for that but remind me and I will, I promise it’s a real thing – FO writes about it all the time and I believe ESPN even had a piece on it this week. Back to the 9ers, though, the fact of the matter is they don’t have an NFL QB, and when Alex Smith/Shaun Hill/Hannah Montana is behind center creating 4 turnovers a game, you put yourself in a tough spot.

d) An ESPN.com poll of about 32,000 people today displayed the fact that 53% of “SportsNation” considers the Bengals-Steelers showdown this week to be a bigger game than Pats-Colts. As someone who has begun to tire of the whole Manning-Brady “rivalry,” this struck me as progress. In honor of that, we leave this week’s musings with a nice shot of one of the lovely Ben-Gals. Enjoy.